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    Portland, ME

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  1. This is a good example of how we don't need it all either. 700 mb didn't get cranking and close off until well east of the area, but there was still plenty of fronotgenesis going on as it was trying. 850 did close off within range for a lot of the area. Plenty of upper level support with this one, without the classic look.
  2. Ratios were really good up this way, but it is going to be on the rare occasion that any forecaster goes straight 20:1 on their snowfall. 50% of all snow events nationally have ratios between 9 and 16:1. But there are definitely times when you need to deviate. We're moving more and more towards forecasting snow ratios grids to get our snowfall grids, so they matter. One key stat, 75% of all warning events see the max VV at or just below a saturated DGZ, but only 10% of advisory events see this same cross-hair signature. So having an advisory up with the NAM forecast soundings (see my previous post) looking the way they did should've been a bigger Scooter caution flag.
  3. Now we move on to weenie WTF mode. Clearly it was a pretty crappy forecast on our part. The question is why. I was out of town and not plugged in, but a quick review of some previous model cycles shows some definite signs that we had an over-performer on our hands. I really wish I hadn't come into this event cold, but alas. The 12z run of the NAM Saturday was definitely headed into a "take 'em up" scenario. Check out the 850 mb VV, and 925 mb theta-e. There is a pretty pronounced signal for some inverted trof focusing of precip into SE NH and SW ME. \ Not only is there a theta-e axis in that area, but convergence too. I also though this forecast sounding around 09z last night (21 hour lead time) was interesting. That's at GYX. Check out the max VV (red bars on the left), just in a below the heart of the DGZ. Not only that but right in the max VV zone was at least a conditionally unstable layer, more likely a MAUL signature. Prime argument for bumping ratios up.
  4. This is nice, we're getting the rare 1 1/2SM 1"/hr snowfall. I think there are just so many aggregates that it is keeping the visibility up, while still accumulating efficiently.
  5. Nice snow growth at GYX right now. 1.9" and a few hours of snow left. Going to be close.
  6. I think the southern section could be in trouble, but the forcing farther east may actually get a bump late tonight when the low really matures (like Will was saying for eastern parts of SNE). At least it's an advisory and not a warning.
  7. Super Soaker Sunday (& Monday)

    HRRR has a fairly pronounced cold tuck across NH tomorrow afternoon when that little low slips by. Just enough to keep things interesting.
  8. Super Soaker Sunday (& Monday)

    A few bottles of Edward or Abner will do that.
  9. NNE Winter Thread

    I'm thinking Route 90-ski sounds better.
  10. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    And yet here we are hitting F5 for the next panel of the 18z GFS.
  11. That's definitely their point for the summit, but it is not their total for the season so far, so my guess is there is some smoothing going on to make the map look pretty.
  12. Happy 5th Anniversary Blizz of Feb 13

    Came in for the day shift Saturday morning (8 AM) to heavy OES already occurring. Evening shift called in sick, so I pulled a double until midnight. Got about 3 hours sleep down the road in Gray before waking up to be in by 4 AM for the next day shift. Finally came home for good at 6 PM, where snow was piled in the center of Commercial Street in Portland up to the second story.
  13. NNE Winter Thread

    Yep. Heavy rain cancel.