December Discussion II

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

About .3" or so and everything white including street. Not bad. Still snowing.

Same here. Nice surprise didnt see it on the models.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Same here. Nice surprise didnt see it on the models.

There was a few signs on the QPF fields, but more aggressive than I thought too. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I did say that blocking would vanish before xmas and there would be intervals of RNA early....close enough.

I don't think its full steam ahead until like 1/20...people are going to get ahead of themselves and drive themselves nuts with blueballz...."bust this" and "bust that"..."winter cancel".

Your forecast was very close. Ultimately I think December will end up between +1 and +2 thanks to the big cutter later this week.

[8611Blizz]

First salt run of the year.  Nasty icing as it turned colder. Down to 25.1 now.

[weathafella]

A small amount of snow otg this morning.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro still has the Xmas Eve snower 

[Damage In Tolland]

Weeklies also went winter early Jan as many of us except Pickles and Runaway surmised 

 

[weathafella]

Wintry this morning.  Snow came overnight (maybe .3), windy, cold...everyone stay positive!

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Dusting in places, (.1"), third dusting event this month

[STILL N OF PIKE]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wintry this morning.  Snow came overnight (maybe .3), 

Milk and bread

hooing for a massive ice storm near nye 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro still has the Xmas Eve snower 

It’s gone 

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles never bought it. Maybe it comes back, but I’m not confident on that. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro still has the Xmas Eve shutout

Really? Someone named blizz promised even more snow. Where would we even put it 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

December is shot. It’s just not a good hemispheric look in the mid to  long range. Hopefully the seasonal guys and gals sniff this out....it doesn’t look nino esque atm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weeklies also went winter early Jan as many of us except Pickles and Runaway surmised 

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro still has the Xmas Eve snower 

? no it doesn't

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

? no it doesn't

The wave is still there in Rh fields. It’ll come back at surface 

[dendrite]

700mb RH will save us

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

700mb RH will save us

Those 3 runs with precip were suspect from the get go. Its gone, gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday.

[OceanStWx]

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think this is the report I recall reading. Guess I need to put up a tall dual fence around my rain gauge now for maximum accuracy. Maybe put it inside the run?

https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/ASOS Implementation/AWPAG Altershield Final Report 08-09 v2.doc

Yeah, the double screens are key. Though the screens are a pain the rear to get inside to clean equipment. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Those 3 runs with precip were suspect from the get go. Its gone, gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok, that makes zero sense. Op runs are running much colder week of 23rd to 28th than Ens, Euro also is hinting at a good clipper the 27th. Ray is not starting winter until his KU? IDK bout that

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

December is shot. It’s just not a good hemispheric look in the mid to  long range. Hopefully the seasonal guys and gals sniff this out....it doesn’t look nino esque atm. 

The mjo is ruining it right now but it's going to change.

45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. 

It's coming back near NYE

[alex]

3.25" overnight, not bad! Still snowing. Stake up to 14". 

[Typhoon Tip]

Lot of comparing the hemispheric appeal as being either Nina or Nino ...but doing so in the context of blaming a less than desirable December on the former.

Which is it ...? 

I ask that because we can't have it both ways.  In a "better semblance" Nino year, the statistics are signaling less cold and snow in December anyway...with winters tending to be back-end. 

So are we to infer that Nina's also have poor Decembers?  That may be. I don't honestly get that intimate with this stuff..  I don't pour over tedious decimal intervals of ENSO anomalies and compare them to hundreds of Decembers.  Sufficed it is to say, we are neutral-positive in the ENSO with a prediction to more coherently warming as the winter progresses...  Here's the rub (for me..) in a global atmospheric environment that is warm already, and therefor ... no triggering (via established gradient) an ENSO forcing has likely thresheld in the first place.

In other words, it's nadda - neither Nina or Nino "caused" - it may look like Nina, okay... but just in case, I think any confusion might be allayed by the notion that there prooobably shouldn't be any blaming/mentioning of it in the first place.  We could just as easily have ended upo with more -EPO ... and then we'd-a had what?  A cold shot  and and a storm or two in a month that warm ENSO was supposed to be a bad performer. In the antithesis to present performing month...it is not hard to visualize  that getting a by-line in a post but by and large most people just ignoring that little incongruity in lieu of their spoils. 

And around and around we go in the reel of simply not facing the fact that it's just not realistically going to be boreal every December every year.  Eat it in other words... good to have other hobbies when things are frustrating you.

In the end ... it may just turn out that the 'Nino's tend to have bad December' part of this is just simply getting satisfied.

[MJO812]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Wintry this morning.  Snow came overnight (maybe .3), windy, cold...everyone stay positive!

Yea, I didn't see it at home in Methuen, but there is a coating here at work in Saugus..

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lot of comparing the hemispheric appeal as being either Nina or Nino ...but doing so in the context of blaming a less than desirable December on the former.

Which is it ...? 

I ask that because we can't have it both ways.  In a "better semblance" Nino year, the statistics are signaling less cold and snow in December anyway...with winters tending to be back-end. 

So are we to infer that Nina's also have poor Decembers?  That may be. I don't honestly get that intimate with this stuff..  I don't pour over tedious decimal intervals of ENSO anomalies and compare them to hundreds of Decembers.  Sufficed it is to say, we are neutral-positive in the ENSO with a prediction to more coherently warming as the winter progresses...  Here's the rub (for me..) in a global atmospheric environment that is warm already, and therefor ... no triggering (via established gradient) an ENSO forcing has likely thresheld in the first place.

In other words, it's nadda - neither Nina or Nino "caused" - it may look like Nina, okay... but just in case, I think any confusion might be allayed by the notion that there prooobably shouldn't be any blaming/mentioning of it in the first place.  We could just as easily have ended upo with more -EPO ... and then we'd-a had what?  A cold shot  and and a storm or two in a month that warm ENSO was supposed to be a bad performer. In the antithesis to present performing month...it is not hard to visualize  that getting a by-line in a post but by and large most people just ignoring that little incongruity in lieu of their spoils. 

And around and around we go in the reel of simply not facing the fact that it's just not realistically going to be boreal every December every year.  Eat it in other words... good to have other hobbies when things are frustrating you.

That's a good point....la nina forcing in December is actually more prolific than that of el nino.......no absolutes, though.

[Typhoon Tip]

This excerpt from the Washington Post had me grinning... 

"...Winter got off to a fast start in the Lower 48 even before it was technically winter. Waves of cold gripped the eastern two-thirds of the United States and several winter storms tracked across the region.

Conditions have since eased relaxed some, but the heart of winter lies ahead. Will cold and snowy conditions return and turn more harsh? .... "

Gee -

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, alex said:

3.25" overnight, not bad! Still snowing. Stake up to 14". 

John up in Pittsburg snagged 6"

We kind of missed this moderate upslope event in the forecast. We did have some likely PoP, but really just our standard 1-2 inches accumulation. Looks like a pretty large area of near advisory level snows for Coos anyway.