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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Marginal risk and we're taking bets on whether we'll see lightning in the CWA today (I'm still betting yes ).
  2. OceanStWx
    EWR gusting to 55 kt
  3. OceanStWx
    Nice downburst near Raynham.
  4. OceanStWx
    The FV3 core is poor with convection, so they are moving to the MPAS core, but that's going to take some time testing too. It's not strictly a convective model, it's supposed to be short term (60 hr) hi-res guidance to replace the NAM and HRRR at the same time. So it has to handle synoptics well too.
  5. OceanStWx
    Well you're in luck. Of course the RRFS is worse with convection.
  6. OceanStWx
    Oh I would be skeptical. I don't think SPC will ever do it now that we have the added enhanced risk level, they can always just throw a moderate up and that would be a big enough deal.
  7. OceanStWx
    You know what, I'm glad this is not my problem today. This severe event looks like a nightmare. Every cell has a core above the freezing level. All capable of downbursts.
  8. OceanStWx
  9. OceanStWx
    That 1717z scan there's a big KDP core (liquid water) above the freezing level, but at the same time ZDR is pretty low, near zero. That tells me that you've got some water coated hailstones up there. So evaporational cooling and cooling from melting. I think that was the right call pulling the trigger early on that before reflectivity responded.
  10. OceanStWx
    That Berks storm actually is throwing liquid water up to over 20,000 ft. Some good downburst potential there.
  11. OceanStWx
    RIP https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-51_soliciting_comments_sref_termination.pdf We'll always have the significant tornado ingredients and some zonked out snowfall amounts to Montreal.
  12. OceanStWx
    Looks like it even split.
  13. OceanStWx
    Most of our sites are 270 or greater right now, so that trough is what is really wiping out any convergence along the front.
  14. OceanStWx
    She gone. Unless you count sunset.
  15. OceanStWx
    It seems like CAMs are leaning towards an RI to Cape cluster and that may be the only show.
  16. OceanStWx
    I just don't see the surface convergence to pop storms off in a big way around these parts.
  17. OceanStWx
    The crazy thing is nothing really stands out from the last year. If anything their daytime temps are cooler relative to surrounding sites than they were last summer.
  18. OceanStWx
    Heavy, heavy meh. Maybe you can get the moisture to pool enough in SNE for something, but then the shear is only so-so.
  19. OceanStWx
    The dinosaurs are all gone now. Actually maybe Ekster and I are the dinosaurs now.
  20. OceanStWx
    That URL Grinchy fungal foes sounds like what happens when you get one of those sticky 70 degree Christmas Days and you haven't installed yet.
  21. OceanStWx
    I could argue up to 112 mph if @dendrite's coops are well built and get swept away. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/1.html
  22. OceanStWx
    Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway. We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.
  23. OceanStWx
    I mean the RAP forecast FZL for like FIT is near 16,000 ft. So very warm, but just looking at the shape of CAPE, there is enough there in the growth zone. Kind of like what we had Sunday up here. It was a lower FZL, but it was mostly big drops with pennies and dimes mixed in.
  24. OceanStWx
    This is Maple Hollow erasure.
  25. OceanStWx
    It still give a salute when I drive through Sturbridge on 84 after 6/1/11. You can still see the scar in the tree growth on top of that hill to the west of the highway.
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