OceanStWx

I wouldn't say that AFD went wild, but it describes a model that went wild. I'm just not all in on a NAM 3 km solution.

Yeah, I would like to see the 00z HREF start honking more if there is any hope at an upgrade. Right now looking more like isolated severe.

That's what my practice swing always looks like. I honestly think 90% of my problems could be solved with a "slow back and accelerate through" but I tend to accelerate back and overswing. I know I'm doomed when I can see the club head out of my left eye cross the plane at the top of my backswing (I'm right handed).

Is this for E Mass trying to steal your snow?

Closed it, but I think the max I saw was MVL with 12.

Average 3, median 4 at BML 4 and 4 for MVL.

Probably going to get a solid rain band lift north tonight. Some will get a good drink, some may only get around a quarter. Definitely not a widespread flash flood look.

I literally have no idea how this even happens. The forecast (from pretty much every outlet I've seen) has been no big deal the entire time. Maybe, maybe there was messaging about flash flood risk early one, but that was pretty quickly changed to localized threat.

BTV has more than twice as many hours above 90 degrees as BDL. So considering your elevation, BTV probably has you by 3 maybe 4 times.

We've actually capped our surface temp from pressure level at 25C at 850 mb.

I prefer the lakes, but there's something to be said for the beaches if you're trying to escape the heat (which is likely how those old family homes originated).

That's the key, and why I'd watch the coast near NJ if it tucks just inland. Could be enough 0-3 km CAPE to get it done, but timing doesn't look great for New England.

They just need deep tropical convection to sustain them, so TC strength isn't a necessary factor. With this event I would personally like to see a better upper jet to really get that moisture transport going.

Dammit, someone noticed. You can't make fog dense (F+) when you have drizzle unless you make both + (e.g. L+). I just noticed it on my last updated and dropped all drizzle. While technically you could have heavy drizzle, I think it sounds stupid.

Nearly gave myself heat stroke today, but I dragged myself around 18 walking. 50 back (teed off 10) and 41 front.