weathafella Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 While I share the idea that we’ll likely do better vs what history shows, that statistic should give us some pause. It looks like 1955 and 2014 are the above, one nino and I believe 1955-56 was nina? I’m not completely sold we turn it around but the modeling looks good so let’s give it 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: While I share the idea that we’ll likely do better vs what history shows, that statistic should give us some pause. It looks like 1955 and 2014 are the above, one nino and I believe 1955-56 was nina? I’m not completely sold we turn it around but the modeling looks good so let’s give it 3 weeks. Gonna lay this out there with full confidence. Patience Grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Weeklies ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies ? Heard they look pretty damn good especially from week 2 and on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 " forecasters still feel that the second half of January into the middle of February is when winter will really kick in, but there is a possibility that the colder parts of the jet stream stay locked in Canada and we don’t end up with prolonged cold or snow " Even though everyone and his brother believes that peak climo will be something special it only takes a couple of wide-rights and it's done. I'll take under... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 hours ago, dryslot said: That 12z Euro run headed in the CMC direction for NYD. That run was close to a blue bomb on the EURO. Something to monitor at Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: " forecasters still feel that the second half of January into the middle of February is when winter will really kick in, but there is a possibility that the colder parts of the jet stream stay locked in Canada and we don’t end up with prolonged cold or snow " Even though everyone and his brother believes that peak climo will be something special it only takes a couple of wide-rights and it's done. I'll take under... good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That run was close to a blue bomb on the EURO. Something to monitor at Day 5. Yes, It won't take much, Even the crappy GGEM has had it the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: good luck You too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, It won't take much, Even the crappy GGEM has had it the last few runs. The Euro had Cutter 2 going ots a couple of runs ago now cuts, perhaps it can have a change of heart back south (just not as far) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 My winter update analysis, for any interested: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Complete agreement. Anything is possible, but nothing supports the latter scenario at present. That’s what I’ve said to a few Mets. We hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Earthlights interpretation of the Weeklies over at 33andrain https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1520-eastern-us-dec-2018-consolidated-discussion-obs/?do=findComment&comment=113318 earthlight said: ECMWF WEEKLIES 12/27 REVIEW (NORTHEAST US) .....very impressed at first look WEEK 1 | Hints of SE Ridging, Cold Air into Central US, -NAO Temps: Above Normal Precip: Above Normal Change: Slightly Warmer WEEK 2 | Major W NHEM Ridging, Troughing into East Temps: Below Normal Precip: Normal Change: Slightly Colder WEEK 3 | -EPO and -AO Develops, More Troughing in East Temps: Below Normal Precip: Normal Change: Much Colder WEEK 4 | Poleward -EPO Continues, -NAO Develops Temps: Below Normal Precip: Above Normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I made it pretty clear that there would not be a blockbuster before that date. You love to make passive aggressive inferences that I am not specific enough with my calls, but I disagree.....calling blockbusters within two weeks at several months lead is pretty fair. Happy holidays. No passive aggressive here Ray. My point was a blockbuster is not out of the question before everyone's Armageddon period. Happy holidays to you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: My life was never altered in a negative way by ratter winters nor did it get qualitatively better with epicosity. Ive been skimming this thread every few days for some insight into when this December torture might end lol, but I must comment that this quote is a masterpiece. This is summed up perfectly. I love snow more than anybody I know, but a terrible Winter will not alter my life in any way. Likewise, with as many record snowy winters as we have had in recent years, it's not like that has made my life better, just gives me some enjoyment. I think most get that, but some of them.....I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: Ive been skimming this thread every few days for some insight into when this December torture might end lol, but I must comment that this quote is a masterpiece. This is summed up perfectly. I love snow more than anybody I know, but a terrible Winter will not alter my life in any way. Likewise, with as many record snowy winters as we have had in recent years, it's not like that has made my life better, just gives me some enjoyment. I think most get that, but some of them.....I don't know. My life is better by waking up on this side of the grass everyday however as I have stated many times, my lifetime snow/cold combo goal was Feb 1934 so with 2015 I am satiated in that regard, it's all a bonus