OceanStWx

I think notably, this isn't a case of EPS vs GEFS with one inland and the other staying offshore. This is similar means across all ensemble suites, but individual members are either inland or stay offshore. So I feel like that gives me greater confidence that this is two possible tracks based on pattern rather than pick the model of the day kind of deal.

Based on 00z suite, it's more like the mean of all the ensembles is not the best forecast, that more likely we'll see something run through SNE or stay outside 40/70.

The combo of CMC, EPS, GEFS is a nice mean low position. Digging deeper clustering shows a pretty good split. We're not dancing around the same location, but there are either inland runners or outside the benchmark. Like a 63/37 split at the moment. Runners are popping up due to either an overpowering trof, or a pumped up northwest Atlantic ridge. The sliders are just a more progressive trof. Shouldn't really surprise anyone at this range, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some moves north.

Pulled 10.6" at 9.5:1 for the event, 18" on the ground. We're pushing high 20s for depth across much of the area (GYX 25"), I saw a 42" in the Ossipees.

Could say that about most winters. 700 mb goodies always deliver. Total snow globe right now.

Well 6 hours of that has already fallen. Maybe Pit2 can bag another 2-3 as this final band drops southeast.

I like the cloud tops cooling over Maine, but the end is in sight for that back across central NH. After 18z I don't expect much additional accumulation.

Well you have the upper low moving through there now, but ALB also has unique local effects like Mohawk Valley convergence. You have north winds at ALB, east winds off the Taconics, and west winds down the Mohawk Valley. That can enhanced their snowfall on the trailing end of systems like this.

RAP handling it pretty well. Just kind of melts the lift east over the next few hours. Best rates should be just on the cold side of this (since lift it probably maxed above this level).

I didn't see a lot of congrats Dendrite being tossed around for the CCB, it was always the eastern areas most likely to bag the goods. It's probably even a little farther south than I thought. I was expecting Kittery, but it's looking closer to the Merrimack.

NSFW at work right now. Visibility is probably around 800 feet, pretty close to 1/8 mile +SN.

I think we've got one more window, like 15-17z. Models are hanging back that f-gen now, and it should sweep across southern NH.

There are calculators online too. But if you want a general rule of thumb, add two to the dew for every degree you drop the temp.

As an addendum, we usually assume that max lift occurs at 700 mb, which is why we suggest we want the DGZ around that level. Of course max lift can occur at many levels, so as long as it bisects the DGZ it can snow heavily. There is just a lot more that can happen to a flake the longer it falls (evaporation, fracturing, riming, etc).

Wet bulb is 34-35 from BOS to BDL, so if it is +SN I don't worry about accumulation. If it stays 1SM, that's when it could be trouble.

Either way we nuke our snowpack?

I think it's really bitten us this last week. We've really struggled to get the snowfall forecast in the right ballpark around warning criteria.

A little more CCB now, I think the trof is more Currier and Ives mood setting than anything else. If you look at the 250 winds, the trailing jet streak it's a little less progressive today than it was yesterday or the day before, so the CCB gets going sooner. I would really like to see an event with a DGZ below 500 mb though.

Let's call that an upper bound solution.

Lacking a Bufkit point for DAW, I think MHT it a good proxy for you. Rips between 06-12z (probably close to 1"/hr), then lulls followed by lighter inverted trof snow the rest of the day.

At least it will be roaring easterlies above the treetops instead of roaring southeasterlies.

If it's ripping heavy snow it will accumulate. But we did knock down ratios to below 10:1 in that area to account for some loss in depth to warm boundary layer.

Pope Pummeler?

They do close, but late in the game. A "classic" event you have the WAA band move through and then the mid levels close somewhere around MTP and continue northeast and the storm does a bit of a pause and pivot with the CCB. This storm is moving almost due east, so we don't really get a pivot because the WAA doesn't keep moving through but like Will said it does allow eastern New England more time to get the CCB involved. But because the mid levels are always moving away from the coast, any delay in deepening and the CCB is toast.