Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think there has been an over reaction to the modeling today as there was when it showed favorable solutions, I think SNE is still in the game and south, Lot of moving parts that need to get resolved over the next day or so before mailing anything in It was very surprising to see so many good mets bite on the over correction south yesterday. I had so many people texting me, etc saying they saw on tv the storm was missing us to the south, and they saw it on tv etc etc. How could they write this off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have tempted fate these past two months by not getting a new snow blower. The slight tics N have me getting closer to pulling the trigger today or tomorrow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have tempted fate these past two months by not getting a new snow blower. The slight tics N have me getting closer to pulling the trigger today or tomorrow. Lol. Once I ran my snowblower the models ticked south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have tempted fate these past two months by not getting a new snow blower. The slight tics N have me getting closer to pulling the trigger today or tomorrow. Lol. Mine's sitting in the shed with two flat tires. I'm not taking it out. If I need to shovel, I'll shovel. Old school. 13.0/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still looking like a whiff up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It was very surprising to see so many good mets bite on the over correction south yesterday. I had so many people texting me, etc saying they saw on tv the storm was missing us to the south, and they saw it on tv etc etc. How could they write this off? Names of these good mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I did not see a single met forecasting a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I did not see a single met forecasting a whiffThere was one strongly hinting at it. BTW, still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There was one strongly hinting at it. BTW, still on the table. Agreed. I don't think it happens but not writing it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What seems to be occurring is the heavier precip further north but lighter precip further south. Tighter gradient which doesn't shock me cuz that's been the m o with these lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the NAM in an hour will be the first to have the western shortwave fully sampled. What it does with its first 48 hours should give us a clue about where things are headed. I guess these 12Z runs will tell the tale as to what general direction we are headed in. Nervous but I have my tickets for Philly. Anyone else travelling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What seems to be occurring is the heavier precip further north but lighter precip further south. Tighter gradient which doesn't shock me cuz that's been the m o with these lately. See DGEX for a perfect example. What a gradient across Ct, holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the NAM in an hour will be the first to have the western shortwave fully sampled. What it does with its first 48 hours should give us a clue about where things are headed. I guess these 12Z runs will tell the tale as to what general direction we are headed in. Nervous but I have my tickets for Philly. Anyone else travelling? Nam runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 See DGEX for a perfect example. What a gradient across Ct, holy hell. Yup. I think this previous notion of a huge precip shield is gone. This is gonna be living on the edge for alot of us. Welcome to my world of winter 2015 when ECT banged and WCT had a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yup. I think this previous notion of a huge precip shield is gone. This is gonna be living on the edge for alot of us. Welcome to my world of winter 2015 when ECT banged and WCT had a flizzard.Hopefully the euro can fail like it did for us and NYC last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the NAM in an hour will be the first to have the western shortwave fully sampled. What it does with its first 48 hours should give us a clue about where things are headed. I guess these 12Z runs will tell the tale as to what general direction we are headed in. Nervous but I have my tickets for Philly. Anyone else travelling? I may be going to Philly burbs, might wait until tomorrow to pull the trigger depending on the todays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well looks like the first run with good sampling is a good solution. 2 to go plus the GEM and the UKie. Main worry (for Philly) is warm air changing over to sleet. Didn't happen in 96 but did in 2003. Maybe I fly home to a snowy New England on Sunday if the north trend continues. It looks like we now have a legit good trend with the pressure pattern to our N and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow at the NAM..it's usually over juiced but thats a sick run for the south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sterling hoisting Blizzard Watches down in VA/MD/DC .. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506-202315-/O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...ANDPLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FORELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OFPOWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TOMINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd agree with this... but NYC covers a lot of area... think southern portions of BK/Queens may mix but don't think Manhattan does. Still so early to make such proclamations, but just hunchies Ryan kept deleting my post so I'll post it here We both have been around long enough to know how these work..It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a place like GON even get into mixing issues and a place like SNH gets 8-12 of fluff after tv guys told them 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ryan kept deleting my post so I'll post it here We both have been around long enough to know how these work..It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a place like GON even get into mixing issues and a place like SNH gets 8-12 of fluff after tv guys told them 0. lol They certainly could get 8-12 up there but who knows. I wouldn't say that these storms all work like that - that's quite a bit of wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 lol They certainly could get 8-12 up there but who knows. I wouldn't say that these storms all work like that - that's quite a bit of wishcasting. It's based on science from the aspect of it happening many many times in the past in similar setups. It's the same as someone posting whiff yesterday. Still science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All the moderators are deleting posts. Not sure why people can't just post in the correct threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DC will be shut down for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ryan kept deleting my post so I'll post it here We both have been around long enough to know how these work..It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a place like GON even get into mixing issues and a place like SNH gets 8-12 of fluff after tv guys told them 0. I thought that way, too, based on my experiences with these storms - until 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My gut tells me this will be a regrettable tweet. Hartford Courant @hartfordcourant 2m2 minutes ago Snow still possible for this weekend, but likely not much http://cour.at/1RSYAo5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 someone is mad nyc might get more than his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I thought that way, too, based on my experiences with these storms - until 2010. Yeah we had a string of them trend north ('96, '03, etc) until 2010 went the opposite direction. It's all about that confluence to the north...regardless of the reason for the confluence (in case someone says it doesn't matter because we don't have a huge block), it still is there because of that shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ryan kept deleting my post so I'll post it here We both have been around long enough to know how these work..It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a place like GON even get into mixing issues and a place like SNH gets 8-12 of fluff after tv guys told them 0. It may work out that way, but I certainly won't be holding my breath. Need this to move slower and get that s/w out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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