OceanStWx

In an era when our "cold" months are like -1.0 below normal, February 2015 was -12.8 at BOS.

Honestly not very often. When it starts getting into bias correction, that's when it becomes a problem. Or if we start setting records with data we think is suspect.

Seems like a great way to have @dendrite hijack some spare parts for his backyard.

BOS does not average a daily snowfall of 12" per season, it's something less than 1 per season. But if you accounted for snowfall splitting midnight, it's probably around 1 per season. Never had BOS had more than 2 daily snowfalls of 12" in a season (at that time it was just 60-61 and 77-78, 17-18 has now joined that list). 2015 had 4!

Good news @dendrite, we just ripped the temp sensor out of DAW altogether. The part is on order, but rather than send out bad data we're opting for no data (which may actually speed up the delivery of the part).

It was truly incredible. Every time Kevin cracked open an IPA, BOS got another 18".

I think Sam Lillo reran that pattern and found it was like a 1:1,000,000 chance occurrence for BOS.

I think the ECMWF is showing one possible way forward. You have a good model and you come up with an AI version that can run quickly, and you do large ensembles quickly, many times per day. You can end up with some really good probabilistic guidance that way.

The plan was to run with an entirely new model (RFS), but I think the teams have realized that the FV3 core does not scale well to the resolution that 60 hour run should have. So I think we're trying to come up with a new core that will lead to more successful results.

I remember the final nail in the coffin was when the NAM gave in and forecast 4"+ QPF for PWM. The old EE rule in full effect.

We are! The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

Is this like the spank bank for weather modeling?

A distant cousin giving you the middle finger of snow.

Let's turn it into a NorLun.

Takes AEMATT to a new level.

ASOS is the final say on QPF, but we always use the observers to check the snow reports, just in case a spider fart caused the sensor to throw in a SNBxx group.

No days off for her and @tunafish

Our CON observer just called for the 18z report and it had been so long since she needed to report snow she forgot if it was 1 pm or 2 pm.

If there is anything you want to hang your weenie hat on, it's that sensitivity analysis doesn't really suggest any sort of locked in clarity until 24 to as much as 54 hours from now. The timing is tough because it splits the viewing window, but overall it all rides on the upper low in the Southwest. Given that it is already over land and is being sampled, the uncertainty is driven by its evolution with time. In general it produces more robust QPF with members that lower the heights throughout the western CONUS.

I can't say whether it has been doing it a lot lately, but there is no known bias that consistently shows up with the GFS. The ECMWF readily admits that it too often holds back upper lows in the Southwest US.

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

It's just this but freak riding the chairlift in an endless loop.

A quick spin through DESI is pretty dark. If I squint I could maybe drum up a 10% chance of something notable at BOS, but most members are mood flakes to meh.

The kids watching dad close the blinds in his dark room.