February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[SouthCoastMA]

Feb 3-5th is the window to watch in my view. 

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That spread behavior you described has been a sort of how the longer term results have played out.  So, trend awareness alone would naturally lend to that thinking... it's hard to knock persistence, particularly when it is persisting regardless of all super synoptic flavors.  It hasn't mattered what ENSO this, or AMO that, or PDOs  or Presidencies ...that's just what's happened. 

We know both existentially, and by the verified numbers ... cold tends to arrive more 'spiky' for briefer stays, returning to a more modest above normal base-state ( we're talking tendencies). That's kind of a crass quick and unpolished way to portray...  Still, being -4 or even -6 during 7 days of early February, some how some way ending up +2 on the month is a troll posting boon era.

However, there are reasons to go warmer, that are more physically connected to reality than the sniper fire that's sans substantive logic, by someone clearly without a sex partner or much of a life otherwise.

La Ninas have a correlation with warmer than normal springs - it may not be as differentiably identifiable last year and year before ... due to a separate phenomenon occurring that's masking it?  That's very complexly related to seasonal book-end blocking that's become more prevalent in autumns and springs over the last 10 years  - yuck. 

Other than the Xmas through mid January period, the hemisphere has been well coupled to the Nina.  I'm not sure how to reconcile the blocking stuff above, with the a La Nina that may or might not be well coupled as we head through February. 

But...lurking in the back of my mind is that I've seen it be between 75 and 80 F in February, 3 times over the last 7 or so years.   Though here have been some snow events in Marches over the last 10, these warm intrusions have begun taking place with more frequency. 

Some of these different trends are competing ...both within themselves due to so-so consistency, and against one another. 

Right now... CPC's analysist are indicating the MJO is constructively interfering with the La Nina, and that favors the warmer eastern N/A in "2 to 3 weeks" as they put it.  The numerical teleconnector projections ( I haven't seen last night's) have been consistently showing a shallow +PNA bounce between the 2nd and 7th... beyond which there is this settle back into a +AO/+NAO...neutral PNA that goes off the horizon of those progs. 

The trends/ n terms = warmer tint, then adding that... it doesn't want to end well. 

 

It’s been 80 degrees in feb(think it was ‘18?), and then not 24 Hrs later it snowed 4-5”, and then all hell broke loose in March.  Shit happens. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

A 1043 arctic high to my north is great...but not 75 miles to my north.

Funny since the Mid Atlantic forum has been talking about this for a week or more.  Looks like a lock for them.

Congrats to the Mid Atlantic while I sort out my 4.75" for the season with my therapist. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’m somewhat interested in the futility numbers in the upper mid Atlantic . I think Philly to NYC May get on the board the first week in February and I hope they do .

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

Funny since the Mid Atlantic forum has been talking about this for a week or more.  Looks like a lock for them.

Congrats to the Mid Atlantic while I sort out my 4.75" for the season with my therapist. 

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

If one is old enough (like me) one can dig thru memories.  From March 1956 thru February 1961 our NNJ place in the hills at 700' had 7 events dumping 18-24", the last one possibly more as the wind was screeching and the pack gained more than 2 feet.  Even in Fort Kent we never had that kind of big snow period.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If one is old enough (like me) one can dig thru memories.  From March 1956 thru February 1961 our NNJ place in the hills at 700' had 7 events dumping 18-24", the last one possibly more as the wind was screeching and the pack gained more than 2 feet.  Even in Fort Kent we never had that kind of big snow period.

I don’t really consider N NJ hills upper mid Atlantic but I wasn’t really clear , I’m talking the big cities , the CP, not NW interior BUT that is quite an impressive period none the less . That elevated area in NW NJ reminds me more of pocanos weather climo wise 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

First and foremost, you cherish every flake. There’s climo but you know you’re not entitled to reach it. 

Second, you embrace the emotional roller coaster.

They are a resilient bunch.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

First and foremost, you cherish every flake. There’s climo but you know you’re not entitled to reach it. 

Second, you embrace the emotional roller coaster.

They are a resilient bunch.

That was actually the sort of reply I was looking for . Kudos to them and I hope they can score 

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

Eh, speaking honestly I have nothing but amazing snow memories here. Granted I grew up through a very good era in Central NJ and I’ve worked since 09 due west of NYC. I don’t have SNE snow climo by any means but when it’s not a torch and storms take favorable tracks I normally do well before it moves into SNE / CNE, like 1/29/22 where I got 16 inches before it crushed you guys. I lived in north Central NJ for Boxing Day and cleaned up there, and there’s been quite a few big storms here and there that are satisfying to a starved weenie. It’s more the moderate events I’ll often miss out on or anything with a hard north south gradient. We’ve had some really fun years though and in full recognition of my otherwise not great snow climo I fully appreciate what I’ve gotten over the years. 

