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OceanStWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    Actually so much more of the job now is explaining to decision makers what the realistic goal posts are for an event like this. So you have to be willing to put it out there when the alarm bells are ringing. The secret is that the EM community understands what it means when you offer a 90th percentile forecast.
  2. OceanStWx
    Biggest bust is definitely near the MA/NH border.
  3. OceanStWx
    Don't worry, your QPF deficit will pop up in a couple months.
  4. OceanStWx
    Sprinkled on me out at the firepit on Sunday night, so I snuck a T in there.
  5. OceanStWx
    Central Park ripped off 1.96" in an hour. That's going to bring some Phil every time.
  6. OceanStWx
    That's the thing, if you can do kind of a Norlun-like setup with tropical rain you can really run up the totals.
  7. OceanStWx
  8. OceanStWx
    I think that's fair to say.
  9. OceanStWx
    Hair east, but similar enough.
  10. OceanStWx
    At this point I'm not sure Schill gets the benefit of doubt. Kind of like the Euro during the winter.
  11. OceanStWx
    Well 12z HREF really didn't back down, and in fact ramped up the threat I would say. Now seeing areas of 7-10 inches in 6 hours for the max product.
  12. OceanStWx
    Sorry, an 8 on the black lines not the shading. The black lines are an indication of what the highest ensemble members are showing. The shading shows roughly how many members are forecasting something bigger than the model climate. So big shading numbers make a soaker more likely, and the black lines as the numbers get bigger make a truly extreme event more likely.
  13. OceanStWx
    EPS EFI is pretty juiced. Good news is that the flooding in Greece was like an 8 on this index, so it is unlikely to be that bad. GEFS has a pretty good signal for >90th percentile mean QPF as well.
  14. OceanStWx
    As long as Dendrite gets the blame for my bad calls too.
  15. OceanStWx
    Closed low, good forcing, strong east component to mid level winds, lots of moisture.
  16. OceanStWx
    Pretty impressive to see a HREF mean of 3-4 inches in 24 hours. The max totals usually do a pretty good job of picking out the max reported amount (duh), but even falling a few inches short would be
  17. OceanStWx
  18. OceanStWx
    We average about 6 storm warnings (48 kt) per year, so I would say we have quite a few more chances to top that.
  19. OceanStWx
    Early prep for winter backlash disappointment.
  20. OceanStWx
    Kilometers per hour?
  21. OceanStWx
    You really could've punted when it was 1000 miles east of Puerto Rico. From that point forward the probabilities of a New England landfall based on storm position haven't really changed. To get probabilities much above 1 in 4, you really have to scrape HAT.
  22. OceanStWx
  23. OceanStWx
    Wouldn't shock me. It's kind of a waste of computer resources at this point.
  24. OceanStWx
    I think much of the effort is pouring in ensembles. Improving those and creating new tools for visualization. Increasingly I think deterministic models are becoming just another ensemble member which can ping around between the goal posts. NCEP is moving towards a paradigm with a 60 hour hi-res model and beyond that moving more towards the ensemble space.
  25. OceanStWx
    TC, Bob made landfall as a tropical storm, but hurricane is Gerda.
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