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OceanStWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Our hydrologist just won't put it in the briefings each week if we've had rain but it's not included.
  2. OceanStWx
    Never underestimate the power of the atmosphere to rain between the data cutoff and when the map is released on Thursdays.
  3. OceanStWx
    It's a pretty cool visualization tool. More shading means that more ensemble members are showing something anomalous for the time of year. More black lines with higher numbers mean the most extreme ensemble members are quite extreme.
  4. OceanStWx
    It's 20% NAM.
  5. OceanStWx
    I think a good example is to watch the convection in the BGM CWA. It's not moving much. That is what will drift east over the next couple of days.
  6. OceanStWx
    I'm just over here saying that whenever you see most (all?) of guidance spitting out some big numbers, it usually happens somewhere in a roughly CWA-sized area. The difficult part here is that this could be anywhere in the BOX/ALY/OKX CWAs.
  7. OceanStWx
    I've seen enough guidance now though to think that 7+" is a reasonable max somewhere in the area.
  8. OceanStWx
    Never say never, but I think this was good ol' fashioned straight line wind. That was a textbook bowing signature. You had a great signal for a rear inflow jet. People are always surprised when they see real wind damage.
  9. OceanStWx
    It is either I issued originally with 70 mph and updated to 60 mph with a SVS and it never got rid of the original language, or I had also clicked the button for "this storm is producing widespread wind damage..." and it triggered that language. Either way, the extremely dangerous situation is more for the observed nature of severe weather. PDSs are used for watches, emergencies are the tornado/severe thunderstorm related warnings.
  10. OceanStWx
    I bet they took a lightning strike.
  11. OceanStWx
    Also that can is 2 inches wide. We don't care how you report it, as long as we can measure it.
  12. OceanStWx
    Hail threat was observed, I updated it to include up to 2 inch hail possible. We've had golf balls so far, but MRMS was estimated between 2.25 and 2.75 inches.
  13. OceanStWx
    Only 4.5 for Kev.
  14. OceanStWx
    The biggest issue with the change is that it only applies to organized severe, and we get quite a bit of disorganized severe. So microbursts fall outside of the scope of the outlooks.
  15. OceanStWx
    It was probably the goal. But I do think widespread coverage of 45kt gusts probably doesn't deserve a moderate.
  16. OceanStWx
    Face down in Center Harbor.
  17. OceanStWx
    His Davis mysteriously going offline this week.
  18. OceanStWx
    Congrats Dendrite
  19. OceanStWx
    Number of ensemble members pretty close to doubled overnight for the BDL area. I would be more willing to toss if there wasn't a band of warm advection f-gen on all models.
  20. OceanStWx
    Next up JFK.
  21. OceanStWx
    That was the first gust front. 71 mph with the meatball.
  22. OceanStWx
    This complex has already had 3 ASOSs measure severe. That's good for around these parts.
  23. OceanStWx
    About to wipe out EWR.
  24. OceanStWx
    It's definitely a EPS heavy skew, but it's like half of the EPS members so it's not nothing.
  25. OceanStWx
    It doesn't account for all the metal in Quincy shipyard distorting the temp record.
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