ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not with that look @H5, Looked more of a SWFE but that's out in lal la land anyways Agreed...that looked like a SWFE where the WAA runs into a bit of brick wall in NE....but it's an OP run at 240 hours...useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 For all the 94-95 horror I’m pretty sure that even if we duplicated that late flip we would probably see alot more snow than we did in 95. It was cold pretty much til 4/15 that year after we flipped around 1/25. If just was a different ERA storm wise than we’ve been in the last 10-15 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if places saw triple the amount of snow if we repeated that exact setup. It just wants to snow these days when the cold air is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, codfishsnowman said: where are the low 50s?? rotting at 36/37f here Just off the deck....ORH up to 49F up on the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Highly doubt it, Pacific jet is raging. Looks like a full blown Nina. This is starting to remind me of the bad winters where the models kept pushing back the pattern. You worry every winter You did the same last winter and lool what happened. Everything is going as planned 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 EPS ejects the energy out instead of burrying it like the op for the 4th. Nice signal this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: EPS ejects the energy out instead of burrying it like the op for the 4th. Nice signal this far out Meh, still kind of ugly, but yeah, it has some cold air around for that threat. Not a fan of positively tilted troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Meh, still kind of ugly, but yeah, it has some cold air around for that threat. Not a fan of positively tilted troughs. Agree Suppression is an issue here if the energy doesn't cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 49.5F, 0.43". What a cold and snowy week so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Highly doubt it, Pacific jet is raging. Looks like a full blown Nina. This is starting to remind me of the bad winters where the models kept pushing back the pattern. You are starting to remind me of the bad posters that just keeps pushing back against logic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 January is probably going to average a positive monthly departure in the end...reverse sequence from December, biased colder later. The pattern won't be great until the final third of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 53 degrees and a half inch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 45 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: where are the low 50s?? rotting at 36/37f here It's 55F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January is probably going to average a positive monthly departure in the end...reverse sequence from December, biased colder later. The pattern woun't be great until final third of month. You, not the pattern, better deliver or next gtg is a herd of weenies standing on your front yard like: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January is probably going to average a positive monthly departure in the end...reverse sequence from December, biased colder later. The pattern won't be great until the final third of the month. People will freak out over this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: January is probably going to average a positive monthly departure in the end...reverse sequence from December, biased colder later. The pattern won't be great until the final third of the month. Pushing things back I see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pushing things back I see What?? I've said the same, exact thing since November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Isotherm that does make some sense. I’m sure some other things are involved too. It’s been a standing wave more or less with easterlies too prior to more recent westerlies. We are still getting a strong PAC jet. We’ll need that wave to finally move east. I’m sure it will over the next two weeks. I agree, Scott. Not saying it's the only variable, though I do think it's a significant one. There's quite a bit of contamination currently re: the RMM plots due to rossby / kelvin wave interference. The correct initialization of the MJO as of today is phase 6, in my view, and will be propagating through 7 and 8 by the 4th +/- a couple days. 52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to pin anyone's ears back in this discussion... is that published. I'm just curious, how/what is/are that physically connective tissues - if you will. Obviously, ...goes without notice that the arctic domain is opposite the equitorial band. That tends to stretch the direct model's credibility some but ... who am I to say. Perhaps there's some larger integral that concurrently favors both ... so they are not causally linked, per se, but are given 'boosts' at the same time. ...heh, I like that... I mean, on the surface. ...certainly seems plausible do to the eerily coincident timing of this sudden onset warm intrusion in the usual SSW-candidate sigma levels over the arctic domain and the modeled acceleration of the MJO... Okay... But... SSW years (looking back over the 40 year's worth) tend to fire off beginning now anyway - do they all have concomitant MJOs' going nuts? I'm not sure it wasn't just a coincidence. It'd be cool if it was more directly instructive though... Know what it almost reminds me