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Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

this proves my point from a few posts above that models at 12Z are all over the place 12Z Euro way south coming inland - low is getting vertically stacked and weakening too

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne.png

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wdrag
wdrag

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group

Rjay
Rjay

First call on the track  

Rmine1
Rmine1

Will the sun angle hold down accumulations? 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are all going to see alot of rain , wind and surge near the coast.

the rainfall amounts are of no concern in the immediate metro its the flooding on the coast that is the main concern and also the wind BUT without a saturated ground - less chance of up rooted trees just branches falling

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Tree is down on commack road. Passed it on way to lunch. Power line to. Traffic stopped 

i live 1/4 mile from there. winds gusting around 35 now. at the boat in huntington harbor at 12:30 the water level was right below the main dock and winds were gusting to 30 mph per the boat wind instruments. 

i feel as if we will have a lot of tree damage and power outages due to the long duration wind event with wet ground. 

 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

the rainfall amounts are of no concern in the immediate metro its the flooding on the coast that is the main concern and also the wind BUT without a saturated ground - less chance of up rooted trees just branches falling

The first part is incorrect. We’ve had a very wet end of Summer/early Fall and some of the rivers have already experienced flooding this month. 2-3” won’t have a huge impact but there’s going to be 4-6”+ wherever the strongest bands are.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The first part is incorrect. We’ve had a very wet end of Summer/early Fall and some of the rivers have already experienced flooding this month. 2-3” won’t have a huge impact but there’s going to be 4-6”+ wherever the strongest bands are.

yeah we are saturated here-5-6 inches 2 weeks ago an inch last sunday-won't take much to bring down some trees

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We are all going to see alot of rain , wind and surge near the coast.

 2-3 inches in immediate NYC metro if the Euro is correct is not alot of rain - we had more than that in several thunderstorms in the summer in a few hours - apparently ground conditions regarding saturation is much different region wide here in north central NJ ground is dry as a bone currently

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

LOL. Yup, that’s it. We’ve never eaten there before, luckily we got 7:30 next Saturday. 

I live in brightwaters, 5 minutes from the LH. We go there too much($$$)

Easily a top 5 restaurant on the island. If you like duck, theirs is the best.

Unfortunately they flood very easily.

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guinness77

guinness77

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

I live in brightwaters, 5 minutes from the LH. We go there too much($$$)

Easily a top 5 restaurant on the island. If you like duck, theirs is the best.

Unfortunately they flood very easily.

Was thinking venison, duck, halibut…in that order plus some oysters haha. We’ve been to Whalers/Molly Malone’s many times and enjoyed it. The Fat Fish is ok and Capt Bill’s is always great. 

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Was thinking venison, duck, halibut…in that order plus some oysters haha. We’ve been to Whalers/Molly Malone’s many times and enjoyed it. The Fat Fish is ok and Capt Bill’s is always great. 

Last restaurant post. Check out Bar Lucy in Bay Shore. Cool place, great service, and the food is on par with the LH

 

 

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
222 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-261000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260925T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.HW.W.0002.260925T1822Z-260927T1000Z/
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Long Beach Island, Atlantic City, Rehoboth
Beach, Ocean City, and Sandy Hook
222 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches County. In New Jersey,
  Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and
  Coastal Ocean Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around
or damaged by the wind.

&&
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TriPol

TriPol

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
222 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-261000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-260925T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.HW.W.0002.260925T1822Z-260927T1000Z/
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Long Beach Island, Atlantic City, Rehoboth
Beach, Ocean City, and Sandy Hook
222 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Delaware Beaches County. In New Jersey,
  Eastern Monmouth, Atlantic Coastal Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, and
  Coastal Ocean Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around
or damaged by the wind.

&&

They're literally taking a sub-990 low pressure system making landfall that's dropping buckets of rain with a 1030 high to our north and saying "Meh. Wind advisory."

Make it make sense.

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 2-3 inches in immediate NYC metro if the Euro is correct is not alot of rain - we had more than that in several thunderstorms in the summer in a few hours - apparently ground conditions regarding saturation is much different region wide here in north central NJ ground is dry as a bone currently

We could have a lot of tree damage in Riverside Park. We haven't had a storm with two days of sustained winds that push the big trees downhill in a long time. We've been losing trees and branches all summer - even on sunny days. Ground is wet.

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