USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Fiction. We have not....not even technically el nino yet per ONI. The evidence is the subsurface and guidance. Ray, is your avatar the Blizzard of 2015 on the EURO one of its runs before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 In the meantime, really surprised by how well it's snowing today. Feels like mid winter for sure. It's going to make it that much more painful when Friday comes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ray, is your avatar the Blizzard of 2015 on the EURO one of its runs before the storm? Euro never showed a map like that. It continously jacked NJ/NYC into WCT. We know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro never showed a map like that. It continously jacked NJ/NYC into WCT. We know how that worked out. I had never felt such weather anger as I did that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, alex said: In the meantime, really surprised by how well it's snowing today. Feels like mid winter for sure. It's going to make it that much more painful when Friday comes! Wow, didn't realize you had that much up there, that's one of our vacation spots along with Powderfreaks area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro never showed a map like that. It continously jacked NJ/NYC into WCT. We know how that worked out. Yes, it did towards the last two days before the storm, it corrected east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, alex said: In the meantime, really surprised by how well it's snowing today. Feels like mid winter for sure. It's going to make it that much more painful when Friday comes! How does it feel to have that much snow on the ground? I miss that feeling greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Wow, didn't realize you had that much up there, that's one of our vacation spots along with Powderfreaks area. Seems SNE doesn’t quite grasp just how much snow has fallen in NNE , esp at 1K we kno how cold it’s been. Huge gradient this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is awesome....January may very well be colder than I had anticipated because I didn't expect a SSW. HM was saying that the last time that he saw this profound a signal was January 2004 (Steve may nail the brutal cold)....now imagine overlaid onto a weak modoki canvas.....not saying that it will happen again, but I agree with Tip that this season should be the February 2015....not that season If that makes sense? That's a lot of good news and I hope it works out. Last year's Feb SSW event completely turned things around. Unfortunately it was a little late in the season for us NYC metro folks but even then we still managed a rockin March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Wow, didn't realize you had that much up there, that's one of our vacation spots along with Powderfreaks area. 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How does it feel to have that much snow on the ground? I miss that feeling greatly. A lot of people are surprised. Had a meeting with a wedding planner this morning who came up from Portland and was shocked - she wanted to see the yard, firepit etc lol. I like having a deep pack, for sure, although I'm more into watching it fall than the pack itself. Of course, the combination of the 2 is the holy grail. Hopefully we rebuild fast after this cutter, we've had a deep snowpack for quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I had never felt such weather anger as I did that day. I was in NY at the time and had to sleep over at work because of the expected 3 feet coming. I woke up to about 8”. Oh how that stung!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 A lot of people are surprised. Had a meeting with a wedding planner this morning who came up from Portland and was shocked - she wanted to see the yard, firepit etc lol. I like having a deep pack, for sure, although I'm more into watching it fall than the pack itself. Of course, the combination of the 2 is the holy grail. Hopefully we rebuild fast after this cutter, we've had a deep snowpack for quite a whileI have a feeling that January will be quite active and into February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes, it did towards the last two days before the storm, it corrected east. lol, no. It was correcting east every run but It still had 30+ for swct at 12z when snow was already falling. Epic busts and meltdowns out west. It’s why many weenies hate the model nowadays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Isotherm and others alluded to changes that the models might go through and it's starting to happen. There is a chance of some snow on Xmas. The gefs is colder for the 27th storm and the nye storm is also colder and further south on the gefs. I think the models are having a tough time in regards to the ssw event. Fun times ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Isotherm and others alluded to changes that the models might go through and it's starting to happen. There is a chance of some snow on Xmas. The gefs is colder for the 27th storm and the nye storm is also colder and further south on the gefs. I think the models are having a tough time in regards to the ssw event. Fun times ahead Hope So..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 We squalled, Modis visible of the squall deposits from last night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro never showed a map like that. It continously jacked NJ/NYC into WCT. We know how that worked out. Its the EURO the first run that it caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Para gfs trying for the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 21 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I have noted this multiple times, but KBOS really stands out low on the precip front. Almost every year. I don't see that as coincidence, but I'm not sure what it could be other than issues with instrumentation. I would need to see other sites, but you have some samples not far from the city. We were split a lot during the summer and even some of the synoptic storms. Seemed like we had a forcefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 36 minutes ago, jamesnichols1989 said: I have a feeling that January will be quite active and into February Yup, usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Para cookng up a beast for nye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, jamesnichols1989 said: I have a feeling that January will be quite active and into February 55 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes, it did towards the last two days before the storm, it corrected east. James...pick a username and stick with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We squalled, Modis visible of the squall deposits from last night That's pretty cool, nice find Ginxy. Looks like a lot of the mesomodels that have those NW flow streaks of light QPF across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its the EURO the first run that it caught on. That was a magical day. We were kind of distracted by an ongoing 5 or 6 inch wet snow, which at the time was the biggest event of the season. Euro led the way in the overnight runs and everything else came on board at 12z. Went from nothing to a HECS in the modeling within a few short cycles. Special. First of three 20"+ storms, and 4 12"+ in the following weeks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: That was a magical day. We were kind of distracted by an ongoing 5 or 6 inch wet snow, which at the time was the biggest event of the season. Euro led the way in the overnight runs and everything else came on board at 12z. Went from nothing to a HECS in the modeling within a few short cycles. Special. First of three 20"+ storms, and 4 12"+ in the following weeks lol. I mean the run that shifted the jack out of NYC....but yea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Ha, Maue just added 45 day snowfall to his model site now. He posted a teaser on Twitter that actually supports much of the discussion in here. Disclaimer: snow maps are garbage, BUT they do highlight the potential pattern. The absolute number of snowfall is a WAG from the EPS, but given that little to no snow falls in New England between now and New Years, all of the accumulated model snow is for the month of January. So pointing towards an above normal snowfall month. I was wondering about those numbers on the wxbell site. Like have they derived some sort of model climatology for the snow being forecasted? Or is it just a thing that throws out number that we just accept to have meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Sorry, Dendrite. I was on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para gfs trying for the 27th 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para cookng up a beast for nye Non-para GFS still looks like dog dung. No mention of EURO lends me to believe it's similarly dung-like as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Shortwave on euro isn't terrible for Xmas eve. If the goal is to merely get enough (say 1-2") for a white Christmas then it's still worth watching. The shortwave behind it is a little more intriguing. Something perhaps brewing for the 26-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I was wondering about those numbers on the wxbell site. Like have they derived some sort of model climatology for the snow being forecasted? Or is it just a thing that throws out number that we just accept to have meaning? I believe it is just mean snowfall for the 51 members (snow includes sleet at 10:1, so probably a little high bias). But seeing the EPS spit out 40+ inches in 45 days definitely signals the potential for above average snowfall pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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