of... well, does, otherwise I wouldn't of thunk it. But, if you take a conditionally chilled medium of water ...say at 37 F (2.5 C) and suspend it in ice for a few moments...then, just slightly ting the side of the glass beaker, the suspended liquid medium flashes to ice. It's really pretty cool looking. Going the other direction ... different physics mind you, but, take a boiling cup of water... run out into field five miles outside Tower Minnesota (...but ya gotta be naked for this to work) while it's -40 F ... and throw said boiling contents into the air... Half instantly freezes and half falls shimmering to the ground while the other looks like the anvil on a thunderhead kiting away as a semi-translucent airborne snowball. The impetus there is neither... It's to draw examples pertaining to capped conditional saturation forces being suddenly set into restorative balancing, in general ... Here's a hypothesis: Ozone residence in the polar stratospheric vortex may be unable to absorb heat due to being at a delicate equilibrium with a PV=NRT ...But some kind of gravity wave... perhaps produced by the MJO its self ... very subtle propagates through the medium is that "ting" that allows the cascade uptake of thermal energy ... the PV flashes warm. I dunno...just spit ballin' There are plenty of papers on strat-trop coupling and feedbacks, and additionally, on the propensity for enhanced intraseasonal signals in easterly z50 QBO winters. From a physical forcing standpoint, the brewer dobson circulation strengthens significantly prior to SSW events, which cools the tropical stratosphere. As I posted on the prior page, z70 temperatures 25N-25S are approaching record lows, which increases lapse rates, inducing enhancement in tropical divergence and convective potential - i.e., invigoration of the MJO signal. And while, no, strong MJO does not proceed every single SSW event, it is a fairly common occurrence. As said, easterly QBO winters tend to feature the MJO/strat dual pathway more significantly than westerly QBO, and there's no secret the former is a more perturbed background state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: People will freak out over this post. Not a big deal...I could be wrong on that, but if you read my forecast, I had January slight positive in sne...and moderately positive in mid atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I also said that in my last blog post that models would rush SSW, and it would end up closer to NYE....which has happened. It was supposed to be from 12/25 to 12/30. End of that is verifying, and lag =1/20 for full change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to pin anyone's ears back in this discussion... is that published. I'm just curious, how/what is/are that physically connective tissues - if you will. Obviously, ...goes without notice that the arctic domain is opposite the equitorial band. That tends to stretch the direct model's credibility some but ... who am I to say. Perhaps there's some larger integral that concurrently favors both ... so they are not causally linked, per se, but are given 'boosts' at the same time. ...heh, I like that... I mean, on the surface. ...certainly seems plausible do to the eerily coincident timing of this sudden onset warm intrusion in the usual SSW-candidate sigma levels over the arctic domain and the modeled acceleration of the MJO... Okay... But... SSW years (looking back over the 40 year's worth) tend to fire off beginning now anyway - do they all have concomitant MJOs' going nuts? I'm not sure it wasn't just a coincidence. It'd be cool if it was more directly instructive though... Know what it almost reminds me of... well, does, otherwise I wouldn't of thunk it. But, if you take a conditionally chilled medium of water ...say at 37 F (2.5 C) and suspend it in ice for a few moments...then, just slightly ting the side of the glass beaker, the suspended liquid medium flashes to ice. It's really pretty cool looking. Going the other direction ... different physics mind you, but, take a boiling cup of water... run out into field five miles outside Tower Minnesota (...but ya gotta be naked for this to work) while it's -40 F ... and throw said boiling contents into the air... Half instantly freezes and half falls shimmering to the ground while the other looks like the anvil on a thunderhead kiting away as a semi-translucent airborne snowball. The impetus there is neither... It's to draw examples pertaining to capped conditional saturation forces being suddenly set into restorative balancing, in general ... Here's a hypothesis: Ozone residence in the polar stratospheric vortex may be unable to absorb heat due to being at a delicate equilibrium with a PV=NRT ...But some kind of gravity wave... perhaps produced by the MJO its self ... very subtle propagates through the medium is that "ting" that allows the cascade uptake of thermal energy ... the PV flashes warm. I dunno...just spit ballin' Report back and let us know how that goes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Egh... that egress through the deep south with that late range operational Euro ...the only way that happens is if that SE ridge bodily decays and/or exits in tandem. Otherwise, no bueno - destined to correct toward less. As far as today goes... pretty sure the models showed a cool boundary layer suggestion. Ptype ice algorithms lingering as far S of southern NH combined unimpressive WCB wind velocity were smoking guns for retarding the surface realization of warm air. Same likely result takes place on the next system... which was originally slated to be a low end snow event by the GFS and it's parallelogram ... Since, it's more like demoing the stuck butt-bang pattern. It's a lousy winter folks.. .That's just ..it. It's bad winter, to date. If one wants to spin/rationalize that reality as somehow being otherwise by discussing where they think we are heading, that's a different discussion though. We had a fluke in November - awesome! A bunch of useless cold... but cold doesn't really factor into whether a winter is "fun" so to speak - 'least for me anywho. Unless it's something truly ludicrous ...like walking from P-Town to Logan on a slabbed ocean. 