Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[guinness77]

48 minutes ago, Nibor said:

All I got for that is….wow 

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, MonumentalNole said:

60 mile wide path*

No, 30 mile wide path of Cat 4/5 winds right now; 60 miles wide is hurricane force, but the EF3 (or even EF4) "tornado" winds are only ~15 miles out from the center.  

[ATDoel]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What is the physical basis for a hurricane wind of 190 mph being significantly less destructive than a tornado wind of 190 mph?

Highly variable wind direction.  Wind in a tornado rapidly changes direction and there's also a significant vertical component.  In a hurricane it's all horizontal which slowly changes direction.  Another factor is the debris.  Watch videos of the strongest tropical cyclones and you'll see the occasional debris fly by.  Compare that to a tornado where there's almost nothing but debris.  I rather take 150 mph wind to my face than a 150 mph 2x4, but maybe that's just me lol.

[MANDA]

There looks to be a mesovortex rotating around inside the eye on visible loop as it makes landfall.  Have to wonder if like in Andrew that will produce some extreme local wind gusts as Melissa comes ashore.

We should have a landfall statement from TPC incoming at any time now.

 

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html

[WEATHER53]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Frictional effects with land especially with such slow movement. In FL we see the same thing with the eye being pulled into the coast near Ft Myers vs Tampa like with Ian and Charley. I think with this angle of approach the effect is to try to keep it offshore? 

Looking close as the eye reaches shore, don’t see an East component anymore as it does the typical  Jamaica thing of trying to stay alive and wobbling nw to keep eye over water. A decided ne move over Jam. Is not occurring 

[SnoSki14]

Again the rain will be the story. Core of strongest winds will impact a small area. 

[canderson]

Re: population - this will be helpful for those asking about centers

https://x.com/robertdobalina7/status/1983160386326331427?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw

Edit. No idea how to embed the garbage that is Twitter posts now sorry  

[ATDoel]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Finally get to talk in more of my area of expertise, Hurricanes.  This is Astonishing.  ASTONISHING!  It stayed AT Category 5 Level for Days, and Now, after sitting at 902-906mb for a day, STRENGTHENS to 892!?  Not far from Godly Wilma?? 

And I don't think people understand this - YES, there have been 19, now 20, Category 5 Landfalls.  

 

BUT

 

No Storm, Not Camile, Not the Labor Day of 1932, Not Allen, Not Andrew, Not Michael - Has ever OFFICIALLY Recoded Category 5 Sustained Winds in a Landfall Before.  So TECHNICALLY, There has NEVER BEEN a Category 5 Landfall.  THIS may be it.  

 

The Record btw for Landfalling Pressure - 892.  1932 Labor Day, which Also was 185mph as this is.  

If a bear craps in the woods but no one is there, does it smell?  If a hurricane has 160 mph winds at landfall but no one measured it directly from the ground, was it a cat 5?

[WolfStock1]

6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

No Storm, Not Camile, Not the Labor Day of 1932, Not Allen, Not Andrew, Not Michael - Has ever OFFICIALLY Recoded Category 5 Sustained Winds in a Landfall Before.  So TECHNICALLY, There has NEVER BEEN a Category 5 Landfall.  THIS may be it.  

 

 

Labor Day was Cat 5 when it made landfall.   And it was 1935 not 1932.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Re: population - this will be helpful for those asking about centers

https://x.com/robertdobalina7/status/1983160386326331427?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw

Edit. No idea how to embed the garbage that is Twitter posts now sorry  

Here it is embedded (replace X with Twitter):

 

[NVAwx]

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

[eyewall]

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

[RU848789]

Landfall...

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE 
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do 
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will 
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. 
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these 
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the 
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you 
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where 
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in 
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a 
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate 
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

[WolfStock1]

17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Straight line winds.

 

OK then follow-up - why would non-straight-line winds be more destructive than straight-line?   Same force isn't it?

Perhaps it's that tornadoes' winds tend to swirl upward, and thus tend to lift more debris, than hurricane winds?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Labor Day was Cat 5 when it made landfall.   And it was 1935 not 1932.

I wonder how many of these old storms would measure today with the modern equipment, hurricane hunters, etc taking measurements which were impossible to do then.  

[NVAwx]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Again the rain will be the story. Core of strongest winds will impact a small area. 

Saint Elizabeth Parish has a population of 151,000.

[bobbutts]

2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Labor Day was Cat 5 when it made landfall.   And it was 1935 not 1932.

I mean you don't have to go back that far.  

Quote

Dorian reached Category 5 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 910 mb  (26.87 inHg) while making landfall in Elbow Cay, Bahamas.

 

[dan11295]

Unless Melissa really starting moving NE soon Montego Bay is going to get the eyewall.

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I wonder how many of these old storms would measure today with the modern equipment, hurricane hunters, etc taking measurements which were impossible to do then.  

Not many places having equipment able to survive and report winds like this.  One would need a setup like MWN.

[Normandy Ho]

12 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Highly variable wind direction.  Wind in a tornado rapidly changes direction and there's also a significant vertical component.  In a hurricane it's all horizontal which slowly changes direction.  Another factor is the debris.  Watch videos of the strongest tropical cyclones and you'll see the occasional debris fly by.  Compare that to a tornado where there's almost nothing but debris.  I rather take 150 mph wind to my face than a 150 mph 2x4, but maybe that's just me lol.

