Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Prue11]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

All i know is it happened after sandy cause we were closed for 6 months and when it hit it was bad with snow rain to heavy snow,  with so much icy mess buried.  

Nemo 

[Blizzardo]

Nemo was 2015 if I recall. NJ was forecast 18-24 and only the NAM that no one believed had it pegged going wide right hitting Eastern LI with the big snow. 

[Prue11]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

Nemo was 2015 if I recall. NJ was forecast 18-24 and only the NAM that no one believed had it pegged going wide right hitting Eastern LI with the big snow. 

Nope it was 2/8 and 2/9 2013 just googled it

[Prue11]

My buddy had to abandon his car on LIE like many others. It was impossible travel 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Don't assume it can't trend even worse.

Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out. 

[Prue11]

@wthrmn654 @Blizzardo

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02092013

good read

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah, this is a frozen event but sleet could do a huge number on reducing accumulations. Still it’s much better than freezing rain which would be horrific. 

If this is turning into a SWFE those caveats apply. We need the snow to come in like a wall which hopefully we can make happen into a big high/overrunning surface like this, and it’s a race between the warm mid level air and how fast we can accumulate. The mid levels couldn’t care less about how cold the surface is. If we have 700/850 lows going NW of us and late transfer we will mix. But there could be a lot of snow before that happens. Plenty of time for trends in either direction and if the full phase happens we need the confluence or it will try to cut. 

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

My buddy had to abandon his car on LIE like many others. It was impossible travel 

Than maybe 2015 was Juno?

[donsutherland1]

Two maps while we wait for the 0z cycle to kick off:

Threat of Heavy Snow:

Probability of a Major Winter Storm Impact:

It should be noted that within the next day or two, model skill in handling synoptic details will improve markedly over the current lead time. That process could accelerate somewhat with tonight's reconnaissance flight.

 

 

[Prue11]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

Than maybe 2015 was Juno?

Yea Juno was 2015

[jerseyshorewxguy]

how does this storm plow into a huge cold high and cause mixing like it ain't nothing something does not add up?

this post was barely literate. As others have said you need to watch for the mid level warming here based on placememt of 850 low. Valentine's Day 2007 temp never got above 25 and it was a sleet fest. I don't think that will happen here, but it isn't as simple as a storm plowing into cold air. and I think that EDuggs posts are good--certainly better than yours.

[Winterweatherlover]

41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Just based on historical climo alone.  I know of no cases other than Jan 87 2/11/94 and 2/2014 where the area saw 8 plus near the coast then flipped over.  I guess you can argue 2/2008 but that was not a setup like this.  In general this type of setup is all snow most of the time NYC vicinity north

To sleet? it's happened a lot I think, rain almost never. I guess it also depends what you define near the coast, for example March 2017 in lower Westchester was snow to sleet to snow with almost a foot of snow and lots of sleet. 

 

Honestly now that i think of it it's happened many times even in the city I just can't remember exact dates, snowicane was another example that comes to mind with 12+ despite different precip types. There was another storm I believe that same winter that was snow to sleet/drizzle to snow that dumped like 19 inches in Queens.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If this is turning into a SWFE those caveats apply. We need the snow to come in like a wall which hopefully we can make happen into a big high/overrunning surface like this, and it’s a race between the warm mid level air and how fast we can accumulate. The mid levels couldn’t care less about how cold the surface is. If we have 700/850 lows going NW of us and late transfer we will mix. But there could be a lot of snow before that happens. Plenty of time for trends in either direction and if the full phase happens we need the confluence or it will try to cut. 

I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. 

Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet 

[liwxfan]

Yes Nemo in 2013 was THE storm of all time for those of us in central suffolk county. I was in Mt. Sinai at the time and had constant thunder snow after sunset. The heaviest rates I've ever experienced to this day. Had about 30 inches. Cars abandoned everywhere. 

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Yea Juno was 2015

Yea... And then NJ got dumped on in 2016. I had like 27 inches I think.. lol

[Blizzardo]

Just now, liwxfan said:

Yes Nemo in 2013 was THE storm of all time for those of us in central suffolk county. I was in Mt. Sinai at the time and had constant thunder snow after sunset. The heaviest rates I've ever experienced to this day. Had about 30 inches. Cars abandoned everywhere. 

Juno hit you hard too but not as deep.. lol

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

Juno hit you hard too but not as deep.. lol

Yeah I didn’t do nearly as good during Juno as Nemo in central Suffolk

[eduggs]

28 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We do need to watch the position of the 850 mb low on the Euro AI.  These screenshots are from 12z and 18z.  It’s getting further north and that will act to promote mid level warming.

