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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    There’s still plenty of modeled lift left. There wasn’t much accumulation forecast prior to 18z (1-2” range for your area). The forecast still has 5-7” left, so you’ve really just lost the high end amount at this point.
  2. OceanStWx
    Well everyone in my house has been throwing up all over themselves for the last two days, only fair that some models do too.
  3. OceanStWx
    1.3” here. It’s been mostly light snow here today, visibility has never really taken a nosedive. But the 6 hourly forecasts still have 4-6” and 2-3” for the rest of the event, so we could be more or less on track.
  4. OceanStWx
    Nothing drastic, general look to vorticity appears right across guidance (but that's to be expected at hour 00). But guidance does seem to have initialized too high on heights for the vort max across southern Iowa. Ensembles don't seem to be all that sensitive to that specific feature though. Not sure it is playing that large a role.
  5. OceanStWx
    Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind).
  6. OceanStWx
    This is what happens when you auto-generate images. It's winter precip onset, so it's probably something like when snow becomes 50% PoP. So you nail it that the higher elevations flip first and then it gradually works towards the lower elevations and coast, giving it the blocky look. Now the color table is trash, since it duplicates colors.
  7. OceanStWx
    Any temp criteria was ditched long ago. Wind and vis, nothing more, nothing less.
  8. OceanStWx
    "Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph." Whether it is or it isn't remains to be seen, but I'm not sure what would result from this forecast besides a blizzard.
  9. OceanStWx
  10. OceanStWx
    One of the problems with the WSSI is that there isn't much more going into snow load than temp and wind. So put your temp near 32 and crank the winds and it will spit out extreme. Like there is no factor in there for previous snowfall that may still be on your roof.
  11. OceanStWx
    The maps usually get snowier.
  12. OceanStWx
    It's just a weird look to me when you have essentially the same 250 mb and 500 mb look between the Euro and NAM.
  13. OceanStWx
    Anecdotally, I think one outcome of increasing resolution of modeling is that as we near the ability to resolve convection it plays havoc with other fields. Yes, in a region of intense thunderstorms the surface pressure will be lower, but it will not take over as the dominant center unless the upper levels support it.
  14. OceanStWx
    I would say the NAM at least has a surface low where I would expect it to be based on 500 mb.
  15. OceanStWx
    It's a bit red flaggy for me. You got the low well east, but chasing convection. Now that CAN happen, but it's always a good idea to check whether it makes sense. Upper dynamics will ultimately drive the ship. There is vorticity out there, and you can trace it back to the southern stream, but that looks a little like convective artifact to me. The real intense upper forcing will be closer to the tip of the next vort max to the west.
  16. OceanStWx
    For reference, WPC sends the local WFO the whole distribution of their super ensemble for snowfall. Then the WFO forecasts snowfall, and this value becomes the mode of that WPC distribution (thus shifting the WPC forecast if it needs it). That sets the 90th/10th maps. Is their super ensemble the best? No. Snowfall falls outside the 90/10 range often enough, but that’s more so a limitation of the models going into it.
  17. OceanStWx
    Just be aware that the zones don’t mention accumulation after the third period.
  18. OceanStWx
    Are you talking like literal shit, in Moosup?
  19. OceanStWx
    Modeling is kind of a mess with that too. It's a firehose of vorticity from the Pac north of Hawaii. Euro uses one to pump the PNA up enough to the let the northern stream dig, while the GFS focuses on a wave that's a little too late to do the same. We should be chucking dropsondes from the JFK non stop to HNL.
  20. OceanStWx
    Interesting look to ensemble sensitivity - top variance is surface low strength followed by location. The location is very much tied to the relative strengths of the northern and southern streams. Looking for a coherent feature to track back, you kind of lose it around 24 to 36 hours. So there may still be some time before this is locked.
  21. OceanStWx
    Total snow depth maps over here like Could be a thump outside of 495, but oof 21" at 10:1 in ORH equating out to 6 on the ground.
  22. OceanStWx
    I haven't worried about the 540 line since Will was teaching me how to do keg stands in Ithaca.
  23. OceanStWx
    Sunday Funday at the Wood's.
  24. OceanStWx
    It's a little hard to see, but the pattern in the bottom right is higher pressure off the coast and lower over the Upper Midwest. This is the EPS, but the GEFS suggest the same theme. Higher PNA heights and lower heights downstream of the trof result in lower pressures off the coast (in this example we what the opposite of what is shown in the reds and blues).
  25. OceanStWx
    It appears most sensitive to the two ridges, weakening Southeast ridge and developing PNA ridge.
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