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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    12km has a nice WAA band at 700 mb nuzzling up to @dendrite, so I'm automatically inclined to believe it.
  2. OceanStWx
    There's definitely a large "AI will solve everything" contingent that has arrived in government, so if you like your forecast with 6 fingers on each hand do I have good news for you!
  3. OceanStWx
  4. OceanStWx
    I don't know what these maps are doing anymore. They are relying primarily on WPC data, but also include snow from today. I think it still uses the local forecast, but I'm not not sure to what extent.
  5. OceanStWx
  6. OceanStWx
    To congratulate @dendrite!
  7. OceanStWx
    Only 96% off if you want to be literal, but there are things that go into the HREF that are part of their super ensemble. For reference, inside 3 days you get the Euro op and 25 ensemble members, the GFS op, GEFS mean, and 10 GEFS members, 10 GEPS members, a SREF mean, and then some combination of the HRRR, NAM, FV3, NMMB, ARW as available.
  8. OceanStWx
    Don't let Kevin know that every max expected amount map he posts from BOX uses WPC.
  9. OceanStWx
    That's a pretty strong ensemble signal for 7 days out. Normally you see a little more spread on timing, but every member is generally within the same 24 hour window.
  10. OceanStWx
    I would say that's pretty much normal for the first two weeks of February to be the snowiest of winter.
  11. OceanStWx
    It's the hope that kills you.
  12. OceanStWx
    Another 2.5" bringing the pack up to 8". Looks like proper winter out there.
  13. OceanStWx
    WAA will get stronger as it approaches, so there is still some radar to fill in.
  14. OceanStWx
    I have no information to back this up, but I don't know if it is something to do with MOS being wound down. Are the bothering to develop/maintain it when the NBM MOS is going to become the new standard.
  15. OceanStWx
    Last night's results are in The PFM is our Point Forecast Matrix that falls directly out of the forecast grids. We run this verification twice a day to capture highs and lows, and typically over 100 absolute bias degrees is not great. Always fun to curb stomp MOS.
  16. OceanStWx
    Gonna depend how it organizes itself, but it should be a fairly uniform event with a fairly narrow range.
  17. OceanStWx
    You could pull this
  18. OceanStWx
    Winter is going great up here.
  19. OceanStWx
    It wouldn't be terrible if the lift was just a bit stronger. Maybe if the departing cold dome is just a little steeper something can organize into a more intense band. I'm kind of liking the purely WAA driven event up here. Everywhere I look I'm getting snow totals between 1.5 and 3 inches.
  20. OceanStWx
    My forecast yesterday: BML -24 HIE -23 LEB -11 LCI -7 CON -10 EEN -10 I'll take that, LEB really the only whiff. Also MWN with a dewpoint of -62 currently.
  21. OceanStWx
    I only care about my backyard. CT will torch. Models are trying to bring you into the low 40s too, and I'm just not sure that happens.
  22. OceanStWx
    High is in a pretty shitty position to lock in cold, BUT... a cold enough air mass can be awfully stubborn to move out.
  23. OceanStWx
    There's a little convergent area there between coastal north winds and more northwesterly inland.
  24. OceanStWx
    I believe they trialed them in the Upper Midwest the last couple of years, but yes it is nationwide this season. It makes sense, we warned people if the wind chill hit -30 but not if the temperature fell to -30. Cold is cold. So this new product is for either wind chill or ambient temps.
  25. OceanStWx
    I believe it was our first. We'll issue them anytime the temperature is expected to feel like -25 or colder, with or without wind.
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