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OceanStWx

Meteorologist
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About OceanStWx

  • Birthday 09/24/1983

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KPWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Portland, ME

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  1. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    MVY now in a dead heat with SLK at 26 for coldest in the Northeast.
  2. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    I saw the sensor dropped out last night with the -0 readings. But what's the difference with PVD nearly -5 for the month?
  3. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    30/29 at MVY, what a pit.
  4. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    I think the hottest I've dealt with was a trip to Pinehurst for my dad's 60th in 2012 and they were ripping off triple digits with humidity every day. I think the heat peaked around 104 with dews in the 70s. The dews were better in DVN of course thanks to the corn/soy. My new favorite heat experience was on the honeymoon last year, we're touring around Bora Bora in the canopied back of a truck. Looks like the station on the island recording a high of 89 (which is hot for the middle of the Pacific, remember HI's record high is "only" 98). The tour took us up to some lookouts, to some old WWII guns, that sort of thing doing a big loop around the island. At our first stop a new husband quit because it was "too hot," and got his wife to walk back to their hotel (it was the last pick up spot so we were close). I found that pretty soft. I didn't fly halfway across the globe to sit in the AC and try and find a station in English.
  5. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    Also the best chance for exceeding normals is actually NNE, so wagons north.
  6. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    Interpretation FTL. For SNE this actually corresponds to about +0.5 over the course of JJA. A "normal" distribution would be 33.3% for above, near, and below normal, with a 10% chance of exceeding the 90th and 10th percentiles. Basically this forecast shifts that to 52%, 33%, 15% above, near, below normal, and an 18% chance of exceeding 90th, and 2% chance of exceeding the 10th percentiles. More likely we're above than below normal, but by no means a furnace forecast. Now granted they do this by climate division, but the 10th percentile for SNE is 71 degrees (mean temp) and last summer BDL was exactly 71 degrees, which is actually below normal for the Tarmac (-0.4). So you could repeat last summer and this forecast could still be right for the climate division.
  7. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    That's not super common. Quick sort through our nearby(ish) coop data and Gorham almost pulled it off in 2015 (43 in August). Bethlehem did in 2001. Find a station like Lancaster with a longer POR, and you can find 1957, 1960, 1975-1978, 1981-1983, 1985-1987, 1992. But that's also a bit north of you, but seems to match the frequency of a place like Pinkham Notch.
  8. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    Real men grill in winter. Although to be honest late Feb was the best grilling weather of the season so far.
  9. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    I believe it is just to denote "extended" forecast vs. the MAV which is the same GFS data but higher temporal resolution, short term guidance.
  10. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    Hermit Lake got 5.7" last night and still have 70" on the ground. Deep, deep winter.
  11. Hmm, they didn't officially become a contracted coop until 1938, but there might be paper obs here somewhere. I do know their December record low is -46 from 1933. So chances are that would be the peak of the cold shot.
  12. It wasn't until van Dijk arrived that I even heard about the fact that Lovren had been playing on his off foot for years to accommodate other defenders in the side. And I loved watching Coutinho, but it is funny that he got bounced by Roma who now play Liverpool. Goes to show you how sometimes these players aren't advised the best by their agents.
  13. Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

    This smells like one of those events where we get the report from John up in Pittsburg that is 2-3 times our forecast. Northerly tends to favor his area more so than a more westerly flow that lights up the Greens.
  14. They still make me nervous basically any time they have to defend, but boy what an enjoyable team to watch go forward. And Mo Salah has to be one of the most likable players in the Premier League.
  15. NNE Winter Thread

    A nice -7.2 for MVL so far this month. An average of 40/24 for max/min. That's like a full month behind normal.
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