OceanStWx

Unfortunately our primary driver of temps was not advection but latent cooling. Always a risky proposition. Forcing got weaker, precip intensity is lower, less metling/cooling at the surface.

That's the real limiting factor here. It's moving so fast that you only have a few hours to accumulate. Hard to pull off much more than a sneaky advisory when that happens.

It's definitely possible. These kinds of lateral quasi-stationary bands can surprise just because the forcing will be narrow but persistent.

It's a good example of the absolutely insane way the computer tries to put our forecast to text (remember I can't control what the P&C says beyond drawing the forecast). You're forecast is roughly 1.4 inches, so it reads that as 1-3 inches even though 3 inches is unlikely. It also says rain and snow before 3 am, when the predominate weather during that period is slight chance of rain and definite snow. Sure rain and snow is technically correct, but one of those precip types is more likely than the other.

I've embraced it so hard that we're doing a week and a half in Florida this February. Only need to survive ~ 5 weeks of winter now.

We'll forever be trying to kick the 2015 football.

I'll gladly pull the snow stake out with the Christmas lights in a couple weeks.

I mean it may be a sad look to a once promising pattern, but we do this same song and dance every season. We've "wasted" December, when a place like ORH only averages about 10" through this date and has 7.5" on the season. The season could still end up just fine.

Can't have too much life left. NBM MOS will replace it and the GFS MOS sooner rather than later.

There's something to be said for the ECMWF style of modeling. They have one, very good model and then they just adjust it from there to suit their needs. You get 4x daily deterministic, you get an ensemble, you get an extended run. They aren't wasting resources running a GFS, NAM, nested NAM, HRRR, SREF, CFS, etc. Now the trick is creating a very good model to start with.

Most of the ensemble members are still pretty meh, but the snowiest ones are definitely the more amplified patterns.

That was my thought when the power went out last night. I had just texted the NAM LLJ to Scooter and Ryan and the neighborhood went total blackout.

Let's go Wiz

I could start you at 50 mph. I mean at the very least you've got pressure changing by about 3 mb per hour. That'll get the air moving.

There are a few notable things from articles like this lately. I highlighted one of them. These companies are going to focus on things they can monetize. Kevin doesn't care about wind power production, he just wants to know if his oaks are going to end up in his living room. Otherwise they are more or less describing AI pattern recognition. They need like 40 years of reanalysis to train their model, so it's not as if they just invented a new and better model.

For those interested, here is what goes into the NBM expected snowfall. If you look at the probabilistic NBM guidance, it takes each of these 100 members and puts them in order. The lowest snow amount is the 1st percentile, the highest is the 99th, and so on.

Bryce picking Christmas gifts out of the trees in the front yard?

Beer?

Good news for the Maine Midcoast moose population. Hi-res stuff is hinting at a little instability injection as this thing starts wrapping up around midnight tomorrow night. Theta-e lapse rates are pretty close to negative for several hours, and the DGZ gets to be like 200 mb deep. That's a great sign for high snowfall rates. If the synoptic lift was a little stronger I would be thinking some extreme snow rates would be possible.

I know the day before Bufkit had GYX around 1500 ft of surface warmth but Rumford was more like 900. That's all the difference in the world.

Not really sure it was an aloft thing. The warm layer near the ground was just a little too close to 1500 ft. I like to see it closer to 1000 ft to overcome low level warm air with rates and latent cooling.

Why are you reposting your wedding vows here?