40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: My point is I don’t think we need to role the dice as much as the M.A -NYC crowd with a SSW and hoping for the best from that Well, you said that "we need the starts to align''...was not at all clear that that is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My point is I don’t think we need to role the dice as much as the M.A -NYC crowd with a SSW and hoping for the best from that so it’s a bit more bullish for areas south Blocking is always great...I would rather take my chances with having too much than playing pin the tail on the pig like we have been. Its difficult to whiff consistently with with an active n stream like we see in weak modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My point is I don’t think we need to role the dice as much as the M.A -NYC crowd with a SSW and hoping for the best from that Yeah I see what you are saying. You don't want to risk January 2004 or 09-10. I'm not particularly worried about those even in the case of a strong SSW and strong -AO...esp with the northern stream staying a little more dominant ...but I can see where the fear comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Models heading right back into a snowy week next week after the faux warming . Isotherm FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I think the frustration is having a decent December pattern for 2/3 or so of month and risking one of the lower snow December’s ever. I know for me it is. We had the cold, but just haven’t strung anything together. Really since mid November or so. We’ll see see what the rest of the month does, but it’s a kick in the nads for sure. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Models heading right back into a snowy week next week after the faux warming . Isotherm FTW Where and how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Where and how? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Blocking is always great...I would rather take my chances with having too much than playing pin the tail on the pig like we have been. Yeah this is my view. I do understand the PTSD that happens when you watch philly get 20" of snow while you we're smoking cirrus and the south coast is having radar hallucinations. But those tend to be the exception and not the rule. There's far more Jan 96, Feb 83, Jan '87, or Feb '03 than those ones or even favoring NE itself like Feb '69, Jan/Feb '78, Jan '05, Jan/Feb '15, etc. Ill usually take the blocking and worry about details later. Our longitude sticking out east gives us margin for error on that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: ?? How do you see a snowy week? Tell me what you looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: How do you see a snowy week? Tell me what you looked at. Euro with a Chance Xmas Eve again with the SW and the one on the 26/27. That’s 2 shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: How do you see a snowy week? Tell me what you looked at. Probably getting overconfident on 12/24 and 12/26 even though they could easily go poof again or in the case of 12/24 never really look like more than a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the frustration is having a decent December pattern for 2/3 or so of month and risking one of the lower snow December’s ever. I know for me it is. We had the cold, but just haven’t strung anything together. Really since mid November or so. We’ll see see what the rest of the month does, but it’s a kick in the nads for sure. Oh well. It sucks, but everyone should have been prepared for dissapointment in an el nino December...some tried to toss el nino climo and go big, but it usually won't work. If things had broken more favorably, it would have been a good month, but not Dec 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro with a Chance Xmas Eve again with the SW and the one on the 26/27. That’s 2 shots Christmas Eve has been on and off so I’d hold off on sounding confident. There may be a small one after, then we enter the gradient where these could shred, cut, or snow. The week after Christmas does have cutter potential along as snow. I would hold off for the lurkeyboys if the world as the pattern could shake out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It sucks, but everyone should have been prepared for dissapointment in an el nino December...some tried to toss el nino climo and go big, but it usually won't work. If things had broken more favorably, it would have been a good month, but not Dec 2007. It wasn’t your typical pig AK trough though. Was more bad luck. If we can score a couple of events near or after Christmas I’d defintely rate the month better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Christmas Eve has been on and off so I’d hold off on sounding confident. There may be a small one after, then we enter the gradient where these could shred, cut, or snow. The week after Christmas does have cutter potential along as snow. I would like to lurk a few boys in the world and maybe shake out their weenies Why are you lurking with boys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It wasn’t your typical pig AK trough though. Was more bad luck. If we can score a couple of events near or after Christmas I’d defintely rate the month better. I understand that, but it wouldn't have been anything epic....one major storm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: It wasn’t your typical pig AK trough though. Was more bad luck. If we can score a couple of events near or after Christmas I’d defintely rate the month better. We def got a bit unlucky dec 5-10. Whiffed on two shots there. Kind of a bummer but oh well. Maybe we pull a nice one in the next 10-12 days before month-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We def got a bit unlucky dec 5-10. Whiffed on two shots there. Kind of a bummer but oh well. Maybe we pull a nice one in the next 10-12 days before month-end. Agreed. I think its safe to assume that one should have worked out, which is what I had expected in my outlook. Bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Looks like the euro ensembles have a weak signal for the 24 and 26. Then gear up for a cutter after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro with a Chance Xmas Eve again with the SW and the one on the 26/27. That’s 2 shots Awfully excited about the 0.03" QPF aren't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Awfully excited about the 0.03" QPF aren't we? Hey.. We’ll grab 1-2” Xmas Eve in SNE to be festive and then look forward to a possible moderate event 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Awfully excited about the 0.03" QPF aren't we? If it's the only qpf ya got, then you must run with it and enjoy every inch .03" of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Hey.. We’ll grab 1-2” Xmas Eve in SNE to be festive and then look forward to a possible moderate event 2 days later Hasn't this one been waffling around, back and forth for few days now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It sucks, but everyone should have been prepared for dissapointment in an el nino December...some tried to toss el nino climo and go big, but it usually won't work. If things had broken more favorably, it would have been a good month, but not Dec 2007. The same el nino forcing that hasn’t shown up yet? Which way is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hey.. We’ll grab 1-2” Xmas Eve in SNE to be festive and then look forward to a possible moderate event 2 days later I mean never mind who you're quoting, but that verbatim clown map of the Euro is actually only showing T-0.5" and 0.5-1" through CT which is definitely not 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I mean overall the Euro look, despite QPF, is pretty weakly forced and not good for much more than mood flakes as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: The same el nino forcing that hasn’t shown up yet? Which way is it? I said el nino CLIMO is for not much snow in December...not forcing. Stop, read and breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Nothing siggy for a while. Ryan Allen booting them to the 1 for now... We need Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said el nino CLIMO is for not much snow in December...not forcing. Stop, read and breathe. Actually you said we’re not even technically in an el nino “yet”. Ok I’m breathing now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nothing siggy for a while. Ryan Allen booting them to the 1 for now... We need Leon He shanks them every now and then, maybe we get lucky and we get one that rolls out at the 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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