The warmest layer might not be 850mb. It could be higher up.

[liwxfan]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

Juno hit you hard too but not as deep.. lol

Ya.  Juno was forecast to be even worse.  I remember being let down tho. Got about half of what was forecast.  Opposite with Nemo.

[Noteaster101]

Like Bernie Reno says, when you can smell the rain, that’s when you get the biggest snows! I’m looking pretty good here in Rockland County New York for this storm

[Blizzardo]

2 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

Ya.  Juno was forecast to be even worse.  I remember being let down tho. Got about half of what was forecast.  Opposite with Nemo.

Huge huge letdown. I got like a 10th of what was forecast... Lol

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

how does this storm plow into a huge cold high and cause mixing like it ain't nothing something does not add up?

Check 500mb. This is very helpful for visualizing the movement of storms. Surface features like surface highs and lows affect surface parameters like wind and surface temperature. But they don't affect shit aloft. They RESULT FROM upper level features. They get steered by the upper levels, not the other way around.

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Like Bernie Reno says, when you can smell the rain, that’s when you get the biggest snows! I’m looking pretty good here in Rockland County New York for this storm

Agreed feeling good here. Mixing does get pretty close but by that time we are sitting on 10-16”.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Agreed feeling good here. Mixing does get pretty close but by that time we are sitting on 10-16”.

For now and what I mean by that is I don’t think it’s done trending. 

[eduggs]

The 18z ICON is relatively warm and amped, but it also shows a pathway to really big totals and a longer duration event. With a full phase there is a sharp trof back to the west Sunday night. This partly captures the surface low over the Atlantic and induces another round of precipitation in EPA, NJ, SENY, and SNE on Monday after nearly dryslotting late Sunday. Notice the 18z ICON isn't done snowing at 120hrs. It shows a nearly stalled and intensifying 995mb low just off NY Harbor with light to moderate snow throughout the area. A few model runs (and several individual ensemble members) have blown up this coastal low adding several tenths of QPF on Monday. Shift the ICON slightly south with the overrunning and you have a very significant and long duration event.

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, liwxfan said:

Yes Nemo in 2013 was THE storm of all time for those of us in central suffolk county. I was in Mt. Sinai at the time and had constant thunder snow after sunset. The heaviest rates I've ever experienced to this day. Had about 30 inches. Cars abandoned everywhere. 

I moved to commack in 2015, so i missed it by two years. But the reports show 29" in commack. Back in nassau i had only 14" or so. Bummer!

That 29" is probably an all timer for us. bigger than 96, PD 1, PD2, Boxing day, etc.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I moved to commack in 2015, so i missed it by two years. But the reports show 29" in commack. Back in nassau i had only 14" or so. Bummer!

That 29" is probably an all timer for us. bigger than 96, PD 1, PD2, Boxing day, etc.

I also made the Nassau to Suffolk move. But I haven’t been as lucky as you. But the last big one I made out well had almost like 2 feet 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I moved to commack in 2015, so i missed it by two years. But the reports show 29" in commack. Back in nassau i had only 14" or so. Bummer!

That 29" is probably an all timer for us. bigger than 96, PD 1, PD2, Boxing day, etc.

Would have been 20” easy in Long Beach where I was then had we not wasted hours on heavy sleet. It absolutely dumped. 

[liwxfan]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I moved to commack in 2015, so i missed it by two years. But the reports show 29" in commack. Back in nassau i had only 14" or so. Bummer!

That 29" is probably an all timer for us. bigger than 96, PD 1, PD2, Boxing day, etc.

You missed the storm of a lifetime.  I drove home from setauket through port jeff to mt. Sinai. Almost didn't make it.  Snowing harder then I've ever seen the rates were incredible. Was passing so many who were stuck on the roads. Barely made it in my jeep. There was thunder snow no joke for like an hour straight on the mt sinai harbor.  I measured 33 inches where I was.  It was un believable.  Also the storm i compare all others to since.  We were right on the rain /snow line for hours right before sunset.  Once the sun set it was incredible.

[WeatherGeek2025]

39 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Nemo was 2015 if I recall. NJ was forecast 18-24 and only the NAM that no one believed had it pegged going wide right hitting Eastern LI with the big snow. 

it was the GFS that had it going wide right! Nam and Euro had us at 30 inch forecast