Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[jbenedet]

This already has that eye type feature you only see on sub 975 mb mid latitude cyclones or true STC’s

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

I’m in Union county NJ in a flood zone.  We got destroyed by irene I had 6 feet of water in my basement from 10 inches of rain .    I would never wish that on my worst enemy.  Sandy ? Lost power for 4 days and had half inch of rain .  I would take that over getting flooded any day of the week. 

Consider yourself lucky. We had gusts to 100mph with Sandy and no power for 10 days. I was deployed to Seaside afterwards and the houses near the beach were pushed into each other like toys. Complete foundation failures. The main road in was blocked by a house that ended up there. And there were broken natural gas lines everywhere. It was truly a surreal experience. I’ll never forget being out the night of the storm when a 70 foot tree missed our truck by a few feet. 
 

That storm and riding out the mid Atlantic derecho in an RV in South Jersey were the scariest nights in my life.

[NorthShoreWx]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully we time one up with enough cold air (despite the strong el nino).

Hopefully.  It seemed like 97-98 had more nor'easters than any other winter. 

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Is there anyone here who can talk to the meteorologists at Upton? Find out what the deal is?

I've bugged them enough this week.  I'm on there real time slack group with other mets from media, emergency management etc... they didn't reply to my questioning why they issued coastal flood watch when there tide forecasts were mainly only minor... as the criteria is moderate to major. Asked if they saw the higher potential but didn't wanna issue yet? Crickets...

[WestBabylonWeather]

Haven’t started my generator in four years. I ran stabilizer through it after last use. Fingers crossed 

[SnoSki14]

Models seem pretty locked in on this getting to LI or just south and heading  due west into NJ a la Sandy. Obviously a much weaker version of that but could definitely result in major coastal flooding. 

Peak impacts are Sunday morning.  

A lot more rain than a Sandy solution given it'll be further north. 

[NJwx85]

NWS is waiting on the 12z guidance. They still have time to enhance the warning package if things continue to escalate.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I remember distinctly with Sandy it was a dry storm on LI and drought conditions leading into it. That really helped mitigate the wind and power outage impacts. 

Most of the island was out for one to two weeks.  Some mitigation. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Most of the island was out for one to two weeks.  Some mitigation. 

There’s locations on the Jersey shore that didn’t fully recover for years.

[jdj5211]

12Z Nam is wild so far...thing is just sitting off the Carolina coast and deepening....

[wthrmn654]

The ironic thing about the coastal flooding situation, from past other storms events,  my area usually lucked out from winds dying down earlier, or direction shift.... they usually were a little to high in there forecasts because they thought the models we underdone..

 

with this storm it would seem they think they're over done? Idk... with the storm more tucked in,  and slow moving,  south of Long Island and modeled to be stronger the wind directions are all changed, from a more north/ northeast, to now it being northeast, to a more easterly direction with at times some south depending on timing all of which is going funnel the crap into long island sound,  gardiners/ peconic bay etc..

[wthrmn654]

Last thing it is a bit sandyish like, as we got closer and closer to the event, the tide forecasts kept ramping up and up and up

 

Just like this one

[MANDA]

This event is moving towards being very impactful over this subform.  Been trying to keep my thoughts in check the last day or so not wanting to hype but this system has been throttling up the last 24-36 hours towards upper ranges of potential in all aspects.  Coastal flooding and erosion, rainfall totals and wind potential have all ramped up with each model cycle.  Have been worried all along about major coastal flooding and that now seems likely at some locations.  Winds have become a bigger factor as well especially over the more inland areas.  Power outages could be widespread with wet ground and winds gusting to 50 mph+ along the coast and up to 40 mph more inland.  Excessive rainfall totals now very possible over parts of the area. Some areas will not be able to take that much rain on top of what has fallen recently.  Especially southern tier of CT and into NE NJ.

Will be interesting to watch this unfold.  Batten down the hatches if you are a coastal dweller.

 

[MANDA]

25 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Also, why haven't NY and NJ issued states of emergency? 

NJ leadership has other issues going on.

This is a case where they might actually need one, so we'll see when or if it comes.  I think more when than if.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

NJ leadership has other issues going on.

This is a case where they might actually need one. so we'll see when or if it comes.  I think more when than if.

There’s a major fear in the industry right now over cried wolf syndrome. There’s more cautioun now than ever before about issuing public warnings. When it happens it’s usually right before the event.

[Prue11]

This is not sandy!!! Major storm with major impacts yes, but not sandy impacts 

[NJwx85]

The erratic NAM looks East of 6z.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The erratic NAM looks East of 6z.

3k is so different from 12k

[Superstorm]

3K NAM is a horrible outcome for Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay, LI.

[Neblizzard]

13 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

3K NAM is a horrible outcome for Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay, LI.

With a track like that , coastal flooding will be major indeed. 

[TriPol]

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

3K NAM is a horrible outcome for Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay, LI.

The 3K NAM initialized with the low pressure system at 987. That means, right now, the low pressure should be at 987. I don't know where to go to see the current pressure, but I doubt it's below 1000.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

The 3K NAM initialized with the low pressure system at 987. That means, right now, the low pressure should be at 987. I don't know where to go to see the current pressure, but I doubt it's below 1000.

yeah in the NE forum they are all tossing it-saying it thinks it's purely tropical which is wrong

[Rjay]

3k shouldn't be used in this situation 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah in the NE forum they are all tossing it-saying it thinks it's purely tropical which is wrong

That's what it does 

[2112wxgrl]

It just became quite gusty outside and I’m way up in Wantage. 
My daughter and her college friends are headed to OC MD this evening. They’re supposed to go to Oceans Calling tomorrow. Today’s lineup was canceled. I highly doubt tomorrow’s show will happen. The high tides have been beating up the beach there for days now.

[Stormlover74]

Nam keeps going through Monday 

[jconsor]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The 3K NAM initialized with the low pressure system at 987. That means, right now, the low pressure should be at 987. I don't know where to go to see the current pressure, but I doubt it's below 1000.

WPC analyzed the low as 995 mb at 15z: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=sfc

[Stormlover74]

Just now, 2112wxgrl said:

It just became quite gusty outside and I’m way up in Wantage. 
My daughter and her college friends are headed to OC MD this evening. They’re supposed to go to Oceans Calling tomorrow. Today’s lineup was canceled. I highly doubt tomorrow’s show will happen. The high tides have been beating up the beach there for days now.

Yeah the gusts are already approaching 40 mph

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

Last thing it is a bit sandyish like, as we got closer and closer to the event, the tide forecasts kept ramping up and up and up

 

Just like this one

Sandy had been a Cat 3 hurricane at one point and had a pressure around 940mb.  This is not Sandy.

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, jconsor said:

WPC analyzed the low as 995 mb at 15z: 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=sfc

Wow! That explains a lot of why the forecast keeps getting worse for this beast. It hasn't even begun to deepen rapidly and its already down to 995. A lot of the forecasts from the EURO and GFS kept it just at 988 or even 987. I wonder if we get into the 970s and if we do, that's a completely different beast than what we were looking at early to mid week this week.