OceanStWx

CAMs are all over the place. RRFS is gung ho (the MPAS version not the FV3) but others are nil. I have to think something pops before the heat is gone. Rarely does it go out with a whimper.

I picture him wandering through the neighborhood leaving 3 ply toilet paper on all the neighbors' doorsteps.

I have a larger system, so may calculated break even was slightly longer. However, the way I look at it is electricity is not something I can really opt out of. So I'm either paying for electricity or paying for panel financing. I've been able to get that price down around what my monthly electric bill was anyway, so my only real cost is to stay connected to the grid.

It’s only temporary. I’m like the emergency back-up goalie this week.

Not today. Today was travel, tomorrow we go back to our roots and forecast for SNE.

Now it's a party.

My one caution flag I have is that these things tend to follow the warm advection wing, and that's where all the convection is percolating into the CT valley. I still expect the apex to turn more south than southeast.

I watch trends on the MUCAPE or 850 dews. It's been riding the 2000 J/kg or +16C isodrosotherm. That isn't forecast to make a concerted push into SNE.

I do think CAMs are struggling with this. It's a well developed MCS, with MCV probably in there now and guidance is almost certainly decaying it too quickly. But I think the HRRR is on the right track, showing the southwestern end being the focus. That's where all the deeper instability is. SNE is all 0-3 CAPE.

We give the people what they want. Machine learning stuff basically has a chance every day through the 4th weekend.

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

Threat of severe every day I'm working at BOX? Let's see if I can't get Kevin his tree topper.

Finally got a clean pass from Sentinel of the Winni microburst area. You can really see a few areas of concentrated damage, namely Cow Island, around Fox Point, and sporadic to the east until just east of Gov Wentworth Highway.

We sweated that one, but in the end all the damage was parallel to slightly divergent and just too wide a path for a tornado. You're not really likely to pull a half mile wide QLCS tornado around these parts. https://x.com/NWSGray/status/2069904757599134055

They're loaning me to BOX for that week. Time to do some damage.

I don't know any specifics but it seems like an EM tried to issue a non-weather related message (like an AMBER alert or the like) and got it real wrong.

Yeah, the tornado watch day. It's not like I wasn't watching it closely, but it's a real kick in the groin when I look back and see I dropped an image in Slack for the media partners at 4:10 pm saying this was an interesting looking line break and probably about as far north as the instability would support a tornado risk. Yet it was still too broad for me to issue a tornado warning. Remains to be seen if it was a tornado. It just as easily could've been a microburst that expanded out into Tuftonboro. There is a relatively straight line of damage, but as it left Winni the damage was over 2000 ft wide. That's pretty large for a QLCS tornado.

Never trust a lake around here. https://www.winnipesaukee.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408078&postcount=14 Could be a tornado, could be an area of enhanced wind. Trying to dig up drone video from Tuftonboro. This is from last Thursday.

New beer incoming?

Not too shabby. I think there's a lot of that going on along this line.

Trying wash the lawn away?

Based on the radar signature earlier, that tracks.

Any more info?