I wouldn’t say it’s all horizontal with canes, but the scale of the circulation is such that any vertical component wouldn’t be strong enough to suck you upwards.  But yea in general you are correct.  I do think hurricanes and tornadoes are more similar than one would think (which is why they look like each other on radar, size of the circulation Being the major difference) 

[hawkeye_wx]

So the NHC is going to call it 892 mb at landfall?  I'm very skeptical.  I understand the 892 mb from recon is their final real data before landfall, but the satellite presentation was clearly better a couple hours ago when recon got that measurement.

[WxWatcher007]

20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Without looking at anything other than possible landfall location, somewhere between Black River and Savanna la Mar would be my hypothetical chase zone with White House (just inland) as the target/staging area.

 

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an  
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

Would've been right on. Truly unbelievable to witness a landfall at the intensity and pressure...and to know that Wilma was 10mb deeper. Insane. 

[BRSno]

Hoping the hills hold strong and massive landslides aren't a huge issue. She's a beast.

[TheSnowman]

8 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Labor Day was Cat 5 when it made landfall.   And it was 1935 not 1932.

Yes, I'm tying a million things and have 50 tabs open, sorry.  But Was there an Official Measurement?  I know they got one for Pressure, but not for the Wind.  It's said to have been 185, Just like Melissa.  

[MonumentalNole]

18 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Finally get to talk in more of my area of expertise, Hurricanes.  This is Astonishing.  ASTONISHING!  It stayed AT Category 5 Level for Days, and Now, after sitting at 902-906mb for a day, STRENGTHENS to 892!?  Not far from Godly Wilma?? 

And I don't think people understand this - YES, there have been 19, now 20, Category 5 Landfalls.  

 

BUT

 

No Storm, Not Camille, Not the Labor Day of 1935, Not Allen, Not Andrew, Not Michael - Has ever OFFICIALLY Recoded Category 5 Sustained Winds in a Landfall Before.  So TECHNICALLY, There has NEVER BEEN a Category 5 Landfall.  THIS may be it.  

 

The Record btw for Landfalling Pressure - 892.  1935 Labor Day, which Also was 185mph as this is.  

This is simply not true.  Michael was strengthening right up until landfall and got to cat 5 as it was making landfall (160mph).  Andrew in 1992 did the same.  

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Unless Melissa really starting moving NE soon Montego Bay is going to get the eyewall.

Pretty sure not 100 the Reuters cam on youtube is Montego bay, if you or anyone are interested.

 

[WolfStock1]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Again the rain will be the story. Core of strongest winds will impact a small area. 

 

Perhaps, but in both case total destruction generally only happens in a small area; in the case of winds it's around the eye; in the case of rainfall it's low-lying areas - along rivers and such.   River damage is only a couple hundred yards wide typically though; this eye is 20 miles wide.    A house that's not along a creek or river will see no damage from rainfall but tons of damage from wind.

Reality will be both of course.

Bad hurricane flooding typically comes from storm surge.   Helene was an exception last year of course - but that's mostly because the watershed areas are quite large for the rivers that did the big damage.    E.g. the watershed for the French Broad in NC is about 10,000 sq miles.   In Jamaica the watershed for say the Black River is about 100 sq miles, so even twice the rainfall as Helene would result in only 1/50 the flow.   It's one of the advantages of being an island - it'll drain better.    

Not saying there won't be some catastrophic flooding - the will be, but I think wind will probably cause more overall damage.

[WolfStock1]

9 minutes ago, MonumentalNole said:

This is simply not true.  Michael was strengthening right up until landfall and got to cat 5 as it was making landfall (160mph).  Andrew in 1992 did the same.  

Yeah there have actually been over a dozen Cat 5 landfalls.   So - asserted stat is just wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes#Landfall

[SnowGoose69]

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

[gallopinggertie]

9 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Perhaps, but in both case total destruction generally only happens in a small area; in the case of winds it's around the eye; in the case of rainfall it's low-lying areas - along rivers and such.   River damage is only a couple hundred yards wide typically though; this eye is 20 miles wide.    A house that's not along a creek or river will see no damage from rainfall but tons of damage from wind.

Reality will be both of course.

Bad hurricane flooding typically comes from storm surge.   Helene was an exception last year of course - but that's mostly because the watershed areas are quite large for the rivers that did the big damage.    E.g. the watershed for the French Broad in NC is about 10,000 sq miles.   In Jamaica the watershed for say the Black River is about 100 sq miles, so even twice the rainfall as Helene would result in only 1/50 the flow.   It's one of the advantages of being an island - it'll drain better.    

Not saying there won't be some catastrophic flooding - the will be, but I think wind will probably cause more overall damage.

Not sure about this. In the geology video I linked to, the geologist actually compares Jamaica during Melissa to the Blue Ridge Mountains in Helene…and he says that this situation is actually worse. Jamaica’s river valleys are more prone to landslides because the rock is actively being uplifted by a fault, making the rocky slopes steeper and more fragile/prone to crumbling. The rock itself collapses - versus in the Blue Ridge, the slides are soil and debris, the underlying rock itself doesn’t slide away. Also he says that the rivers in Jamaica are really large in terms of flow, despite not being very long.