My wife and I are in the process of considering a move into either north NJ, southern HV, or western CT for various reasons. Remains to be seen if that happens and when, but I’ll take nothing but good memories with me (of course, a few very frustrating ones too). 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That was actually the sort of reply I was looking for . Kudos to them and I hope they can score 

I love those folks. There is a limit to the pain a region can take—some of them are openly wondering if it can snow there again. 

[Cold Miser]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

Right?
Unless you can afford to take trips to where the snow is.

[Cyclone-68]

Seems like an eternity ago (last summer) when some of us were wondering if it would even rain again. Nature is a fickle beast. 

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t really consider N NJ hills upper mid Atlantic but I wasn’t really clear , I’m talking the big cities , the CP, not NW interior BUT that is quite an impressive period none the less . That elevated area in NW NJ reminds me more of pocanos weather climo wise 

Fair enough. The long-term average for that part of Jersey, north Morris and south Passaic/Sussex Counties, is about 40" but the period 1956 (when my quantifiable snowstorm memory begins) through 1971 (when I moved 10 miles SE and 500' lower) had a 55-60" average, with both 60-61 and 66-67 cracking the 100" barrier.

[mahk_webstah]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

When I lived in Philly, I totally got absorbed in the storms that we got...and there were some good winters!  But to scratch the itch, I would frequently go to Quebec City in early February, some I recommend to any snow weenie.  You can fly or drive, it is like being in an old European city.  The food is great, it is all walkable and charming, the have a fantastic winter carnival, and the US dollar does pretty well up there.  And the snow...wow!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Right?
Unless you can afford to take trips to where the snow is.

Not having kids helps immensely with costs , that and renting a house (from a friend) where the monthly payments are small . As opposed to a 2-4K mortgage or 1500-2400 monthly rental expense . 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You just need to get up north 

Tomorrow bro. 

[Cold Miser]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Tomorrow bro. 

Enjoy. 

This will definitely give you a brief, and awesome fix away from the winter woe's we are facing here.  

[WinterWolf]

14” and still coming down. Gonna be great. 

[jbenedet]

53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not having kids helps immensely with costs , that and renting a house (from a friend) where the monthly payments are small . As opposed to a 2-4K mortgage or 1500-2400 monthly rental expense . 

Renting is under-rated around here, if you're smart.

Property taxes + maintenance costs can easily surpass rent, with the right setup. That's not a loss in equity. And invest your money elsewhere. 

Also there's a lot of dumb landlords with much more money than sense. Get into it without knowing basic finance.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

14” and still coming down. Gonna be great. 

You are gonna have a hell of week man . enjoy !

[CoastalWx]

I may go full tilt if the GFS op happens. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may go full tilt if the GFS op happens. 

[ORH_wxman]

That is a ridiculous cold shot on the GFS....hopefully we have bare ground for it.

[ORH_wxman]

When was the last time we saw -40C 850 temps make it into New England? Jan 2004?

The Feb 2016 cold shot was actually a bit more low-level and 850 temps were "merely" in the -33C to -35C range.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When was the last time we saw -40C 850 temps make it into New England? Jan 2004?

The Feb 2016 cold shot was actually a bit more low-level and 850 temps were "merely" in the -33C to -35C range.

I think Jan 2004 was near -40 at 850. 

 

[wx2fish]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is a ridiculous cold shot on the GFS....hopefully we have bare ground for it.

Great delivery too. Below 0 highs into MA haha

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That would be so fitting. Rains to maines all winter and then congrats myrtle beach 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That would be so fitting. Rains to maines all winter and then congrats myrtle beach 

Yeah but the pond skating will be epic. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's what we used to call a "Montreal Express"  ... it's a particularly nasty delivery because it's so direct.  There's a little down slope, but other than that - which is overwhelmed by that magnitude of cold anyway... - the delivery avoids the subtle modulation of the continent and/or Lakes from deliveries that arrive first west and then come east.   There's not a lot of time or means to moderate the cold plume - it's like hello 60 North!

00z ICONoclastic model had that at the end of its run, but backed off considerably on the 12z.   The 06z GFS had it but not as arresting as this 12z version. 

GGEM has the Feb first week storm ... and really just offers and entirely different landscape in that D8 -10 range.  

Not sure about the Euro ... 

All and all, support is technically not so great? but, we are heading into this pattern that's been on the table since the late Hadean Epoch ( it seems...) which can offer either a GGEM or a GFS extreme...  Probably - we hope - something in the middle.