OceanStWx

This is the correct interpretation. 10% of the time snowfall will be greater than the number shown, or conversely a 90% chance that snowfall will be 29" or less. Ideally, 80% of the time your snowfall should fall between the high number and low number.

We're a unique site. Our inflation building was heated, but not to the safety standards you need when generating hydrogen. You probably could see the mushroom cloud from KLEW.

We don't? News to me. We ran out of helium a couple of weeks ago, but we launching again now. Pretty soon we'll be able to turn the hydrogen generator back on too.

Less of a squall now and more of an inverted trof as the coastal starts to take over. Just going to chuck up the advisories.

Pit2 FTW

Seriously though that is one of the big use cases the NWS is excited about anyway. The ability to run large ensembles quickly and frequently.

Some would argue it's always been useless.

No lies detected.

Best thunderstorms of the year right now?

When you end up well mixed, it also mixes out the big wind maxes aloft. Always seems to settle into that 45-55 mph range on the big westerly events.

44 is a big gust for IWI. That place is a wind pit.

LOL 06z GFS spitting out 19 inches for Rumford. 18 inches in 12 hours.

I'm ready. When I work overnights this time of year and sleep during the day, the closed door and sun beating on the roof can get my bedroom up into the 72-73 degree range. No thanks. I flip those heat pumps over to cooling.

Clearly nobody paid attention to the blizzard warning anyway.

I don't have a good answer for that. That's why I think it's probably more of a grid based issue. Like the software can get really angry when you are trying to isolate individual grid boxes that don't connect in some way.

That's really a forecaster discretion kind of thing. I'm not aware of any policy that states all offices should use "showers" out there, but I know around here we generally try and focus on what will public perception be. Like if we're going to upslope and I have likely PoP, and there are always flakes in the air, the public is going to say it's snowing, not there are snow showers. So I'll change all wx at 55% PoP or greater to stratiform. It's possible the terrain out there is so unwieldly with the grids, that they do showers for ease.

When this horizon becomes this reality

As long as the glass stays full, it is a type of workout lifting a beer to my mouth. I can get on some good runs, but inevitably midnight shifts derail it. Then again shiftwork makes my life always kind of feel that way, starting over every 18 days.

But it's impressive when you consider the siting for his thermometer!

What's the opposite of a CJ for Scooter and Ray?

I look forward to the 40s from now through Memorial Day.

That makes sense. 70 and 80 are still extreme for that time of year, and will still happen fairly infrequently. But 60 is much closer to normal and so with gradual warming you would expect more of those temps to show up. The tails are still the tails, but the meat of the temp distribution moves closer to the 60s.

Seems like maybe the low levels were just a little too dry and perhaps a little too much instability (graupel) to really make these squalls intense.

How did I get roped into this goat rodeo of an event? For starters that map is primarily compiled using CoCoRaHS and Coop reports, which are typically 7am-ish. So there was some settlings that occurred overnight prior to reporting. If you include those "official" obs with the totals closer to 18 inches the map kind of looks like one of Ginxy's dog turds because of weird bullseyes. Nothing nefarious, because for BOX a miss is a miss. They'll take the false alarm for the original warning which was cancelled before verifying, then take the missed event for not upgrading the advisory once it was clear warning amount were going to happen. It seems like they just decided to go down with the ship on this one. There can definitely be too much concern with verification sometimes, but it is also the only way we can really track our performance objectively. And we're also required by Congress to track certain metrics, as that's the only way they understand our performance. Some offices definitely try and sneak some past. You see it far more often with tornadoes, tweaking the start time so that it falls under a warning (even if the radar evidence points towards the warning being late).