Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Non-para GFS still looks like dog dung. No mention of EURO lends me to believe it's similarly dung-like as well. Its 140 pm do you know where your children are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I believe it is just mean snowfall for the 51 members (snow includes sleet at 10:1, so probably a little high bias). But seeing the EPS spit out 40+ inches in 45 days definitely signals the potential for above average snowfall pattern setting up. How long did the EPS go for that 40+ inches to show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How long did the EPS go for that 40+ inches to show up? 45 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 45 days And when does the snowfall during those 45 days, does the mean show that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Nice little system on the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shortwave on euro isn't terrible for Xmas eve. If the goal is to merely get enough (say 1-2") for a white Christmas then it's still worth watching. The shortwave behind it is a little more intriguing. Something perhaps brewing for the 26-27th. Noreastern Mass can breathe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Yeah seems like the warming is legit, possibly leading to a displacement, Diane. But, we don’t know how it manifests itself. You don’t want to dump the cold in Europe like 2012 either. It’s defintely a good sign for an overall -AO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Noreastern Mass can breathe That is a decent system for 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: And when does the snowfall during those 45 days, does the mean show that? Not really. Individual members can give you an idea, but the mean will wash out timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 As a for instance, I don't care if the EPS shows 40 inches for BOS but 20 inches for NYC. But I do care that it shows double the snowfall for BOS, indicating that a gradient type pattern is likely as things evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: As a for instance, I don't care if the EPS shows 40 inches for BOS but 20 inches for NYC. But I do care that it shows double the snowfall for BOS, indicating that a gradient type pattern is likely as things evolve. I see, interesting. What are the teleconnections for a gradient pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: And when does the snowfall during those 45 days, does the mean show that? free link, James, you can dig into it labs.weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah seems like the warming is legit, possibly leading to a displacement, Diane. But, we don’t know how it manifests itself. You don’t want to dump the cold in Europe like 2012 either. It’s defintely a good sign for an overall -AO though. I wouldn't even be that disappointed if the PV got chucked into Europe as long as we were getting the big PNA ridging near Yukon Territory and a solid -AO. We'd probably still be really snowy but just less brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: free link, James, you can dig into it labs.weathermodels.com Not free anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't even be that disappointed if the PV got chucked into Europe as long as we were getting the big PNA ridging near Yukon Territory and a solid -AO. We'd probably still be really snowy but just less brutal cold. I was thinking the same thing. I don't really care....in March, maybe...not January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not free anymore ? are you confusing weather.us Welcome to the weathermodels.com map testing site. This website contains development (Beta) or Preview products for the main weathermodels.com site and its subscription plans (Personal Forecaster North America, Personal Forecaster International, Commercial North America, and Commercial International). Any of these items may not arrive in a timely manner or may even be missing. The maps we show here are free BONUS and are not part of any subscription plan and may be adjusted, moved or withdrawn at any time as they are assigned to the appropriate account type. ACCOUNT TYPES: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: ? are you confusing weather.us weathermodels.com is the pay site, weather.us is the free one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: weathermodels.com is the pay site, weather.us is the free one. labs.weathermodels.com is free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't even be that disappointed if the PV got chucked into Europe as long as we were getting the big PNA ridging near Yukon Territory and a solid -AO. We'd probably still be really snowy but just less brutal cold. Right, yeah. Just keep the storm track favorable. No need for Jan 04 cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? are you confusing weather.us labs has a paywall for me now. Even Joerg is putting maps under his own paywall. I wonder how Maue feels about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I didn't mind paying for the access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its the EURO the first run that it caught on. I stand corrected then. Must of been the 0z run the night of....after you already had a foot and I already broken multiple screens in my bedroom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Noreastern Mass can breathe Oh snap. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah seems like the warming is legit, possibly leading to a displacement, Diane. But, we don’t know how it manifests itself. You don’t want to dump the cold in Europe like 2012 either. It’s defintely a good sign for an overall -AO though. We need the stars to allign, wouldn’t take my pants off for a SSW, but hey we gotta put hope in something . i would say definitely more potential to be positive for the M.A -NYC crowd given what they need to go big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I stand corrected then. Must of been the 0z run the night of....after you already had a foot and I already broken multiple screens in my bedroom. I remember drawing the ire of the NYC posters....I kept telling them that the n stream would be more progressive than that, and it would not verify....we would get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right, yeah. Just keep the storm track favorable. No need for Jan 04 cold. Obviously an extreme EPO-oriented -AO can directly cause the PV to go down into Canada. So it's not like they are unrelated. But I'm ok without an extreme -EPO/+PNA. Just give a solid PNA ridge that is somewhat -EPO and that's fine...esp if we can bias a -NAO. Regardless, it definitely looks more interesting going forward...this isn't atypical for El Niño if we went good PNA/NAO look in Jan/Feb. The atypical part was getting the great look in the first 10-12 days of December and whiffing on that and then going into a bit of a La Niña gradient pattern late this month and very early January. Seems like we may start to go back to the more typical positive PNA after that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: We need the stars to allign, wouldn’t take my pants off for a SSW, but hey we gotta put hope in something Needing starts to align implies that you need a lot of luck in a bad pattern. A potent SSW during a weak modoki is as favorable as it gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: We need the stars to allign, wouldn’t take my pants off for a SSW, but hey we gotta put hope in something I don't really think it is necessary for stars to align in SNE for good snow during a weak El Niño. Well, unless your low-bound bar for "good snow" is typical Pinkham Notch climo or Stowe VT...which it might be for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 My point is I don’t think we need to role the dice as much as the M.A -NYC crowd with a SSW and hoping for the best from that so it’s a bit more bullish for areas south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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