OceanStWx

For me it's really that the shortwave is deamplifying as it approaches, and going into the day Saturday the strongest forcing continues east with the WAA and there never is really a big push towards establishing that CCB based on upper support. But I was able to thump 6 to 8 inches in the 6 hours between 06-12z Sat.

Granted it looks like the storm of the season for many, but I also feel like I'm edging out onto the runway with my flares. I feel like guidance is probably too juicy after 12z when forcing starts to taper off and dry air (especially up here) starts to sneak in, but I'm seeing some good 6 hour forecasts popping up with our internal collaboration. I never like to see huge forecast swings based on one set of model runs.

Yeah the shortwave and trof are the features. Not really surprising, but the GEFS/EPS both are saying the same thing - you want a stronger lead wave followed by a weaker wave that kicks out of the western trof.

I can't remember, I think we replaced it. But now that I look back at the data it seems to do some weird stuff in July every year. So there might be a local siting issue. And for those unaware the +/- 2 degree tolerance is because ASOS is just an aviation tool. It's not really meant for precision measurement of temps. If the airlines all of a sudden required temps to be within a half degree, then that would become the new ASOS tolerance level. But since they don't care, we're left with that wide range.

PWM did the same thing. I think we had a record warm summer month, that didn't feature any blazing heat. It was just a steady +2 every day.

At least in the MPV example, it's so far off you know it's likely bad data. We have to jump though quite a few hoops to change ASOS data for the climate sites though. ASOS is king, and we really need hard evidence it's not to get it changed or thrown out. So if the observer sees snow but the ASOS doesn't, the climate is recorded with the ASOS "0". Likewise on temps, if it's "just" 2 degrees we're obligated to keep it.

Yeah, that pretty much covers it. We've had the techs out a few times to check calibration of temp sensors. Usually because it's within the +/- 2 degree threshold nothing ends up getting done.

-47

12z sounding warmed 850s 7 degrees, but 925 stayed the same. Not surprising, but the low level cold took longer to push out.

BOS did hit -10, first double digits below zero since 1957.

PVD down to at least -9, if the stats are correct if they can sneak down to -10 that would be the first time since 1981.

I saw a -59 at Jackman for the lowest non-mountain top wind chill of the event.

Models have 850s warming starting this next hour, 925s by 08z. So on pure CAA, we're probably done. If anyone can manage to decouple before sunrise though, lookout.

Ties February record.

It's the Coast Guard photo of the coyote running across the bay for me.

Yeah all wind chill records are going to be a bit dodgy, but it looks like MWN got down to -108 at one point. Daily Mail over the UK was running stories on the coldest US wind chill, we've gone global!

Don't have info from the AWOS, but the CWSU last hit -11 on 1/7/2018

-50 is actually the all time record (1885). -47 is only what has been digitized. I don't think there's much hope of hitting -50, given that temps aloft start warming from here on out, but impressive nonetheless.

Not sure the front has even crossed you yet. Should be shortly though. There was a wind shift with the snow showers, but the real temp drop didn't start until the second boundary passed.

A little. But mostly I'm saying that in the absence of any other processes going on, just mixing down the forecast temps aloft (which should easily get done) it's still some impressive wind chills.

The 925s are impressive. If we can pull the -30 to -35 temps at that level, we'll mix them down with the CAA. With 925 heights around 725-750 m you can tack on about 7 degrees of warming to get it to the surface. That puts a lot of places in NNE -10 to -20 with winds 25 knots or so. I would say a conservative forecast up here would be a low of -10 and 20 knot winds. That's a wind chill of nearly -37. Last time PWM did -35 or colder was 1981.

I just planted a Redhaven this past spring, so this is the first winter. I think it's well sited. I don't radiate all that well being on a hillside, it's got a windbreak to the northwest and west from the natural vegetation, and it's right next to a slope on the west side that really prevents severe reflection off the snowpack. I flirt with 6A, so I should be fine, but I don't want to disappoint the kids like when the flew off with our first blueberry crop.

Thought that was Maple Hollow at first.

My gut is that Fri night cold is being overplayed (wind chills will still be brutal, talking strictly air temp). CAA mixing should keep things from challenging records. Sat seems to be trending a bit colder as the core of the cold is delayed by a few hours. MEX is now single digits at PWM for a high, which hasn't been done in 5 years. Then Sat night I think has the potential to be the coldest for some places. High hasn't totally left town yet and that inversion is going to allow temps to drop from a pretty low launching pad as is. Might be -20 at HIE/BML before midnight.