'Magine that ... heh, I get this picture of dudes leaping as the one they left bobs a little. If we want to hide in the laurels of one way back whence Novie fluke while turning the page some five or six weeks later into January ... I guess that's subjective. But even including that? The total grade to date really ...even in a subjective sense can't be higher than a D+. We'll see what January brings... until such time, bottom dweller winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 No doubt...its blown, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No doubt...its blown, so far. We had a rogue half foot in November and 2 traces in the nearly two months since. I don’t think anyone could or would argue this winter has been all time suck so far. We have a lot of ground to make up. I’m skeptical that we keep doing this every year, eventually, we won’t pull it out. Well see, long way to go, but I understand the frustration. Another holiday season flushed and heading into Jan with nothing positive on the horizon, at least in the medium term. Is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Isotherm said: I agree, Scott. Not saying it's the only variable, though I do think it's a significant one. There's quite a bit of contamination currently re: the RMM plots due to rossby / kelvin wave interference. The correct initialization of the MJO as of today is phase 6, in my view, and will be propagating through 7 and 8 by the 4th +/- a couple days. There are plenty of papers on strat-trop coupling and feedbacks, and additionally, on the propensity for enhanced intraseasonal signals in easterly z50 QBO winters. From a physical forcing standpoint, the brewer dobson circulation strengthens significantly prior to SSW events, which cools the tropical stratosphere. As I posted on the prior page, z70 temperatures 25N-25S are approaching record lows, which increases lapse rates, inducing enhancement in tropical divergence and convective potential - i.e., invigoration of the MJO signal. And while, no, strong MJO does not proceed every single SSW event, it is a fairly common occurrence. As said, easterly QBO winters tend to feature the MJO/strat dual pathway more significantly than westerly QBO, and there's no secret the former is a more perturbed background state. Trust me... I'm way aware of the coupling mechanics between the troposphere and stratosphere ... I started posting that material over at Eastern back in '04/'05. I get that... The destablization concurrence of the tropical band? It doesn't directly causally link to SSW - that's what I was after. It does suggest some factor that both are plugged into ... I think you may be on to something looking at the QBO ... But we'd have to start in the 30 mb level where the QBO modes initialize. I find it very intriguing that both the QBO, and the SSW ... both are downward propagating phenomenon. I wonder if there is a temperature component to the QBO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Ya, I’d give it a 60 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I wouldn’t say all time suck. Heck we had a substantial snow already and good cold. The real suck ones don’t have that. It’s been disappointing I would say after that fun in November. Obviously a little different in the mtns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 It's pretty rare to get near normal temps or colder in December and get skunked on snowfall. December 1943 had 0.5" at ORH despite putting up a -3 for temp departure. December 1955 pulled only 2.2" despite a -7 (!!) at ORH. But overall it's quite rare to be this bad. Definitely some negative variance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 There are some folks here that forgot about some of the winters of 80s/early 90s yore..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty rare to get near normal temps or colder in December and get skunked on snowfall. December 1943 had 0.5" at ORH despite putting up a -3 for temp departure. December 1955 pulled only 2.2" despite a -7 (!!) at ORH. But overall it's quite rare to be this bad. Definitely some negative variance there. Not Dec, but 1/14 here was 3.5° BN and my least snowy January (5.1", about 1/4 avg) of 20. The month featured AN precip as well; thru mid-month avg temp was 11.6 (4° BN), with 3.40" precip and 2.1" snowfall. Thanks to Novie, much of NNE is still playing with house money snowfall-wise, but this month has certainly disappointed, region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn’t say all time suck. Heck we had a substantial snow already and good cold. The real suck ones don’t have that. It’s been disappointing I would say after that fun in November. Obviously a little different in the mtns. 9” in mid Novie is great and all but what followed has been an utter disaster. Cold bare ground, trash...then flooding rains, trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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