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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You hope that the chaotic nature of these patters means to forego the op runs and roll with ensembles. So living and dying by the op runs is a good way to stroke out. 

I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now.

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I love how at the end of today's GEFS, the blues start to show up along the west coast...same thing all winter long, hopefully we score something the first 10 days of February. Because once the GEFS see those blues, there won't be any turning back, lol...

The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining.

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... mm, keep in mind also.. the end of the GEFs is what, D15 -ish...? 

I'm not sure what others have in mind, but how long for this world this pattern was supposed to be was suspect - that's not changed.  It wasn't going on interminably; there's valid speculation out there that this may not last through the middle Feb period and we'd break the other way.         

Not impossible that your seeing right through to the other side - so to speak.   Just keep that in mind.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now.

That's what kills me. Nothing seems to go right. I suppose when I look back, we got lucky on some events even in the last several seasons which were kind of meh as a whole. But still, at least in those deals...everyone for the most part got something. This is just Mark Bellhorn type striking out. Maybe we can get 2004 PS Bellhorn at some point.

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining.

EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet.

Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by.

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet.

 

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by.

Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier.  Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees.  lol. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier.  Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees.  lol. 

Dude…where have you been the last two months?

Any light oranges in the east and blues out west HAVE been curtains…for basically any location east of the Rockies :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dude…where have you been the last two months?

Any light oranges in the east and blues out west HAVE been curtains…for basically any location east of the Rockies :lol: 

Blues over the east didn't do much good either. :lol:

 

 

Dec9-26-2022composite.gif

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