Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SACRUS]

 

2/17 12z UKMET

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

U
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[SACRUS]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow
GGEM:  1.9 / Hvy prolific  snow
UKMET:   1.1 / Hvy snow
 

 

Updated suite 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week

Friday snow event is definitely further S  verbatim

[kat5hurricane]

This is some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least.

[Brian5671]

Social media hysteria will commence shortly.  

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

This some crazy model consensus this far out. It could easily wind up being a whiff but when most of the major models converge on a similar solution even 5-6 days out it garners attention at the very least.

Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Social media hysteria will commence shortly.  

Its already

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Friday snow event is definitely further S  verbatim

Yep. Then it goes full on historic blizzard with a deep freeze right after. If it’s correct (big IF), it would totally shut down and cripple NYC for days, if not a week

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Updated suite 

Remarkable consensus 5+ days out. The kind you really wish happened 24+ hours out instead because so much can go wrong. 

Ensembles will be key right now however getting the CMC on board is huge along with AI models which have been doing great. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Friday snow event is definitely further S  verbatim

Gfs has another snow event after this weekend

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has another snow event after this weekend

one at a time -lol - where is that Philadelphia dude who was predicting the big warmup ? Also I hope sleet doesn't get involved in this that is  part of the reason we still have a thick layer of ice/snow on the ground from the storm over 3 weeks ago

[MJO812]

AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. 

GFS has been hot garbage for a while including the GEFS too

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. 

thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. 

Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI GEFS is great. Regular gefs is horrible. 

GFS has been great this winter 

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS has been hot garbage for a while including the GEFS too

I remember for the storm 3 weeks ago, when all the other models were trending north, the GFS had a couple of runs where it was a disjointed mess and stayed mostly south. This was just 4 days out. Obviously that didn’t verify.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run

Or the Euro. Although its performance this season has been tepid at best. 

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

GFS has been great this winter 

Classic gefs. Its not far off.

[WeatherGeek2025]

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

Blizzard watches were discontinued in late 2017. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

When you self bar yourself again.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

Please, it's still 5-6 days away. Time for many things to change, but I like where they are today. 

[nycwinter]

we are due to hit pay dirt with this storm end winter with a bang..

[Mr. T.]

Still waiting until Friday night to get excited. Have a feeling this will be warmer then its depicting, but glad to see a lot of models coming together to at least show something. Long way to go still.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, nycwinter said:

we are due to hit pay dirt with this storm end winter with a bang..

Why does everyone want to end winter while still in February? Approaching mid March I might understand it especially for all of you NYC and south.. 

[Metasequoia]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

Per Noaa - Watches are issued up to 72 hours in advance with forecaster confidence around 50%. So... if things look really good on Thursday, Winter Storm watches will be hoisted. 

[SI Mailman]

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

After 12z runs on Saturday. Storm is still very far away