Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude.

The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

The block is crushing it south and the ridge axis is a little too far east for us. Can these change yes, but these are two big factors that would squelch any major storm chance. 

[nycsnow]

Icon blows up offshore pretty much a non event for most of us 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

Take a look at the 500 charts, this run verbatim doesn’t get us there, but the changes were marked and in the right direction overall

The entire evolution is different WRT that initial low. We need that look to come back.

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Icon blows up offshore pretty much a non event for most of us 

Better than 6z. All we can ask for.

[NEG NAO]

Also need the ridge out in the Rockies to shift westward also using the ICON 5 days out is useless IMO - this will not be centered over a relatively small area of the DEL MARVA

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It was better than 6z. However our issue is not being closer to the coast but rather the storm gaining latitude.

The biggest runs had a double low with the initial low getting to WV. Now that this low is missing the storm forms and moves ENE instead of NE. Perhaps due to the below average water temps up here.

The upper levels drive the lower levels, not the other way around.

The 6z and, to a lesser extent 00z, were further off than the 12z to being a much bigger deal up here

heights backed significantly more ahead of the system. You tilt that initial s/w ahead of the ULL more meridionally, all the Sudden you end up cutting it off 50-100 miles north and have a different story

We can work with something similar to what the 12z ICON shows, the previous few runs, not so much

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 12z ICON Total QPF

[SACRUS]

 

 

2/1 12z Summary

 

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8
UKMET: 0.1
GEFS: 0.3

[nycsnow]

ICON eps a bit further s/e

[SACRUS]

 

GFS AI AIGFS

 

[nycsnow]

Lol

[SACRUS]

 

GFS AI AIGFS total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24

[NJwx85]

I was never excited about this threat.  To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us. 

[MJO812]

Jb thinks blizzard

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I was never excited about this threat.  To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us. 

Positive trends at 6z

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Positive trends at 6z

I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jb thinks blizzard

Oh damnit it’s over. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I see the 12z GFS is further North. I just think, given this setup at H5 that this will develop/bomb out too far offshore. The overrunning precip to our West will dry up and everything will jump offshore. This favors SNE.

 

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS closer to coast

[MJO812]

[nycsnow]

Gfs is heartbreakingly close haha

[NEG NAO]

GFS has this really bombing out close enough still plenty of time

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jb thinks blizzard

For who cape cod?

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS closer to coast

Yeah, and?

The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.

[Jt17]

For who cape cod?

Gfs just moved back towards the coast and north a couple 100 miles since last night. Wouldn't take much more.


.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

If that ridge is east of Idaho it’s game over. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Yeah, and?

The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.

it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run

[Wxbear25]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

 

Yeah, and?

The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.

Verbatim, yes.

Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim

The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint

I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL

[NEG NAO]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

it still is snowing in the imm

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

If that ridge is east of Idaho it’s game over. 

ediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone

we will still see some snow