OceanStWx

He's starting to get flashbacks to 2010.

If you look closely at the end of the run you can see Scooter walking off into Cape Cod Bay.

Bigger issue with 1/6 is that we need big changes to score. It's been at least 2 days of a consistent look that is not particularly favorable for New England. While day 5 is still day 5, we are running out of time for a big move.

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Starting to get excited?

He did head there today, but I do not know the status of the cleaning yet. 2 pm and it's still running warm.

I have to go back to 2018-2019 to come up with an above normal season in my backyard. 2022-2023 and 2019-2020 were both near normal (within a storm of making it).

Was it wrong though?

Attn: @dendrite and all other sensor weenies We're dispatching the techs to DAW tomorrow to try and remedy the temp situation. It has definitely been bad enough that it has gotten into the NBM bias correction and there is now a pixel of warmth at the ASOS at all hours. All the sensors still read as functioning normally, but our techs are wondering if the aspirator is getting clogged and not forcing enough air through. So they are hoping a good cleaning will fix it. Thursday should provide a nice well mixed day to compare it to neighboring sites.

This kind of AI output is the kind that makes me feel like my job should be safe for a while. You could more or less copy and paste this every year and be fine.

Not my observation, but I've seen chatter about how the AI ECMWF has been showing more run to run consistency (i.e. no wild swings). Of course the question is whether this is a real confidence builder, or only perceived because of the run to run stability. In theory being able to quickly produce a large ensemble might be able to truly give us the kind of dispersion we need for probabilistic forecasting. BUT the problem with AI is that it needs history to train on, so if it has never happened before the model isn't going to create it like a deterministic might. You aren't wrong about the day 4 or so difference though.

On the NWS side of things, StormData will be finalized shortly, and the Service Assessment takes significant time to complete. I think the Buffalo blizzard took the better part of a year to complete all the interviews and compile information.

South of the Pike can merge with the Mid Atlantic forum. Kevin can switch seasonally depending on which ASOS he is referencing.

Difax charts sticking together.

Will will remember synoptic class and Colucci saying that high pressure can be sexy too.

WPC tries to keep a running tally here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

Me and you learning how to forecast with the NGM.

The March 1914 shows up on a lot of monthly low pressure records for the area too. Of course to get monthly low pressure records you usually need the storm to track over your backyard, which tends to be bad for snow. So a lot of our lowest pressure are written on Cleveland's Dead Sea Scrolls.

Of course you do. For half of Nova Scotia, that's the record low January pressure.

Pretty cool to see that little oval of September 1938 within a sea of cool season bombs.

Those 940s are all tropical too. January 2018 is probably the most prominent in my mind (949 I believe), but I don't have a steel trap for dates and events like Will. My brain is more of a wet paper bag these days.

Likely what happened here is that dense fog (+FG) was added to the grids, which carries a 1/4 mile visibility. Then drizzle was added and intensity was based off visibility (which was 1/4 mile because of the fog) so you get +DZ. But in reality I'm not sure I've ever seen a forecaster explicitly forecast DZ or +DZ, it's almost always -DZ.

Deep winter.