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OceanStWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    That FFW has 4.3 million people in it!
  2. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Just south.
  3. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    First good downburst candidate near MHT. Core 65 dbz to 25 kft, and 50 dbz over 30 kft.
  4. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    1528z near the CON/Bow border.
  5. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    1523z I see a detection for one in Canterbury.
  6. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    I'll take that, as it looked like the worst of it should have been south of you.
  7. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    This storm looks just good enough that I could continue a warning, but just bad enough that a SPS may suffice.
  8. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Apex of that bow is headed right for the coop.
  9. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    I mean with the dews we have right now you can't rule anything out because the LCL is practically on top of Kevin's house at 999 ft. But I would have my eye on wherever the outflow from this line in NH ends up. That boundary should keep flow locally backed relative to the background mixing.
  10. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Definitely some of CAR's area (BGR and CAR), but most of the ASOS/AWOS are still slightly below.
  11. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    DDH dumped 0.83" in an hour, so these things are putting out some torrential rain. MRMS displaying rates of 5"/hr now coming into NH, and that's without sampling the lowest/warmest parts of the cells.
  12. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Well both the HREF and HRRR are showing QPF amounts today on the order of 5+ inches for their max areas. So that is keying on the potential for someone today. Maybe another SW NH area flash flood day.
  13. I assume you mean the lightning and not the explosion? The theory anyway is intense steam updraft rapidly separates out positive charge, and in the stronger ash/steam plumes is able to do so in such a way to create enough of a gradient to cause discharges over a relatively short distance compared to thunderstorms. These would likely be positive "CGs" vs. a typical negative CG of a thunderstorm.
  14. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Slight risk for portions of the region. Hope everyone likes their microbursts wet and sloppy.
  15. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Both the NAM and GFS are hinting at a H7 jet of around 50 knots in the prefrontal trough region (up in NNE) during the afternoon. That could make things a little more interesting than an isolated severe set up. But freezing levels near 14,000 ft and mean flow generally parallel to the front will definitely mean heavy rain for some.
  16. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    My gut feeling is that if you miss the line, it's because you got nocturnal leftovers.
  17. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    CAMs have a pretty solid line moving through the area in the afternoon tomorrow. So at the moment it is looking like a widespread wetting rain, but maybe not widespread 2" stuff.
  18. Oh and happy Bastille Day @ORH_wxman!
  19. They do have Haze. And Alter Ego for summer and winter Kevin.
  20. Nobody lives on the Tarmac. Unless it's in the upper 90s.
  21. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    That is impressive. And hail dents and broken windows has to be at least golf balls, but the closest we have seen reported is just over 1" from a picture on WMUR.
  22. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Any details?
  23. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Your two basic categories are going to meso and non-mesocyclone tornadoes. The former is your traditional supercellular storm that generally produces a tornado from the mid levels down (though certainly uses low level horizontal vorticity to stretch into the vertical). The latter is generally something that starts from the ground up. Convection passes over a boundary of some sort that features low level horizontal vorticity, and it is stretched into the vertical by the updraft. If they sound somewhat similar, you're right. The difference is potential strength. The mesocylonic tornado has both low and mid level rotation and thus can be much stronger.
  24. OceanStWx

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Basically any rotating column of air, in contact with the ground is a tornado.
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