December Discussion II

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I still feel my neighborhood got 40-48”, but who really knows...winds made legit measurements pretty much impossible

You very well could have gotten at least 40. I wasn’t around unfortunately, but from what I saw and heard it seemed like a solid 3’ was achieved. @Hambone who posts here was on the. Brockton/West Bridgewater line has some pretty epic stories.

[Tom12309]

I was completely spoiled by being a kid in Vermont for the blizzard of 68 (69?  I was a kid, it was a really long time ago).  The snow drift in front of the kitchen window was too high to see out the window, and the hill sloped down away from the house there.  We measured one drift in the field behind the house at 17 feet.  We had one of those kid's swing sets on the lawn, you could just see the top bar of it.  We didn't have school for three days, and back then they didn't call school off for anything.  It took a loader operator all day to clear the mile of road from the top of the hill to the paved road in the valley.  We made an igloo by cutting wind packed blocks and we made extensive tunnels in the drifts.  I remember at the height of the winds seeing a squirrel in the bird feeder hanging on for dear life.  That was funny.   I thought that was how winters were going to be always.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Last update on this exiting this thread's life ..but, it appears the SSW is going to be midland in anomaly when comparing to other years having this phenomenon in the data set.

It does also appear destined to propagation behavior, ... a key factorization in driving AO (theoretical/correlative) with gradual downward momentum mixing of easterly wind anomalies concomitant with the warm mass intrusion mixing lower ...gutting the PV. 

Prior to the typical temporal lag requirement, the present AO is already neutralizing... which I find intriguing. In fact, many CPC members indicating the index is going negative entering week 2. This is prior to the temporal lag. Mm. Perhaps right on top of it though, too.

Beyond...not much has changed ...other than bringing some coherence to what this SSW this is likely to be.  The exertion with the wind flux would tend weaken the PV by ~ 7 to 10 days from now.... The GEFs are predicting the "split" in the tropopausal sigmas beginning in 5 days at onset...

One critical factor at a more super-synoptic scale is whether the MJO can run out into western hemisphere.  Phase 7/8/1/2 up underneath, as I think some extended guidance may indicate that taking place... would be a rather robust... hemi-scaled positive/constructive wave interference look if that happens.  That would be cool, both euphemistically and literally.  I mentioned this the other day; I still see that as in play while we determin a whole-scale relationship as yet to be ironed out. 

Otherwise, if the midland strike of the SSW parlays to a more modest -AO...even that much would be potentially impressive if these mid and lower latitudes sync up like those MJO/PNA progs suggest they might.  I haven't seen the WPO/NPO numbers as of late... I'd really like to - ...if the WPO is starting to descend into week 2 that gets real dicey for warm enthusiasts residing amid the typical continental conveyor regions to put it diplomatically...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Last update on this exiting this thread's life ..but, it appears the SSW is going to be midland in anomaly when comparing to other years having this phenomenon in the data set.

It does also appear destined to propagation behavior, ... a key factorization in driving AO (theoretical/correlative) with gradual downward momentum mixing of easterly wind anomalies concomitant with the warm mass intrusion mixing lower ...gutting the PV. 

Prior to the typical temporal lag requirement, the present AO is already neutralizing... which I find intriguing. In fact, many CPC members indicating the index is going negative entering week 2. This is prior to the temporal lag. Mm. Perhaps right on top of it though, too.

Beyond...not much has changed ...other than bringing some coherence to what this SSW this is likely to be.  The exertion with the wind flux would tend weaken the PV by ~ 7 to 10 days from now.... The GEFs are predicting the "split" in the tropopausal sigmas beginning in 5 days at onset...

One critical factor at a more super-synoptic scale is whether the MJO can run out into western hemisphere.  Phase 7/8/1/2 up underneath, as I think some extended guidance may indicate that taking place... would be a rather robust... hemi-scaled positive/constructive wave interference look if that happens.  That would be cool, both euphemistically and literally.  I mentioned this the other day; I still see that as in play while we determin a whole-scale relationship as yet to be ironed out. 

Otherwise, if the midland strike of the SSW parlays to a more modest -AO...even that much would be potentially impressive if these mid and lower latitudes sync up like those MJO/PNA progs suggest they might.  I haven't seen the WPO/NPO numbers as of late... I'd really like to - ...if the WPO is starting to descend into week 2 that gets real dicey for warm enthusiasts residing amid the typical continental conveyor regions to put it diplomatically...

We've talked about this before, but I'd prefer a midling SSW....no need for -3SD AO/NAO....give me volatility averaged moderately negative. Ideal for us at this latitude.

[das]

On 12/29/2018 at 1:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure which part of what I said suprised you?

I didn't say he was wrong..but rather merely implied that it hasn't profoundly altered our expectations regarding ENSO as of yet.

Sorry, just getting back online.  It was only the "i'm not ready to entertain the thought" part since you've always struck me as having a good bead on the underlying physics of how the atmosphere works.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, das said:

Sorry, just getting back online.  It was only the "i'm not ready to entertain the thought" part since you've always struck me as having a good bead on the underlying physics of how the atmosphere works.

 

Oh, I see what you mean...what I meant was that I'm not ready to entertain the notion of adjusting my expectations for weak modoki based on that..however it is absolutely valid. That was my fault. I was in a rush and communicated that poorly.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Blizzard of 2005 and Blizzard Juno was not as intense wind wise as the 78 storm, nor as long duration, but what made the storms so remarkable was that they were not done intensifying when they reached the latitude of Cape Cod, Chatham.  The storms both had tremendous ocean effect contributions.  Clippers are also tremendous snow producers for Cape Cod aka miller B snowstorms, because they favor Cape Cod when they produce heavy snow bands.  They intensify more as they move away from the region so Cape Cod gets clipper by the developing CCBs.  Which is what the 00z NAM tried to do with our storm for Thursday night/Friday morning of this week.

[LibertyBell]

On 12/29/2018 at 12:04 PM, das said:

Having read your stuff (from afar from the MId-Atlantic forum) over the years, I am surprised by this comment. @Typhoon Tip is simply expressing a well-understood inverse notion in physics; the Law of Constants. It basically states the tenants of physical constant, which is any set of fundamental invariant quantities observed in nature that are the foundation for the basic theoretical equations of physics. On which meteorology is based.  Tip rightly assesses that those observed qualities that make up the equations that represent ENSO, MJO, etc... are changing and the slope of that change is accelerating.  They are the furthest thing from invariant these days. 

This is fascinating and I'd love to read some research on this!  Perhaps accompanied by some graphs, as an easier way to picture it- intuitively it seems right, because the analogs we use have to be adjusted for the current climate.