OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I love the GFS ripping 4 inches in one hour for PYM as the band rips through.
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Running it back to 00z last night, the Euro definitely initialized too high with heights in the shortwave diving through the Rockies.
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Ripping after 5 or so. 00z looks like the sweet spot for PVD.
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If you are being charitable about what accumulation is, the GFS is 9 hours at ORH. 90% of it is 5-6 hours.
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We have to keep in mind the regime we're in right now too. The Pacific jet is in retraction right now, which is more prone to unpredictability in the models.
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It’s a different physics package so I wouldn’t expect one to predict the other.
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Like actually QPF or just a low location that you like? Because the 12z run was pretty paltry.
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We know that the ensembles in general are all underdispersive (the real outcome sometimes isn’t within the ensemble envelope). But it is quite something to see no EPS members with a significant QPF right now. Normally you would think a few juicy members would be in the 50.
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It's also physically incorrect. If the coast truly dry slots, there is way too much QPF after about 03z Mon.
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Nice dry slot headed my way.
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"Hey Scott, dinner is ready"
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The fun thing about the 18z NAM is that it would probably bust on the other end. The banding is even north of @dendrite on that run, the watch areas could be too far south.
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Yes and no. It is basically agnostic about the wind. Whether it feels like 30 below or actually is 30 below, cold is cold. The thresholds are dynamic based on climatology though.
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What a distribution from the 12z ensembles. Very clear two camps for PWM.
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Bingo. Caution flags. It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.
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12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.
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50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region).
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Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today.
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Listening to a watch collaboration call right now. Will the WaWa map look like Cancun with the amount of GW or not?
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I started forecasting with the Eta and the AVN, which was the style at the time.
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ECMWF and Eta (the old name for the NAM).
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I'm seeing 20 -ubar/s, so if that is right in the middle of the a saturated DGZ that's a good warning signature.
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GFS DGZ RH/omega is definitely collocated NW CT through @dendrite and then @dryslot
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I'm more than satisfied with the positive snow depth change being 5 to 8 across most of the region. Even 3 to 4 in your hood.
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It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit. So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.
