OceanStWx

Is there an OT thread there where people can fight about who is stealing snow?

Just seeing this now. Big help I know. I don't recall seeing something quite like this. Maybe a whole box upgraded to a Tornado Watch as situational awareness changes. I would just look back at the timing and reasoning in the MCDs and watch texts: MCD issued 1230 pm - SVR watch issued at 230 pm - TOR watch issued 255 pm - MCD issued 326 pm explaining things intensified more than expected I would prefer a MCD explaining the reasoning first, but maybe there was ongoing discussion between WFOs and SPC behind the scenes and it needed to happen fast.

I don't really have any reason to doubt it based on the radar signatures.

Big boy wind. You can see what a mess wind like this going through a forest would make when trying to figure out if it is tornadic or not. On the velocity front, keep in mind that it is radial velocity, so some component of that wind was not being sampled since it was not directly parallel to the radial. I would say 60 mph would be the lower bound of the estimated wind.

Nah it was the webbed hand of his sleep demon knocking on the door. Dual-pol instantaneous rates are consistently pushing 6-8"/hr with that thing though.

NHC doesn't have the courage to name it.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

“The lightning did most brightly rend the heavens that night.”

Well before my time, so I don't know. But Canadians have dual-pol as well, so TDSs are possible to observe. I'm pretty sure I've seen a couple outside my forecast area.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get severe elevated hail overnight given those morning soundings to our west. Plenty of support for that.

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.