Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle. 

I think if the previous system was strong then I agree but a weak shortwave 2 days ahead of the next is plenty of spacing imo. 

[EastonSN+]

6z GFS was solid. ICON looked like it was going to improve over 0Z.

Of the operational runs, only the EURO showed nothing. 

Either we all hail EURO in the end or all other models end up closer to correct.

Still a lot of time of course.

[EastonSN+]

The ICON FWIW 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

6z GFS was solid. ICON looked like it was going to improve over 0Z.

Of the operational runs, only the EURO showed nothing. 

Either we all hail EURO in the end or all other models end up closer to correct.

Still a lot of time of course.

The 6z Euro showed a big improvement and that model has stunk lately too. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think if the previous system was strong then I agree but a weak shortwave 2 days ahead of the next is plenty of spacing imo. 

We have had smaller events like the 6z Euro presently shows for the 2nd system. But it’s rare to get a 12”+ like a few of the OP runs have been showing only 2 days after another system. That’s why I am going with an ensemble mean blend right now for the 2nd system. But since nothing is impossible, I am watching to see if the ensemble means move toward some of the more amped solutions in coming runs. Really volatile and delicate set up.

[NEG NAO]

28 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

6z EURO OP took a step towards the other models. Good improvements from 0z.

Even shows rain to start just south of NYC - what we don't want is this to track too close to the coast because the cold air is marginal - although a more intense system can create dynamic cooling - still early in the game so we will probably have to go through the model madness as usual.

[WeatherGeek2025]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Even shows rain to start just south of NYC - what we don't want is this to track too close to the coast because the cold air is marginal - although a more intense system can create dynamic cooling - still early in the game so we will probably have to go through the model madness as usual.

plenty of cold as long as we have a the right track don't overthink stuff, this storm is going to be a huge storm! and it's quite a slow mover!

[Nibor]

Last 8 runs of the AI euro.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

plenty of cold as long as we have a the right track don't overthink stuff, this storm is going to be a huge storm! and it's quite a slow mover!

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum   "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum   "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

the pieces are in place, now they need to come together. and therein lies the rub.....if you ever get kocin's book, the best chapter is on near misses, imo....

[SnowGoose69]

The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer.  If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening.  As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday

[Santa Claus]

looking forward to this much-needed rain

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

looking forward to this much-needed rain

Have fun Santa, as always ….

 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

looking forward to this much-needed rain

When

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

When

Wed and Fri

[PhiEaglesfan712]

55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what this all comes down to is the timing of the northern energy and the southern energy and how and IF they phase together and where and IF that happens closer to the east coast. Typical Miller B setup - and as Don mentioned in his late afternoon post in the main forum   "An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). "

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

Not sure that's a good analog-due to severe blocking it was mainly rain NE of NYC into New England.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

Last hurrah for who? Southeast Pennsylvania?

[Stormlover74]

Icon!

[Nibor]

12z icon is now on board and in line with other guidance.

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

12z icon is now on board and in line with other guidance.

Huge hit! Has a foot plus for this subforum (and the entire state of NJ). 

[mob1]

[Nibor]

[Brian5671]

Not sure I want to be in the jackpot 5-6 days out...but that's an incredible setup on the ICON

[weathermedic]

I'm already being asked by co-workers "so how much snow are we getting this weekend" It must be out on social media 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure I want to be in the jackpot 5-6 days out...but that's an incredible setup on the ICON

BINGO……..

time to watch the definition of insanity play out again. Seen this movie multiple times this year. Yes we did get lucky a few times. And winter overall has been great. This would be a great way to close it out but like you said bullseye 5-6 days out usually doesn’t bode well for us. Time will tell. 

[SACRUS]

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow
GGEM:  1.9 / Hvy prolific  snow
UKMET:   1.1 / Hvy snow
GEFS:  0.4 / mostly misses
EURO AI AIFS:  1.1 / hvy snow
 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, weathermedic said:

I'm already being asked by co-workers "so how much snow are we getting this weekend" It must be out on social media 

I was spreading that news across all my platforms yesterday haha

[SACRUS]

12z icon Total QPF

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Huge hit! Has a foot plus for this subforum (and the entire state of NJ). 

You don't see that configuration happen too often. Uniform snow amounts from Poughkeepsie to the south Jersey shore.  Doesn't matter at this point, what matters is there is consistently a storm in one form or another.