OceanStWx

@CT Rain wakes up in the middle of the night thinking about this day.

What a gorgeous stretch it was in ITH for a change.

We make our hay other times of the year, the problem lately has definitely been relying on summer to catch us up to normal precip. That just isn't likely to happen.

Impressive to send the Saco at Fryeburg to flood considering how low streamflow was before this.

I think the thunder thing is just climo. Storms are naturally going to fall apart as they near the colder water. One thing we have seemingly trended towards though is more rain in shorter periods of time. So while yearly precip could be normal or above normal, when we get rain it is too much too fast and it doesn't actually alleviate drought conditions.

It's going to be nothing but bare napes and hairy arms out the window up here if we can just get a stretch of normal temps.

It was brief, but it got sunny here at GYX.

Permanent change. I haven't seen the updated best coverage of the lowest scan maps yet, but I think we're now looking at BOX being the better radar from near PSM to Sunapee. The biggest change is we gain like 2000 feet of viewing near EEN, and ENX is basically no longer necessary to look at.

Had to make a tough call for a necessary 2 day outage. Bring her down for a widespread rain event where BOX could cover the most threatened area or bring her down in June when random thunderstorms could be too far away from other radars. By the way congrats on BOX being at least as good as GYX in the low levels for your area now that they dropped their lowest scan to 0.3 degrees.

HREF mean is like 2-2.25" for parts of our area. Typically we've found that the max HREF QPF may not occur in the right area, but it occurs somewhere in the CWA. That's like 4+, so I believe it.

This is just the pre-Christmas forecast.

They've got as many playoff wins in the last 5 years as Vrabel has illegitimate children.

It is 4/20

We were just hanging out in the neighborhood commenting on how nice it was when I realized we were actually -5 on the high.

I'm generally a fan, but it's going to take some education. The TLDR is that SPC now has a way to highlight low coverage but high potential intensity events. I think about 6/1/11. Back then there was only a slight risk, but you could make an argument that coverage was reasonable for a slight only not enhanced. You can now add CIG zones to highlight significant tornado risk even in a 2% or 5%. That just wasn't possible before without a 10% hatched. There was complaining about the miss in MI on day 1. But there was literally no way in the old outlook system to put a significant tornado risk there without upgrading the entire outlook.

Weather weenies trying to reassure me that 37.9" is actually too big, and PWM's 31.9" is perfect.

Seriously, this was a little more akin to some of our extreme rainfall events lately. PVD took their 24 hour snowfall record and nearly doubled it. Like 2"/hr for 18 hours.

Scrawled across the desk journal of Ekster’s great great great great grandfather: “The snow, mark my words, doth ever arrive sooner than one might reckon, and the sleet likewise.”

I admittedly did not participate in the office run up to the storm, but from conversation I can say our post mortem caution flags should’ve been the dry air eating the northern edge versus the pretty simulated reflectivity and QPF maps presented, and falling for the NBM snow ratio trap. That second one shifted the heavy snow at least a row of counties north.

I'm not usually a pack retention kind of guy, but it's been impressive this season. I've had 6 days since 12/3 with a T or less on the ground. And I've been over 10 inches on the ground since 1/26. Chuck in a normal March snowfall and I'll be at the best snow season since 2018-2019.

Nah, it's under the "Lower Dynamics" section of most models (including the Euro!) but the FGEN is the last variable listed. Temp advection comes first so it's easy to miss. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_700&runtime=2025112912&fh=84

Can't tell whether Cantore had pants on or not because snow was over thy knickers.

Easy to spot the drift measurements in a storm like this up here.

Thank you for your service though, that 0.2" helps to define the edges of our snowfall map.

Part of me kind of misses the days of broad ranges with highlighted zones for "locally higher amounts" The problem these days is that you can try and forecast the band from PVD-GHG on this run. But then the next run it's ORH-BOS, so you increase the snow there. But you don't want to drop it from PVD-GHG just in case that was actually right. So the snow amounts are forever only going up until it's too late to recover from the messenger shuffle.