STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Well when Stowe gets 100” and Boston 1-2” I’d call that one heck of a gradient pattern. With gradient mostly set up from S VT to C NH to foothills/ interior CP of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: ? no it doesn't Ahh you took the bait. He knows it's gone too, but wanted some input from others to see what they thought, and if there's any hope for it. Think we just have to sit tight for a while and see what the New year brings in for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well when Stowe gets 100” and Boston 1-2” I’d call that one heck of a gradient pattern. With gradient mostly set up from S VT to C NH to foothills/ interior CP of Maine True... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack. Knock it down To a inch Water equivalent on ground, not inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Knock it down To a inch Water equivalent on ground, not inch of snow I'm aware. But an inch from three is quite a bit of snow liquid loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 700mb RH will save us Heck if we can't live at 500mb, That would be my 2nd choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm aware. But an inch from three is quite a bit of snow liquid loss. I kno you are aware lol, I imagine many on the board reading that fast and hearing inch left and ya . ”3 to 1” is a disaster . Is the pack ripe or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I kno you are aware lol, I imagine many on the board reading that fast and hearing inch left and ya . ”3 to 1” is a disaster . Is the pack ripe or something Probably not yet, but 1-2 inches of rain and warm temps will get it there quickly. I'm not entirely sure how the model determines snowmelt (i.e. how it ripens the pack) so it could be too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 All Slopes shut for the holidays . Awful timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All Slopes shut for the holidays . Awful timing This season has always had grinch written all over it....sucks. At least I have no snowpack to wipe out lol The grinch has no toys to swipe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm aware. But an inch from three is quite a bit of snow liquid loss. And that will be a very dense 1" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Winter was coming back on the 20th, then the 25th....now it’s early Jan? You keep rushing it, be patient. You’ll get 4 weeks of it, mostly in Feb. No wire to wire, just a bunch of strings dangling cold carrots in your sleep. Let’s look for one, high-sun-angle slopfest in mid March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This season has always had grinch written all over it....sucks. At least I have no snowpack to wipe out lol The grinch has no toys to swipe... Yeah .. strangely enough this one doesn’t bother me at all. Nothing to protect . Just hope the 24th system can whiten things up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I kno you are aware lol, I imagine many on the board reading that fast and hearing inch left and ya . ”3 to 1” is a disaster . Is the pack ripe or something 06z GFS dumps about 2.3" RA at Augusta late week, with temps creeping over 50. That might do it, a high-end Grinch. (Of course, GFS always seems to majorly dump snowstorm qpf about 12-24 hours before first flakes. Maybe the same for a cutter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I was in BUF this past weekend and watched a weak snowpack vaporize there. But at least it looked decent the first day. Looks like not much has changed in a few days. Still looking ugly for dec 21-22...our last ditch effort for Xmas eve is still possible but it looks pretty paltry right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah .. strangely enough this one doesn’t bother me at all. Nothing to protect . Just hope the 24th system can whiten things up Doubt it. I have always felt that it would take until the last week of the season in order to even entertain the notion of a significant snow event. Its probably more likely that we wait until after the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 SSW Event Earthlight "This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N ." Isotherm "This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SSW Event Earthlight "This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N ." Isotherm "This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter" That is awesome....January may very well be colder than I had anticipated because I didn't expect a SSW. HM was saying that the last time that he saw this profound a signal was January 2004 (Steve may nail the brutal cold)....now imagine overlaid onto a weak modoki canvas.....not saying that it will happen again, but I agree with Tip that this season should be the February 2015....not that season If that makes sense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is awesome....January will probably be colder than I had anticipated because I didn't expect a SSW. HM was saying that the last time that he saw this profound a signal was January 2004 (Steve may nail the brutal cold)....now imagine that under a weak modoki canvas.....not saying that it will happen again, but I agree with Tip that this season should be the February 2015....that that season If that makes sense? WOW Ray talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: WOW Ray talking dirty Put your trousers back on and get it together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Put your trousers back on and get it together My trousers have been off since my honey moon....I started looking at ENSO stuff after the wife has passed out in Hawaii, and just never got dressed. Probably will be ballz to the breeze til April 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put your trousers back on and get it together Major wood after seeing their posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Major wood after seeing their posts LOL. When did they post those? Great news, the often desired - rarely realized SSW may finally be here!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My trousers have been off since my honey moon....I started looking at ENSO stuff after the wife has passed out in Hawaii, and just never got dressed. Probably will be ballz to the breeze til April No trousers, Hawaii, ocean-atmosphere coupling... You're hitting all the erogenous zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just to be clear, I don't expect 100" in 30 days....all I mean is that this period looks more favorable to me than 2015. But its akin to scoring 15 runs against Chris Sale, then expecting 20 the next game because Porcello is pitching....you reach a point where the sheer magnitude of the anomaly is prohibitive of commensurate expectation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack. Interesting. No idea how much water is in my pack, but I've seen it happen before. That said, I just had a showing for a wedding and we walked around the yard and it's incredibly sturdy. You can stand on top of a foot of snow with zero give, other than the 3" of fluffy stuff on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: NAEFS guidance has quite a few members that wipe out much of the pack at Moretown, VT. On average it's only about an inch liquid lost, but quite a few knock it down below an inch left on the ground. Even the picnic tables are under attack. Where do you get these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, alex said: Interesting. No idea how much water is in my pack, but I've seen it happen before. That said, I just had a showing for a wedding and we walked around the yard and it's incredibly sturdy. You can stand on top of a foot of snow with zero give, other than the 3" of fluffy stuff on top NOHRSC has you a hair over 4" liquid in that pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, alex said: Where do you get these? https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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