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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Meh, if we're going to be precise it's still Gulf of Mexico air if it comes from south of that line. Sad.
  2. OceanStWx
    I'm going on almost two weeks of snow on the ground. Deep, deep winter.
  3. OceanStWx
  4. OceanStWx
    300 km and 191 km The point they were trying to make with the training is that a model can only resolve something about 5 times larger than it's grid spacing (because you need to capture the max and min of the wave, plus the beginning, end, and middle of the wave). So that 160 km "upgraded" MRF/AVN could resolve a feature as large as around 800 km. In case we all wondered by it sucked at CAD.
  5. OceanStWx
    I know @ORH_wxman and I were joking about our early days learning to forecast in Ithaca and the models we were using... But I am transposing my notes from our recent NWS-wide ensemble fluency training and they displayed a graphic showing how models have advanced since the 1960s. Now I knew it was a big deal when the Eta went down below 25 km (roughly the same as the current GEFS), but it sends a shock through me when I see the MRF/AVN sitting there at 160 km.
  6. OceanStWx
    Good thing it's still ORH season.
  7. OceanStWx
    Had 1.7" when I left for work at 7, but the best snow of the day has been falling since then.
  8. OceanStWx
    There was no "we" involved. We have complained about the size of the domain for the local scale. Unless the takeover of CAR has begun...
  9. OceanStWx
    Bend over here it comes again
  10. OceanStWx
    BOHICA
  11. OceanStWx
    Just go back and read a few of those AFDs. Classic stuff. Thank god. Daryl is archiving all of that stuff so that you can grab an AFD from 20 years ago.
  12. OceanStWx
    I can see him now, installing the ice block on the window sill in late April.
  13. OceanStWx
    I want to know what the dewpoint was over Kevin's great great great grandfather's wheat field.
  14. OceanStWx
    The 30 year number was chosen because it is long enough to smooth out short term fluctuation from patterns (ENSO, volcanic eruptions, etc), but also short enough to capture real changes to an area's climate. If you used the entire data set for normal, it's just going to be a trend line up towards warmer. If you use smaller chunks you can catch time periods that may have cooled or been wetter. It also is the WMO standard.
  15. OceanStWx
    I don't know for sure, it could either be equipment (unsheltered for instance) or siting (not 2 m for instance). Also, let's bring back the umlaut in Coos.
  16. OceanStWx
    Your snow pack sublimate flake by flake?
  17. OceanStWx
    I mean the Tarmac torches all the way to KTOL (in the summer) but they did four straight days in the teens that December.
  18. OceanStWx
    When the radiators mount up, I'm not sure I want ASH in my posse, but I do always go lower than guidance.
  19. OceanStWx
    It's sneaky. Routinely 4ish degrees colder than Manch-vegas.
  20. OceanStWx
    With winds gusting over 30 kt, I would say you would need a larger temp difference than this to get sea smoke as tall as the picture shows. 30 degrees is about the minimum I would want to see to have it obscuring visibility with winds like this. But the CC shows the rain/snow line south of the buoy location from the MOB 88D.
  21. OceanStWx
    Speaking of the Gulf of Mexico, it sure looks like it is snowing 45 miles offshore. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012
  22. OceanStWx
    We await further guidance on that. What makes it extra ridiculous is that it is only the continental shelf waters of the US to the seaward boundaries of Mexico and Cuba. So it's like less than half of the Gulf of Mexico would change names, and the rest stays the Gulf of Mexico.
  23. OceanStWx
    SNINCR 2/3 at MSY.
  24. OceanStWx
    The best we can do is a 1 km by 1 km grid. Just ask @alex, pretty sure his forecast grid goes from like 1500 ft to 2700 ft.
  25. OceanStWx
    I was definitely on the southern end of the dry air up by @tamarack. Between the bands @dendrite and @tunafish were in. I can see the weenies on CoCoRaHS though. We have the same liquid but everyone is an inch higher on snow.
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