OceanStWx

NHC doesn't have the courage to name it.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

“The lightning did most brightly rend the heavens that night.”

Well before my time, so I don't know. But Canadians have dual-pol as well, so TDSs are possible to observe. I'm pretty sure I've seen a couple outside my forecast area.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get severe elevated hail overnight given those morning soundings to our west. Plenty of support for that.

We'll see. We have yet to really see an uptick in TDS/tornado verification in our area. And our radar is well sited to capture stuff to our northwest. Now if it's some moose fart north of the mountains our radar won't see that lofted debris anyway. We do catch "lost" tornadoes sometimes with satellite passes. Like sometime after 2017 a tornado track appeared in the Pemi Wilderness. No idea when it happened, but it's there.

Still waiting on the real show around 22z though.

They have not. But it is also exceedingly difficult to rate up to EF3 with tree damage alone.

The thing about this event is that even if we blow the surface based opportunity, you could still rip some elevated hailers through with golf balls or greater.

It has mixed down to MWN, so it's starting to get into the near boundary layer. The EML may help keep that off the surface until late though.

*Unintelligible moose noises*

This kind of event has so much potential in New England for main reason that you rotate the entire flow pattern and create something more akin to what happens in the Midwest. Around here you typically have much more stable air to the southeast, the complete opposite of central CONUS severe weather. Northwest flow allows stable air to be in the right top quadrant relative to the storms. Check out the line of cumulus marking the surface based instability. Also the forecast for theta-e later today. That marks the warm front, and storm motion is parallel to this. So this is the exact orientation you need for long tracked supercellular storms.

That kind of behavior gets you on neighborhood watch lists.

Two long tracked supercells that produced swaths of wind damage. Sadly for some, no tornadoes.

One time?

12z HRRR keeping severe weather going in the GYX CWA until 08-09z tomorrow

That was the pregame. After party at GYX later today.

More like Sherbroke

All timer for MLT

There is mixed research on smoke and storms. In some cases the smoke layer can actually hold the cap longer and allow the instability to really build before breaking (think smoke absorbs heat and warms that layer aloft). But that really depends on the height of the smoke layer.

The 1821 outbreak is my Roman Empire.

Our hydrologist just won't put it in the briefings each week if we've had rain but it's not included.

Never underestimate the power of the atmosphere to rain between the data cutoff and when the map is released on Thursdays.