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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models don't have any "climo" built in..........

I remember seeing euro ensemble snowfall projection maps posted by a person in the mid-atlantic forum last year. These were from wxbell.  Scrolling through the time stamps, snowfall kept increasing even though no snowfall was forecast for my area (central NJ).  I always thought it was because the model was considering climo.  

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17 minutes ago, wkd said:

I remember seeing euro ensemble snowfall projection maps posted by a person in the mid-atlantic forum last year. These were from wxbell.  Scrolling through the time stamps, snowfall kept increasing even though no snowfall was forecast for my area (central NJ).  I always thought it was because the model was considering climo.  

How would you know if no snowfall was forecasted by the ensembles without looking at all 51 members? Ensemble snowfall is an average of those 51 members.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How would you know if no snowfall was forecasted by the ensembles without looking at all 51 members? Ensemble snowfall is an average of those 51 members.

Good point.  I'll need to check the map and see if it was really based on the ensembles.  Maybe it was something put together inhouse by WeatherBell.  It's a probability map of total snowfall if that makes a difference.

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23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Could kids have played little league this winter. I think in S SNE they could have kept leagues going 

I was at Andover High School yesterday for a basketball game. On the baseball field there was a mom and her 2 young children (6-9 years old?)....the kids were getting swings in...

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You guys had a very good 2 week period that was workable because you were at peak climo , You will definitely get more snow but my money is that was your peak pack 

IF they get another decent period before mid-March, there's a decent chance they surpass the peak pack. They aren't going to melt a lot unless we either get 55F cutter or another 80F February torch....the former is precarious in CAD-land up there and the latter is unlikely unless we build this SE ridge into Canada.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

IF they get another decent period before mid-March, there's a decent chance they surpass the peak pack. They aren't going to melt a lot unless we either get 55F cutter or another 80F February torch....the former is precarious in CAD-land up there and the latter is unlikely unless we build this SE ridge into Canada.

Yes, and I do think we haven't experienced our deepest pack yet.  I understand the pessimism from many; it is well-deserved, but that isn't an awful pattern for up here, though it pretty much ends winter in the Mid Atlantic although they could always get a late storm or two that melts fast.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing screams snowstorms and cold like this look later in Feb lol

yJCJGlJ.jpg

That looks like someone rip-n'-read the (MJO + La Nina climo)/ 2 = another 2017 80F February anomaly.

Unfortunately...the idea has merit.  

But, like Will's product then demos, there are conflicting signals - not to mention that product rendition above.  Which I don't really have much faith in the weeklies out ECM but that's another story. 

I personally don't know but would still warn people ...the look above has precedence spanning the last 10 years of Februaries - or hybrid versions of that.  I've mentioned this in the past...  

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the return rate on nearly wire-to-wire winter seasons is just about non-existent, at least at this latitude.

Other than at Fort Kent, where we had 3 wire-to-wires in 9 full winters, I can recall only 2, lifetime - 1960-61 in NNJ and 2007-08 here in the foothills.  (1947-48 probably qualifies but I was too young to understand.)  1975-76 only misses because March had snow 1" BN.

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I don't think any operational run can be trusted ...even to standard error, for anything beyond the cold incursion scenario.  I find it difficult to believe - for example - the GFS will succeed in having 0 order pattern markers - meaning no pattern period, on earth?  It's selling high velocity chaos, which is almost impossible of the geometric sphere to do that without organization of some form or the other emerging.    P.o.s. time with guidance and the others are not much better with wild continuity changes in their own rights.  

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Hoping for a final ode to the 80s in the next few weeks with a Feb 87 redux mixed in. 

The board would sure be entertaining

2/9-10/87 was a whopper on the cape. Some spots had over 30 inches of mostly grease…temps near freezing for most of the storm but it flash-froze near the end with temps dropping into teens. 

I think Scooter’s hood had around 6” but once you got west of 128 it was mostly 1-3”…yeah the forum would be in epic melt mode  

 

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