OceanStWx

It gets wild on a day like today too. Which storm do you deep dive on first?

It's a tough spot for radar coverage. You're talking maybe 4-5000 ft elevation of the lowest radar beam, so there's never a guarantee it's reaching the ground the same way it looks on radar.

I would say more over-warned in area than in severity. Usually the warning text is pretty accurate for the max expected hail/wind anywhere in the warning, but it's usually such a localized area.

I can remember sitting at an intersection in Sea Isle City, NJ during a storm 30 years ago and right across the street a bolt hit a condo and blew back the top of the roof. Went from six to midnight.

Western Kansas, utterly breathless 2 months during spring, toaster bath the rest of the year.

It won't be long before I'm building something like this for myself. I'm up to 80 sq ft in beds, and another 100 or so in a corner garden mainly for flowers and fruit trees.

Just using climo tracks a storm at Lee's position has about a 25% chance of hitting land anywhere in the US at any intensity, dropping to about 15% for a hurricane, and 10% for a major. If you want to talk CT specifically, 5% chance of hitting at any intensity. The interesting thing is that the probabilities of a New England landfall of any intensity don't start to increase about 10-15% until a storm is near the coast north of HAT. Also the old adage at BOX was that they don't worry about a tropical system until it's in the Bahamas, and there is a little pocket of 20% north of the Bahamas. I would say a 1 out of 5 chance of a landfall 3-4 days away is a good time to start the briefings.

Hope nobody uninstalled the multi-ply TP from the bathroom.

Mine has pretty much done all its work in the last month. June just hit pause on everything.

10/1 to 9/30 It tries to capture the time period so that the surface water is attributable to the same water year's precipitation (i.e. snowmelt is complete). For our purposes it does mean that the majority of the snowfall season is contained in the water year (except maybe MWN and places like that).

Real good chance I end the water year with more liquid than I get inches of snow this winter (closing in on 60 inches now).

I would have to dig in a little deeper to see if there was any MCV or something like that (didn’t see much evidence of the vort max that early), but 0-1 km shear was 20-25 kt. Significant tornadoes become more likely as you push 20 kt.

Loss of shingles is upper end 100 mph, trees are sketchy damage indicators at best, I’ve never really seen them rated higher than 100 mph unless they’ve been debarked (and then you’ll have better damage indicators around).

Possibly a fourth TDS near Avon, MA. Hope they got to finish their morning coffee at BOX before the warning t-shirt cannon started.

I’d still watch that tip of the comma. Looks interesting still.

Maybe another Valley Falls crossing into Mass. Warm front GW.

Agreed.

Yeah, Johnston is pretty bad from BOX, but this one moved with the storm. I think the giveaway is ZDR. It’s chaotic with turbines but near zero in the TDS.

Nice TDS for Scituate, RI

I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris. But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away. A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS.

Mini spinnies everywhere! But the best looking one is definitely near BED.

Forecast hodographs look great, so it's no wonder the radar is taking that same curved shape.

That little cell between 495 and 128 is definitely spinning. SPC mesoanalysis says we're not capped right now, but the question is do we have enough low level instability to speed up the updraft and stretch it.