OceanStWx

How did I get roped into this goat rodeo of an event? For starters that map is primarily compiled using CoCoRaHS and Coop reports, which are typically 7am-ish. So there was some settlings that occurred overnight prior to reporting. If you include those "official" obs with the totals closer to 18 inches the map kind of looks like one of Ginxy's dog turds because of weird bullseyes. Nothing nefarious, because for BOX a miss is a miss. They'll take the false alarm for the original warning which was cancelled before verifying, then take the missed event for not upgrading the advisory once it was clear warning amount were going to happen. It seems like they just decided to go down with the ship on this one. There can definitely be too much concern with verification sometimes, but it is also the only way we can really track our performance objectively. And we're also required by Congress to track certain metrics, as that's the only way they understand our performance. Some offices definitely try and sneak some past. You see it far more often with tornadoes, tweaking the start time so that it falls under a warning (even if the radar evidence points towards the warning being late).

Both the NAM and GFS have solutions that don't appear to my eye that they should have as sharp a cut off on snowfall on the cold side of the precip shield as some of the clowns are showing. Probably goes without saying as they typically aren't dynamic in snowfall ratio. Forecast soundings show that the column around the chicken coops is mostly around -10C, serviceable for dendrites (and Dendrite). There are also some steeper lapse rates in the region of lift that could give a little boost. All in all it looks like a higher ratio potential on the north side, that could smooth out the gradient in snow totals.

NAM still trying to give some congrats to Dendrite. Big band, subby, and then central NH?

Let's have some snow cover for the eclipse and watch temps tank.

Smashing F5 on the SPC site at 06z to see the upgrade from general thunder to marginal.

Definitely top 5 worst drive to or from work. I would drive in February 2013 any day of the week vs this crap. A couple points the towns just gave up on treatment and the weight of the car was enough to start sliding off to the side of the convex roads.

I don't know, a Scooter melt sometimes precedes a nice pattern.

I was a tee boy that season. I think Toys-R-Us had a contest and you could run out and grab the tee after the first kick off. I think it was the Browns game I got the honor. It wasn't going to last forever, but I did think Bill would walk away. Even though this was "mutual" I think he got led out the door. I do think the team underestimates what a draw he was. Players whether they liked him or not always viewed him as a lottery ticket to a Super Bowl. With that gone, I don't think people are knocking down the doors to come to Foxboro.

But the tides are also higher. So the forecast is actually very similar to this event's observed levels and potential for even higher.

Still getting damage reports rolling in from the coast, and this is probably the top coastal flood event in my time at GYX. You see the occasional house drop into the ocean down in Mass, but I can't recall that happening up here until today.

Nothing like a kegstand of cherry wheat to jog the snow memories loose.

Live look at Will processing the latest event.

Very similar look to the EFI. Hits all the same spots. This one does look windier on the backside, but no. Nothing I'm more willing to sell than high wind warning from the northwest.

Nah, that's the next one. With the beach defenses blown away from this one, I'm not liking the early forecasts for the weekend.

We’re going to need it. Locking the water table in this high with no storage room in the lakes is definitely elevating the spring flood outlook.

Lost 10” of pack overnight and pulled 3.22” Slushy river running through the backyard drainage.

Never doubted the waters would rip. That 75 mph is a good gust for Conimicut. Must’ve funneled right up the bay. It’s been flashing red light downslope signal for nearly a week. Where’s my DraftKings bet on BTV wind gust > PWM?

Maybe less than that. We're toast at the office now.

Too bad Kevin will be asleep for all of it.

PEO gust to 63 knots. Real man stuff back in CNY.

Well the snow was short lived at home. But the good news is the solar panels shed 16" from the last event.

Don't like that. I do have you down for 6-7, but I need CON to flip otherwise I may need to upgrade.

The HRRR did have 38G65KT for 01z. If I had to pick something to rip and read right now, the HRRR looks fine.

Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

I'm almost certainly going to start as snow at my place, but I have zero doubt I'll flip before my shift is up and I can get home an measure.