OceanStWx

I really like the mid levels closing and deepening overhead. 850 mb track is near perfect for a 128 to coastal Maine stripe.

Scooter and his friends hanging at the lake.

That has to be some kind of HR violation.

That is weird. I thought those ranges were hard coded. That looks more like the goalposts than a range of expected totals.

I don't know what this means, but the techs said there was a bad card that was replaced.

We may never have another winter storm warning but...

If you want to be a real weenie you could go 11:1, that's climo.

Max temp and Kuchera are the same. There are two equations, based on what the max temp in the profile is. And then Cobb05 and Cobb11 are just the years the study and the update were published I believe. So in theory 11 should be a bit better performance.

Yes. I'm partial to Cobb myself because it is more dynamic than other SLRs but it's not perfect around here either. It actually showed the 850-700 mb thickness as having the lowest errors in the eastern CONUS.

I know we harp on it all the time, but I just saw a post from AMS that Kuchera (or Max T aloft) has the largest errors of all the SLR. Utah is testing a new random forest SLR that shows promising results, beating all other methods out there. Like the rest it does struggle most with the extreme SLRs (too low).

The good news is that as modeled this isn't really one of those narrow laterally quasi-stationary bands. Those have the jet streak on the poleward side of the low track, with the right entrance region driving lift. This jet streak is modeled along and south of the low track, with the left exit driving lift. It looks more like a weak pivot or hybrid to me. So that should mean at least a decent precip shield to keep the threat alive.

Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point?

So that's a green light for more peach talk?

I think the laterally quasi-stationary bands may be my favorite. On the sliding scale of forecast difficulty they are probably tops. High risk, high reward. I would probably rank them laterally quasi-stationary, pivot (trying to nail that pivot point is the hard part), hybrid, and then laterally translating (too uniform, we need winners and losers).

I want a leaf curl hardy peach. Also eff the critters that eat them.

I don't think you're wrong. Just based on the traffic jam evacuating, I think there were a lot of people who couldn't outrun it. I think the saving grace was that it happened before it was dark.

Forecasting snow hasn't worked so far, so why not try something new?

It's in their grids. Rain, snow, and fog. Now sometimes to simplify the wording the P&C may combine the likelihood of precip for both types (i.e. chance rain and likely snow becomes rain and snow likely). The weird thing I see is BOX has chance PoP but likely snow. That shouldn't happen.

That's a misleading graphic. You have to add a bunch of snow from Dallas to the Carolinas.

I think most people don't have the concept of how fast a fire can move when they get that evacuation order. I think I heard an estimate that Palisades was moving 2-5 football fields per minute at its peak. You aren't really outrunning that, and definitely don't have time to toss a go-bag together. I know I didn't even really have a concept of how large these fires are either. You hear 1,000 acres and it just isn't a scale you deal with often. I was on a 19 acre prescribed burn in Maine last year and it was pretty damn big.

I think in this particular case maintenance wouldn't have made much difference. This type of terrain, vs the forests of northern CA, the fuel is too susceptible to rapid drying for prescribed burns to be effective in stopping fire spread, and 100 mph gusts are going to carry embers a long way. What's going to be bad is if, like Scott said, they find some jack off was chucking matches to see what would happen. It was a really good forecast. But like we've seen with other really good forecasts, sometimes that encourages people to head into the worst of it. High surf? Get swept off the rocks at Thunder Hole. River flooding? Head down to the water to see the "crest", etc.