Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 12z UKMET closer and  close to the GFS/GEGM Solution - UKMET does have a suppressed bias (at least it used to)

 

 

[Jt17]

 
2/18 12z UKMET closer and  close to the GFS/GEGM Solution - UKMET does have a suppressed bias (at least it used to)


 

 

Was also 100s of miles west of 0z last night. Just couldn't quite turn the corner.


.

[SACRUS]

2/18 12z UKMET Total QPF

[snowman19]

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be

[SACRUS]

GEFS still lean right of the gfs 

 

 

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I mean, yeah, it could change and the most likely scenario isn’t a massive HECS… but you’re telling me the ceiling, which is the top should everything fall exactly right, is 6-10”?

I don’t take issue with your experience or forecasting chops, just the notion of that low a ceiling this far out given the look

also, if anything, I’d be more worried about it “blowing its load”, so to speak, south of us than hitting SNE more, unless you’re specifically referring to like the Cape as opposed to the region at large

When we get a run where the SLP tracks inside the benchmark, then I'll get excited. Also, when something shows more than just a glancing blow from the deformation banding which largely remains offshore, even with today's 12z suite so far.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, snowman19 said:

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be
 

Agreed about the budget cuts. People have no idea how detrimental they've been to the public along with everything else horrible the administration has done to government agencies. 

[MJO812]

Gefs much better 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed about the budget cuts. People have no idea how detrimental they've been to the public along with everything else horrible the administration has done to government agencies. 

Explains why the models are especially bad this winter....

[RU848789]

4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Not so fast my friend as Lee Corso used to say, as the Euro jumps back NW quite a ways....

 

 

 

Looks like the 6Z Euro may have been the harbinger for the 12Z comeback.  Let's hope the AIFS/Euro look better, like the GFS/CMC/UK do.  

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Explains why the models are especially bad this winter....

It's probably why the Euro AI looks like a wizard in comparison when it likely would have been on par or even below the GFS/CMC/Euro 

[RU848789]

Like this...

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Like this...

is that King Kong ? They were ignoring the PM models that reduced the impact of the storm here since it was made at 2:38 PM yesterday

[Monty]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be
 

I'm surprised that it's more affordable to fly a hurricane hunter than it is to launch a few dozen balloons. 

[hudsonvalley21]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All the 0z runs last night got new hurricane hunter recon flight data. There’s another hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission tonight at 0z, so those upcoming runs will also have the new data. The 6z, 12z, 18z runs today aren’t going to have it. They are sending up the reconnaissance flights at 0z because of what DT spoke of the other day….budget cuts leading to weather balloons not being launched anymore from sites they used to be
 

Makes total sense. My thoughts are the 12z runs Thursday will be honing in and hopefully there will be model consensus.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

2/1 12z Summary

 

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8
UKMET: 0.1
GEFS: 0.3

updated

[WeatherGeek2025]

what time does the Euro AI come out?

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed about the budget cuts. People have no idea how detrimental they've been to the public along with everything else horrible the administration has done to government agencies. 

You want to talk about cuts to weather agencies? That is fine. Keep your other politics out of this forum.

 

I come to places like this to get away from all that. Thanks

[Neblizzard]

I agree with snowman19 on this one.   This either will be a massive hit or a grazer.   We’ll see over the next day or so. 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

You want to talk about cuts to weather agencies? That is fine. Keep your other politics out of this forum.

 

I come to places like this to get away from all that. Thanks

Unfortunately if you’re going to talk about budget cuts to NOAA and other scientific entities, it’s impossible to not talk about those perpetrating it

But I digress, 12z runs thus far have pretty much shown improvement across the board aloft so far. Here’s hoping the Euro follows suit

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

I agree with snowman19 on this one.   This either will be a massive hit or a grazer.   We’ll see over the next day or so. 

so snow or no snow? got it

[Nibor]

AI euro is a hair west. Mostly in line with 6z.

[SACRUS]

2/18 12z EURO AI AIFS:

 

2

 

 

3

 

 

4

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 12z EUro AI AIFS 

Total QPF

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro is no bueno

[MJO812]

Euro lmfao way east

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro is no bueno

Do you prefer Venmo, zelle, Apple Pay? I’ll take my 10 dollars 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro lmfao way east

Flat as a pancake.    Either it's going to score a coup here or get embarrassed by the GFS/CMC

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Do you prefer Venmo, zelle, Apple Pay? I’ll take my 10 dollars 

zcash

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Flat as a pancake.    Either it's going to score a coup here or get embarrassed by the GFS/CMC

I’ll take coup. But never know