OceanStWx

I did not mean that. New England is going to be inverted in all likelihood.

NAM forecasts for PA/NY are in the 65 degree range, which leads to LCLs around 1000 m. So I would say about in the middle, not bad but not great either.

Shear is pretty impressive on recent NAM runs. > 60 kt 0-6 km and approaching that for 0-3 km shear. That points towards potentially higher end severe no matter the mode (discrete or squall line), especially when factoring in lapse rates aloft. I'll be curious to see what the 00z ARW/NMM runs look like.

Meh on the EML there, but the elevated CAPE was all nicely situated in the hail growth zone and shear was more than sufficient for supercells.

I mean that's actually not a bad look for nocturnal elevated severe convection even east of the slight risk. CON is like 1500 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear approaching 40 knots. I'd hit that.

I'm not positive of all the parameterization schemes for the CAMs, but they are designed to overturn the atmosphere. So sometimes they do it in an environment that isn't going to turn over.

Well there is a bias for some CAMs to over-mix the boundary layer, which would artificially enhance low level lapse rates. RAP/HRRR models would definitely be in this camp.

I think too much cloud cover (maybe as a result of all the WAA) limited 0-3 km lapse rates. If WAA was elevated to start there was no mechanism to draw in surface air. If you aren't surface based you aren't getting tornadoes.

Really interesting "null" case on a high risk actually. Ryan pointed out on Twitter last night that there was a little WAA/subsidence over OK that capped things a bit, but also you had really weak 0-3 km lapse rates (5.3 C/km). The analog event (April 2011) BMX had 8.8 C/km.

Nice storm about to blast PVD, grew up a little from Ginxy's.

They are a little close to the warm front I think.

I mean most likely it was a cyclic supercell that produced several long track tornadoes. It's consistent with that type of evolution.

I love that SPC is geeking out over HCRs in the discussion graphic. As anxious as they are, this is what they live to do.

SPC is drilling down on their threat area within the larger threat area. That first MCD definitely highlights one of their zones.