now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: While I share the idea that we’ll likely do better vs what history shows, that statistic should give us some pause. It looks like 1955 and 2014 are the above, one nino and I believe 1955-56 was nina? I’m not completely sold we turn it around but the modeling looks good so let’s give it 3 weeks. '57-'58 was 44.7 which was normal. As close as 128, there was like 80+. ORH had 2.2" going into New Years and finished with 97.5". That was a mod/strong Niño so not quite the same but it was the classic January Niño pattern flip. That seems to be the key in El Niño if December rats out on us. We will see if this one actually flips as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Big difference LR @ 500mb at hr 240 on 12z GFS vs Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: My life is better by waking up on this side of the grass everyday however as I have stated many times, my lifetime snow/cold combo goal was Feb 1934 so with 2015 I am satiated in that regard, it's all a bonus now. I have the same goal, waking on this side of the grass! Our historic winter was 2013-14, will never be topped. And i dont expect it to be. No matter how many good winters are had, it doesnt make it fun to experience a crappy one, but it should have no more affect you on a personal level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 hours ago, kdxken said: No passive aggressive here Ray. My point was a blockbuster is not out of the question before everyone's Armageddon period. Happy holidays to you :-) Yes, would love to see it. I hope I get to meet you later this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I have the same goal, waking on this side of the grass! Our historic winter was 2013-14, will never be topped. And i dont expect it to be. No matter how many good winters are had, it doesnt make it fun to experience a crappy one, but it should have no more affect you on a personal level. Skiing however is personal to me so there is definitely an affect at some level. Only a few things make me happier on a totally selfish level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I feel like I will never top 07-08. Steve feels like he will never top Feb 15. Josh feels like he will never top 13-14. That may all be true, but there’s something to be said that we’ve seen these historical stretches all over the last decade. In other words, never say never. I’ll keep holding out hope for eclipsing 12ft someday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I feel like I will never top 07-08. Steve feels like he will never top Feb 15. Josh feels like he will never top 13-14. That may all be true, but there’s something to be said that we’ve seen these historical stretches all over the last decade. In other words, never say never. I’ll keep holding out hope for eclipsing 12ft someday. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2015 was pretty crazy here but I have to think that there's a chance of a true wall-to-wall winter where things start early and basically lock in for three months. Maybe the brief interruption a few times but then quickly back to deep winter and repeated hits and/or stalled out storms that last 3 days. One can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I feel like I will never top 07-08. Steve feels like he will never top Feb 15. Josh feels like he will never top 13-14. That may all be true, but there’s something to be said that we’ve seen these historical stretches all over the last decade. In other words, never say never. I’ll keep holding out hope for eclipsing 12ft someday. What is Northfields #1 winter climo snow total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Prolly can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, rimetree said: 2015 was pretty crazy here but I have to think that there's a chance of a true wall-to-wall winter where things start early and basically lock in for three months. Maybe the brief interruption a few times but then quickly back to deep winter and repeated hits and/or stalled out storms that last 3 days. One can dream. We all hold out for the perfect winter...dendrite is correct. We're waiting for the '95-'96 without the late January meltdown or the '14-'15 with a great December. We know it is physically possible so eventually we're bound to get it. It might be in 500 years long after we're dead many times over and we've geoengineered CO2 out of the atmosphere or maybe it is in 7,000 years as we're entering the next ice age....and then 100 years later that perfect winter looks like a torch in comparison. But regardless, we all wait for it and hope that the next winter is the one. Just like we wait for some sort of 1888 stalled frontal boundary that then bombs a storm on the benchmark except even more moisture that gives us 60" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: What is Northfields #1 winter climo total? 07-08 was #2 for CON, but I had ~142” compared to their 119.5” that winter. A lot of the big numbers are late 1800s so I’ll have to do some digging to see how Franklin fared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I’ll add there’s some weenie yore in there. I find it hard to believe 5 straight winters in the early 1870s topped 100” and made the top 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: I’ll add there’s some weenie yore in there. I find it hard to believe 5 straight winters in the early 1870s topped 100” and made the top 10. I was about to post that I have my eye on those 1870s numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now