December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

Seeing as one of those January days had a low of -2...yep, sounds like it, lol Ya had only 4 days the entire month get to 40 degrees! Snowfall, on the other hand...was 8.5"...and we only measured a trace for the rest of the season. Oof...and seeing as the next year was a Niño, I wonder if 1976-77 was indeed a dying nina like this one seems to be. Rather paltry results in the snowfall department...and February torched as you'd expect, lol

Anybody got what they indices (AO/NAO/PNA) were that winter?

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

Would be real nice is this verified lol

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

it actually looks like a ridge lol

Yes I know.  Was a poor attempt at humor lol

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2" - 4" for Christmas would be solid 

I'd take an inch for Christmas. That would be cool!!

[bncho]

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

[mitchnick]

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210

The other threat starting at 288hrs:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288

Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

[snowfan]

GFS showing some mixed precip possible for the northers heading into Christmas Day. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

GFS showing some mixed precip possible for the northers heading into Christmas Day. 

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary. 

Something has been brewing on all the LR ops between Dec 28-Jan 2 period for a few days now as blocking gets going. Sniffing something out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

NW US trof gets some help from the East-based -NAO. As you said, without any sort of a block we would be toast with that PAC look.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

[Weather Will]

Torch my #%#!!!

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

That dark red that pops up over Baffin Island on last nights EPS is quite appealing.

[kgottwald]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Seeing as one of those January days had a low of -2...yep, sounds like it, lol Ya had only 4 days the entire month get to 40 degrees! Snowfall, on the other hand...was 8.5"...and we only measured a trace for the rest of the season. Oof...and seeing as the next year was a Niño, I wonder if 1976-77 was indeed a dying nina like this one seems to be. Rather paltry results in the snowfall department...and February torched as you'd expect, lol

Anybody got what they indices (AO/NAO/PNA) were that winter?

January 1977 had record cold monthly means throughout the southeast. Even Miami and the Bahamas had snow flurries! Here in northern VA I remember a weeks-long period of snow cover but with a thick coating of ice - so you couldn't really play in it or build snowmen.

The only areas to excel in snow that year were the lake-effect belts. Buffalo was absolutely isolated from the rest of the world for a time, with cars and trucks invisible under the drifts.

[winter_warlock]

13 hours ago, Ji said:

we dont need to be in the blue. We can survive +1 or +2......we just cant be orange or red(temp wise)

As long as we're not in the orange or red lol

[aldie 22]

Literally yesterday some of you were talking about waiting until the back half of January lol

[winter_warlock]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see

 Ridge keeps backing up west!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Ridge keeps backing up west!!!

Already have seen this same retrogression of said ridge axis 2 other times in the past couple of weeks. LR ridge in OV ends up verifying out in the Western Plains/Eastern Rockies. Nice to see. 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Literally yesterday some of you were talking about waiting until the back half of January lol

Weeklies saying we have to wait doesn’t mean I was waiting 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Already have seen this same retrogression of said ridge axis 2 other times in the past couple of weeks. LR ridge in OV ends up verifying out in the Western Plains/Eastern Rockies. Nice to see. 

Yes it is...    Torch no longer  in the cards!!!

[H2O]

I said about a week ago that if there is to be any ATL blocking it helps if it’s NAO because we need the road blocked closer to us than Norway. 
 

Gimme a jack knifed semi with 50/50 and that can buckle PAC flow enough

[Solution Man]

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

I said about a week ago that if there is to be any ATL blocking it helps if it’s NAO because we need the road blocked closer to us than Norway. 
 

Gimme a jack knifed semi with 50/50 and that can buckle PAC flow enough

@H2Obringing it

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, 6z AIGFS has essentially the same threat as the Gfs, just a bit more "realistic"?

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@H2Obringing it

Yep, best way to extinguish a torch is throw some H2O on it.   

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.

Near perfect placement on that high. Look at that CAD signature.