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OceanStWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    We have a solid 3-6" upslope to come too.
  2. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    MWN has wind from 40 degrees and backing. It's not warming up from here.
  3. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    That I can buy.
  4. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    I didn't really hone in on SNE, but I saw some of the 3km precip algorithms had snow mixing back in across CT as the TROWAL rotated through.
  5. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    It's not even upslope yet! Under the TROWAL, dry slot moves overhead and it starts to get convective there.
  6. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    We had that exact view for about an hour at GYX. Just pasted up in the mountains right now.
  7. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    You know I thought I was getting overly aggressive when I cut your QPF to around 0.50" yesterday. May turn out okay.
  8. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Nah, it flips back at some point. The question is do we have deep enough moisture for any appreciable accumulation.
  9. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Crap lift and marginal surface temps are probably doing it. It doesn't appear to be warm air aloft that's the problem. And the snow totals are probably an over-correction on our part. Maybe needed a more uniform 1-2" in there for this morning's stuff.
  10. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Here's a good visualization of the TROWAL Mitch was talking about. Now the TROWAL exists at many levels (it's a trough of warm air aloft after all), sloped on either side, but a good proxy is usually theta-e on the 700 mb surface. You can see the warmer theta-e temps curling cyclonically around the low (warm conveyor should peel off to the east remember). Heavy precip occurs on the west side of this axis, so I overlaid the regional radar to highlight that is in fact occurring.
  11. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    We don't TROWAL often in New England, so enjoy it folks.
  12. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Almost certainly some aspect of mesoscale QPF GW there. I think shave 30% off the top as a starter for sure. The 3km NAM has a fairly well known orographic QPF bias. I know in western states it's 130% of reality on average. Would have to imagine similar around here.
  13. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    CC is washing out fast across SNE and NH right now.
  14. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    It's pretty cool actually that echoes over western Tolland County are moving east and echoes over eastern Tolland County are moving west.
  15. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Mount Tolland upsloping from the SE currently? Almost right under the 850 low.
  16. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Doppler velocity is starting to deform from the classic WAA look, so I think the CCB is starting to work its way through our area now.
  17. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Up in Bridgewater, NH
  18. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Man Gene on north may avoid any real significant dry slot and just keep on keeping on today. There may be a lull in lift, but it's not going to get any warmer aloft in NH than it is right now.
  19. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Nah, I'm parking the car on the pond off the first hole at Spring Meadows and letting nature take its course from there.
  20. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    At the time we didn't think they were going to get much out of this morning's stuff (that's not working out), and then could just hoist an advisory for the upslope after. We didn't really have the area of 6+ amounts to bump anything but maybe northern Coos to a warning. It was definitely a low confidence forecast, but as Ekster has been saying I probably should've just hedged colder than models based on the pattern recognition.
  21. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    We're 31.6, but I think our thermometer runs a little cool.
  22. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Sucks the Euro is coming in too late for the forecasts again.
  23. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Just you replying to yourself all day long.
  24. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    We did at the office. The question now I think is whether it's a permanent flip or if we'll change back to snow as the mid levels cool with the passing of the upper trof.
  25. OceanStWx

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    The lows are in pretty short order going to slip east of our longitude too. It'll be interesting to see where the melting layer can stall. Already looks like it may be eroding in York County.
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