It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Given how far south this storm will be and the airmass i could see the former

I doubt there's ever been a storm where Hatteras gets a foot and we get nothing

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I doubt there's ever been a storm where Hatteras gets a foot and we get nothing

Cape Hatteras- 13.3in. — The two-day cumulative snow record covered the period from December 24th, 1989 to December 25th, 1989.

[WeatherGeek2025]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

What's more likely, the outer banks getting crushed or it coming further north?

I feel like these always tend to favor New England but we do get some big hits here and there! Hopefully models start honing on some northwest trends in the next few hours!

[Stormlover74]

And of course feb 89. Don't know what they got down there but up to AC got like a foot and nothing fell north of Tom's river 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cape Hatteras- 13.3in. — The two-day cumulative snow record covered the period from December 24th, 1989 to December 25th, 1989.

ah yes the crazy Dec 1989 pattern.   

[Big Jims Videos]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go.

*responsible* media is just alerting folks of a potential with no ridiculous model outputs....Facebook pages for $$, forget it. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Someone could still get a foot plus like in the outer banks or cape cod

Or we can get slammed. Everything is on the table. 

[jm1220]

The ridge axis so far west gives me more hope this won’t slip out to sea. It’s in a place where honestly it’s better for the Apps. If it was say over the Dakotas that would be more of a problem. But a couple of tweaks which are very doable at this stage and we’re back to monster solutions. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or we can get slammed. Everything is on the table. 

Sure. I think a scraper is most likely. Or just a total miss 

[NEG NAO]

The key points to remember for today IMO

1. the key piece of energy that will generate the trough lalter this week is still far north in Canada and there is sparse sampling up there.

2. The trough down south later this week has to take on a negative tilt sooner than later and further west for this storm to get close enough to the coast to give us a major storm. If it waits to go negative further east the storm will ride up the coast further east.

3. The reason the trough has to go negative earlier and further west is because the upward motion in the atmosphere is on the northeastern flank of the trough promotes heavier precip and this will be centered over the metro if the storm is close to the coast and out to sea if it goes negative to late.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The ridge axis so far west gives me more hope this won’t slip out to sea. It’s in a place where honestly it’s better for the Apps. If it was say over the Dakotas that would be more of a problem. But a couple of tweaks which are very doable at this stage and we’re back to monster solutions. 

Going out to sea is more a product of this closing off too early than issues with the trough orientation.

[Joe4alb]

I know its the 84hr NAM but the uppers look much for like the EURO-AI then the EURO. 

[mikem81]

I think today is a day where each model can jump 200-250 miles in either direction. Once within 72-96 hours that’s much less likely as you get 50-100 mile moves and then the typical 25-50 shift within 24-48 hours 

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/27 06z QPF summary

 

ICON:

 

GFS:

 

GGEM:

UKMET:

 

GEFS:

 

GFS AI AIGFS:

 

EURO:
AIFS:



EPS:

 

[Jt17]

 
 
1/27 06z QPF summary
 
ICON:


 
GFS:


 
GGEM:




UKMET:


 
GEFS:


 
GFS AI AIGFS:


 
EURO:
AIFS:



EPS:


 

Your gfs ai and euro ai are 6 hour qpf - can you update with the total?


.

[SACRUS]

 

1/27 06Z Ensemble mean 

 

GEFS:

ICON enembles:

 

GEFS:

 

EPS:

 

[SACRUS]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Your gfs ai and euro ai are 6 hour qpf - can you update with the total?


.

Thanks for ctaching that JTGFS AI AIGFS:

 

EURO AI AIFS:

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

As a certified IMBY snow weenie, of course I want this to happen. I just don’t have that fuzzy feeling yet. 

[Lucy Pull]

15 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

I know its the 84hr NAM but the uppers look much for like the EURO-AI then the EURO. 

Yeah looks to be a midpoint solution between GFS and EURO operational.

Long range NAM like you mentioned though.

[Heisy]

I think today is a day where each model can jump 200-250 miles in either direction. Once within 72-96 hours that’s much less likely as you get 50-100 mile moves and then the typical 25-50 shift within 24-48 hours 

Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.

[TJW014]

I like where this is at so far. Not far off from giving a significant snowfall for much of the region, though I'm excited being at the coast. Still plenty of time for shifts. I wouldn't focus completely on low placement until tomorrow/Thursday. 

I'm feeling January 2018 (especially with the cold week prior) and January 2022 vibes. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Thing is the northern stream is sitting in S Canada right now. It isn’t like this is energy coming off the PAC and poorly sampled. Not saying it can’t happen, but I don’t expect any type of giant shifts personally. I hope I’m wrong though.

Northern Canada is a very data sparse region....

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

I like where this is at so far. Not far off from giving a significant snowfall for much of the region, though I'm excited being at the coast. Still plenty of time for shifts. I wouldn't focus completely on low placement until tomorrow/Thursday. 

I'm feeling January 2018 (especially with the cold week prior) and January 2022 vibes. 

Yep, I don’t see this as something that comes storming back and we’re sweating the mix/rain line but we’ll see. There is the kicker right on its heels and the NAO blocking so there’s only so far west it can really trend but 150-200 miles, sure. 

[Joe4alb]

So far Looks like the ICON will be improved. Holding back the energy allowing the trough axis to be displaced further west and ridging to amplify off the coast 

[Joe4alb]

[jdj5211]

ICON OTS


.

[Joe4alb]

[Jt17]

ICON OTS


.

Much improved, but it has the most to shift


.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

Great shift

[Wxbear25]

Get that southern energy a little slower and/or that northern energy a little faster and I think the ICON would have been a hit. Right now it runs that southern energy ahead of the ULL over the SE which takes over too far east