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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dude…where have you been the last two months?

Any light oranges in the east and blues out west HAVE been curtains…for basically any location east of the Rockies :lol: 

But there are changes and differences being shown now, that weren’t present up to this point before…sometimes the colors can be a lil deceiving if that’s all you see…that was more my point. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still can't believe we got almost completely skunked on that pattern (save for the small 12/11 event)....but it does happen (similar pattern occurred in Dec '87 where we got mostly skunked)

And that’s the perfect example of….No guarantees at all as everybody knows(or should know).  

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still can't believe we got almost completely skunked on that pattern (save for the small 12/11 event)....but it does happen (similar pattern occurred in Dec '87 where we got mostly skunked)

I'm over it. If we rat, then just consider it more outstanding debt paid and await el nino.

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41 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The cold in the west is just relentless, pattern has been locked in for 60 days

image.png.658984e4ed9e48cfff302ff6fb212301.png

If you take it out another day or two would show that the cold air is pouring east. The only thing I will say about you is you tend to choose what you'd like to show. But then say that this is how it's going to be. Yes, it's been generally cold pattern out west warm pattern in the east, but this is just showing the cold air pouring into the east for next week

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21 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If you take it out another day or two would show that the cold air is pouring east. The only thing I will say about you is you tend to choose what you'd like to show. But then say that this is how it's going to be. Yes, it's been generally cold pattern out west warm pattern in the east, but this is just showing the cold air pouring into the east for next week

If you take it out another week, I'm sure it shows a blizzard.

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22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I'm at the point I don't want to look at any models.  If by some miracle we get something worthwhile, I'll enjoy it when and while it happens.

I hardly ever do unless I'm either blogging about the long range, or know that there is something viable and interesting. 

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29 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If you take it out another day or two would show that the cold air is pouring east. The only thing I will say about you is you tend to choose what you'd like to show. But then say that this is how it's going to be. Yes, it's been generally cold pattern out west warm pattern in the east, but this is just showing the cold air pouring into the east for next week

Let's be real here.  The 18z GFS, too,  shows yes, a couple of days of BN 2m temp anomalies, but then goes right back to well AN anomalies for rest of the run.  Those subzero temp runs of a few days ago are but a fantasy now.

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8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Let's be real here.  The 18z GFS, too,  shows yes, a couple of days of BN 2m temp anomalies, but then goes right back to well AN anomalies for rest of the run.  Those subzero temp runs of a few days ago are but a fantasy now.

Good. No interest in subzero with no snow. 

I'm ready for this to be over. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good. No interest in subzero with no snow. 

I'm ready for this to be over. 

Most people are. I think most have reached a point where they are immediately skeptical.

Nobody wants to see day 15 ensemble means at this point, or day 10 snowstorms. Not a single one has produced squat this year.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has to be the widest plot known to man. It's been heading for phase 8 since Thanksgiving and still hasn't made it. 

Who even knows how much impact it had on the pattern this winter. Yes it was in the warm phases this January, but the strength doesn’t scream warmest “January on record” which is what lots of locations r going to end up with. 
 

Even when we do achieve the holy grail cold phases some twitter account, the begins with Dr., will state that a whale farted in the pac so we won’t get a p8 response in this background state. 

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Who even knows how much impact it had on the pattern this winter. Yes it was in the warm phases this January, but the strength doesn’t scream warmest “January on record” which is what lots of locations r going to end up with. 
 

Even when we do achieve the holy grail cold phases some twitter account, the begins with Dr., will state that a whale farted in the pac so we won’t get a p8 response in this background state. 

Either that, or it will get there in April and culminate slate overcast of a week long wave of drizzle and suicide.

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There are some years in which the months of December through March are but a chapter out of ma nature's book of 101 ways to pork a winter enthusiast.....you can contort your body in any way you want, like a giant game of atmospheric twister, but at the end of the day, your honey hole always ends up facing north, and ma nature south.

Just the way it is-

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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

The cold in the west is just relentless, pattern has been locked in for 60 days

image.png.658984e4ed9e48cfff302ff6fb212301.png

People have been pressing for a good pattern.  It’s looked very good for cutters for a long time . We got some decent breaks in the last couple storms (before this piece of trash ) and I’ve been thankful for that . Just incredibly active and Mild with some N SNE folks being able to cash a little during peak climo . More cutters seem likely to me for SNE but I’m hoping it’s not back to rains to Maine and 850 lows thru Montreal after this garbage system 

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS with a definitive north trend last several runs into northern New England for the Feb 1-2 threat. 

57858D70-9734-4B4B-8EE4-2824553CE88A.png

the more things change.... just one of those winters, maybe we get lucky and pull out a HECS to just satisfy all, iirc, 92-93 wasn't a great winter but then we got March storm of the century, I could be wrong (Will what's your memory serve here), but then again I believe we did have cold around that season...at this point I'd be happy with just a monster, and it can stay normal or AN temps before and after, helps with the every increasing heating bills. Best shot looks early Feb then back to what we've been seeing this winter

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16 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

the more things change.... just one of those winters, maybe we get lucky and pull out a HECS to just satisfy all, iirc, 92-93 wasn't a great winter but then we got March storm of the century, I could be wrong (Will what's your memory serve here), but then again I believe we did have cold around that season...at this point I'd be happy with just a monster, and it can stay normal or AN temps before and after, helps with the every increasing heating bills. Best shot looks early Feb then back to what we've been seeing this winter

92-93 was awesome here 

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Right this moment a line of enhanced T-cells are about to traverse the neighborhood. That is the extent of Winter in Florida. High Temp was 84F.
It all boils down to perception and expectations. The 1-3, 5-8" SWFE once seemed realistic, now an HECS, BECS might be the only Saviour for the Coastal plain.
There's always next year...       

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