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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


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Well we are just under a week from May which means two things

1) Start of severe season 

2) Consistently nicer weather with warmer temperatures 

Obviously given the hemispheric configuration, we're looking a bit unsettled and on the chilly side at times, especially overnight. However, there could be a pretty significant warmup perhaps moving through the second week of May towards mid-month as there are some signals for troughing to return to the west with ridging building east. 

May can be a fun month with drastic differences between the start of the month and end of the month. May can also surprise with some decent severe events and a few of our biggest have come in May :D 

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The only 2 near-severe TS here, 2005 and last year, came in the 2nd week of June.  And the massive tree-stripping hailstorm a few miles to our SE was on Aug 30, 2007.  
Top TS months, avg/yr:
JULY    4.4
JUNE   3.3
AUG     3.2
MAY     1.3
SEPT    1.0
Annual avg:  14.9, but only 11.2 over the past 5 years.

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I'm talking Severe. Yesterday was a primer - just 5 miles to my S had baseball size HAIL. Freezing levels are around 15-20k ft. Towers are starting to go up, any cells that build over 30k are capable (strong updraft) of going severe! 
LEGIT SEVERE! Vehicles in the carport! These can be scary; you don't want to be in one.
Watch pending. The AFD mentions to be watchful that's a first.

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So this weekend looks like a top 20 ... maybe top 10.

More so Sunday, but both days have a shot.

850s rise to +5 C and low RH at typical cloud heights (ie, mainly sun) in May no less ... will undoubtedly send realized 2-meter Ts above machine guidance. 

Near 70 Sat and in the 70s Sun. Light wind.

Predicated on the notion that things don't change between now and then, of course.

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Here you go, Kev'

Starting to see semblances of the western/tropical Pacific forcing. I've been discussing it for the past week while in wait of this type of model depiction. "Should" see more of this essence emerge. 

Former Pac forcing is a legit powerful observed factor, and I've been suspecting that it's just not yet ( to date) been very well sampled - therefore ... not ingesting into the initialization framework for the global guidance sources.  But, we see now Phase 3--> 4 is occurring and I don't think this solution below is a merely coincidence.  It is in fact, right on schedule.

Like I said... the 2nd week of May - that's the way I'm still leaning for now.  Which isn't that far away so.   


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  • weatherwiz changed the title to May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!
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