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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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I just commented in the NY thread…I smell smoke on the breeze.  The air down here is thick with haze, as bad as its been this week.  
 

Is it from Canada or is it something else?  This has happened before about 13 yrs ago when Colorado was on fire so it is possible.

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38 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I just commented in the NY thread…I smell smoke on the breeze.  The air down here is thick with haze, as bad as its been this week.  
 

Is it from Canada or is it something else?  This has happened before about 13 yrs ago when Colorado was on fire so it is possible.

 

50.4F on the other side of the cold front up here.. Behind the cold front the air is crystal clear.  About .10 with the convection.  Awaiting the afront rain coming in.

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bad news.   Got caught in a downpour while walking the dog

Good news.  Saw our neighbor who works at the company that does the canning for Carlson Orchards.  He gave us two four packs of hard cider.  
 

win

Bad news was on the 6th hole and it down poured and with the wind I got soaked. Good news, we won the match anyway. Didn't even have time to get my raincoat out it came so suddenly, I just got the bag cover down in time so my bag didn't get soaked.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gotta keep it wet. 

We joke and jest, but sometimes it strikes me as amazing how plants and vegetation ever survived prior to artificial watering :lol:.

Good examples of fake cold last night… temp bouncing all over. 36-37F, then puff of wind and it’s 45F, then back to 30s, cloud overhead back to mid-40s, etc.

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Well wouldn't you know ... the models just couldn't resist and now they've engineered a BD for Memorial Day...

It's more or less defined depending which guidance, Euro being strongest ... GGEM between the GFS which is weakest, but they all have it. 

Thing is, the GOM and whole Labradorian rectal realm is still holding back shockingly chilly farts at this time of year ... So, when/if the model physics detect boundaries moving SW like that, we have to be leery of the reality being a 1,500' slab of chillier air at very low levels that hints aromas of cold Atlantic low tide, even as far inland as 30 or 40 miles. I've scented that in Ayer in the past, and I'm west of 495 by 10 miles... 

The reason for this is they are introducing a stronger trough diving out of NE Quebec toward the outer Maritime region, whilst also opting to lower heights over us little over previous runs.  So that fans a cold from SE aft, demarcating the SW moving dense air and there's no way to stop it ...

Fwiw - it's not unusual at all around here to fail a clean move into a warm pattern without that kind of interruption yanking the temperature back for 30 hours.  That's precisely what the models are attempting to do; a total evolution between Sat and later next week that contains a BD interrupt. Saturday bounces back from today and tomorrow's local time span nadir, Sunday is the warm day, and then Monday gets butt banged by 10 am and all those cook outs end up under 54 F strata - Boston Celtic's pattern

Doesn't mean it has to happen... but the 00z was D4.5 ... and it would almost make sense that this 12z, being D4 ... would be the window of performance thing where the models get more coherent all at once, and then all these forecasters have to face the music.  Hopefully not in favor of BD - ... 

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We joke and jest, but sometimes it strikes me as amazing how plants and vegetation ever survived prior to artificial watering :lol:.

Good examples of fake cold last night… temp bouncing all over. 36-37F, then puff of wind and it’s 45F, then back to 30s, cloud overhead back to mid-40s, etc.

Well I'm trying to get some more seed to germinate. Other plants just fine. 

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