OceanStWx

Our CON observer just called for the 18z report and it had been so long since she needed to report snow she forgot if it was 1 pm or 2 pm.

If there is anything you want to hang your weenie hat on, it's that sensitivity analysis doesn't really suggest any sort of locked in clarity until 24 to as much as 54 hours from now. The timing is tough because it splits the viewing window, but overall it all rides on the upper low in the Southwest. Given that it is already over land and is being sampled, the uncertainty is driven by its evolution with time. In general it produces more robust QPF with members that lower the heights throughout the western CONUS.

I can't say whether it has been doing it a lot lately, but there is no known bias that consistently shows up with the GFS. The ECMWF readily admits that it too often holds back upper lows in the Southwest US.

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

It's just this but freak riding the chairlift in an endless loop.

A quick spin through DESI is pretty dark. If I squint I could maybe drum up a 10% chance of something notable at BOS, but most members are mood flakes to meh.

The kids watching dad close the blinds in his dark room.

Weird stuff can happen all the time with the ASOSs. Sometimes excess condensation can get stuck on the sensor, other times it can be a bad data card.

Update: Aspirator was cleaned but they discovered a bad part which is on order. It's about to be Hunger Games for spare ASOS parts though with a bunch set to move to the FAA and get outfit with a new package of internal parts.

Sure seems that way. Maybe we've just gotten used to so little snow that it didn't seem out of the ordinary. More than likely somebody hasn't updated the graphic yet.

"Thank you Bryce for expressing your feelings with words and not violent actions."

My kids have reached the age where they are complaining about the lack of sledding.

He's starting to get flashbacks to 2010.

If you look closely at the end of the run you can see Scooter walking off into Cape Cod Bay.

Bigger issue with 1/6 is that we need big changes to score. It's been at least 2 days of a consistent look that is not particularly favorable for New England. While day 5 is still day 5, we are running out of time for a big move.

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Starting to get excited?

He did head there today, but I do not know the status of the cleaning yet. 2 pm and it's still running warm.

I have to go back to 2018-2019 to come up with an above normal season in my backyard. 2022-2023 and 2019-2020 were both near normal (within a storm of making it).

Was it wrong though?

Attn: @dendrite and all other sensor weenies We're dispatching the techs to DAW tomorrow to try and remedy the temp situation. It has definitely been bad enough that it has gotten into the NBM bias correction and there is now a pixel of warmth at the ASOS at all hours. All the sensors still read as functioning normally, but our techs are wondering if the aspirator is getting clogged and not forcing enough air through. So they are hoping a good cleaning will fix it. Thursday should provide a nice well mixed day to compare it to neighboring sites.

This kind of AI output is the kind that makes me feel like my job should be safe for a while. You could more or less copy and paste this every year and be fine.

Not my observation, but I've seen chatter about how the AI ECMWF has been showing more run to run consistency (i.e. no wild swings). Of course the question is whether this is a real confidence builder, or only perceived because of the run to run stability. In theory being able to quickly produce a large ensemble might be able to truly give us the kind of dispersion we need for probabilistic forecasting. BUT the problem with AI is that it needs history to train on, so if it has never happened before the model isn't going to create it like a deterministic might. You aren't wrong about the day 4 or so difference though.

On the NWS side of things, StormData will be finalized shortly, and the Service Assessment takes significant time to complete. I think the Buffalo blizzard took the better part of a year to complete all the interviews and compile information.