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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

NYC...........lolz, Its going to be -30°F when i get up saturday morning.

I’m driving up to Presque Isle Sunday. Will ride from there Monday and Tuesday the. I go to Caribou for more riding and some snowmobile association meetings. Looking forward to it. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had an 11.3" event in December and the 15.1" was sandwiched between 6.2" and 3.7". lol

Didn’t the 30 all come last week? Ski areas where hurting up until Last week from what I understand 

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

I’m driving up to Presque Isle Sunday. Will ride from there Monday and Tuesday the. I go to Caribou for more riding and some snowmobile association meetings. Looking forward to it. 

Enjoy it, Have you rode up there before? I remember i think this is going to be your first time? Conditions should be mint there, I'm leaving Thurs for Eustis, Probably will head to Jackman that day, Large group riding Friday so we will probably head to Rangeley for that which is a shorter trip.

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ski areas where hurting up until Last week from what I understand 

Sure...we've been riding a 0-2" pack most of the month. We've had some smaller events sprinkled in. The big December event was wiped out about a week later from the Grinch drencher.

01/01 48.7  34.0 0.01   21  0.0  0
01/02 44.6  29.9 0.00    9  0.0  0
01/03 34.5  27.2 0.19    4  0.0  0
01/04 43.1  34.0 0.40    6  0.0  0
01/05 39.6  31.7 0.16   12  0.0  0
01/06 32.6  31.4 0.28    5  2.9  3
01/07 35.3  24.1 0.00   21  0.0  2
01/08 31.0  15.9 0.00   21  0.0  1
01/09 34.1  15.0 0.00   14  0.0  1
01/10 32.9  15.5 0.00   22  0.0  1
01/11 26.9   9.9 0.00    6  0.0  1
01/12 32.5  22.0 0.56    7  1.7  2
01/13 37.9  30.1 0.77   22  0.0  2
01/14 31.1  25.9 0.01   19  0.1  1
01/15 33.1  24.5    T   19    T  1
01/16 29.5  25.0 0.09   18  0.9  2
01/17 41.5  25.5    T   20    T  2
01/18 43.3  32.1 0.00   18  0.0  1
01/19 36.4  30.4 0.34   17  3.1  4
01/20 31.0  27.4 0.24   16  3.1  7
01/21 28.3  17.9 0.00   16  0.0  7
01/22 28.9  12.6 0.17    7  1.9  9
01/23 31.3  27.0 1.13   19 13.2 21
01/24 37.2  24.0    T   19    T 20
01/25 31.7  25.4 0.58   11  3.7 22
01/26 38.9  26.1 0.69   24    T 22
01/27 35.8  17.6 0.00   14  0.0 18
01/28 43.2  22.7    T   16    T 17
01/29 36.3  21.7 0.00    5  0.0 15
                           30.6

 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Enjoy it, Have you rode up there before? I remember i think this is going to be your first time? Conditions should be mint there, I'm leaving Thurs for Eustis, Probably will head to Jackman that day, Large group riding Friday so we will probably head to Rangeley for that which is a shorter trip.

I’ve only been to Millinocket to ride. I’m looking forward to it. 

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's still early, but I'll take the under on 16F.

 

 

GFS MOS which skews heavily towards climo has 8...of course we don't know yet where the axis of coldest 850s goes but that would verify as a 2-3 in the end probably as is

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

NH is like NYC back in 2016 torched winter….one big storm in a sea of warmth 

a 7 incher, a 15 incher and then a 3.5 incher.  I know its hard for you...Oh and the 5-6 incher (11 for Brian) a few weeks earlier.  Not a great year, but it looks and feels like mid winter here.  And will for a while.

Don't cry for me Argentina.

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3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Temperatures are easier to model at longer lead times than snowfall.

Sorry, meant 0" of snow (as in the Euro map recently posted at 240 hrs).  Maps of the GFS showing 20-30" of snow were weenied immensely last week, if I'm not mistaken.  Both are probably wrong, that was more of my point...

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

GFS MOS which skews heavily towards climo has 8...of course we don't know yet where the axis of coldest 850s goes but that would verify as a 2-3 in the end probably as is

Ya I’m not sure people understand that climo is weighted in so heavily with mos at week long lead times . If the airmass stays the same MOS will keep dropping

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Basically on the forum there’s NNE that hasn’t had a stellar winter, but many are halfway to average with two months to go…and sitting with 12-18” on the ground currently.

On the flip side there are a good deal of posters where winter has been more of an abstract concept than a real entity this season.

And it’s stark, the gradient has been very real and very sharp. It’s leading to two very different frames of mind when analyzing data, statements, or sentiment. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Basically on the forum there’s NNE that hasn’t had a stellar winter, but many are halfway to average with two months to go…and sitting with 12-18” on the ground currently.

On the flip side there are a good deal of posters where winter has been more of an abstract concept than a real entity this season.

And it’s stark, the gradient has been very real and very sharp. It’s leading to two very different frames of mind when analyzing data, statements, or sentiment. 

I'm surprised at the number of people giving up and selling (ie "not invested").  Canada continues to look cold the next 5-6 weeks.  Threading the needle has moved from a sewing needle to a knitting needle.  Sure, it's gonna be AN at times with the SE ridge, but, at the same time, there could easily be a couple of moderate to strong storms that develop between the cold air to our north, the ridge to the south, and the +3 to +5C SST's in the Atlantic near us.  That ridge isn't going to be maxing at all times throughout Feb, and the despite the some of the maps shown recently, the ensembles show the southeast and the mid-atlantic warming the most, not us.

Given our luck, it could all go to shit, but, if you want to see a little more snow this season south of the pike, there's definitely some hope.  Can't call the rat just yet...

Screenshot 2023-01-29 at 9.03.19 PM.png

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure seems over to me, but apparently rev disagrees.

I get playing the hot hand, and going with the trend, but when the entire month of February is in front of us and models suck 48 hours out, I don't know how anyone can declare winter dead or alive

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13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I get playing the hot hand, and going with the trend, but when the entire month of February is in front of us and models suck 48 hours out, I don't know how anyone can declare winter dead or alive

There will be more snow for everyone in SNE. 

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1 hour ago, TalcottWx said:

I get playing the hot hand, and going with the trend, but when the entire month of February is in front of us and models suck 48 hours out, I don't know how anyone can declare winter dead or alive

That statement would have applied a month ago, too, just substituting January for February, after a crummy December.  We all know now how January has worked out. 

Two months doesn't make a winter, but it's a pretty good indication of where we're going for the remainder.  Trends are hard to reverse, especially ones of this length.

 

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