Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can't recall seeing 18z 2m temps modeled that low here before. Hope it moderates a lot. Oh it will - we both know that... I've seen these molecular slowing air masses countless times at that range and it ends up ... 70 ... 80% of the magnitude or less worst case, if not half. You know, it's not just the cold waves. Storms too - there's not a lot of real sciency value in the following statement, ...other than perhaps some predictable model error ( maybe), but ...I've come to understand that you take whatever is in a model beyond ~ D5 and lop amplitude off of it. In fact, it's almost like 50% required D10s. .25% required, D5s ... sort of a diminishing returns ratio/ wrt time like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: When was the last time we saw -40C 850 temps make it into New England? Jan 2004? The Feb 2016 cold shot was actually a bit more low-level and 850 temps were "merely" in the -33C to -35C range. We set some daily records in 16 for 850s. Let's do Jan 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: We all realize it will most likely materialize around about April 1st... and last most of the month Delayed but not denied 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We set some daily records in 16 for 850s. Let's do Jan 04 Yeah I know...but it was still interesting that we had colder 850s in some previous cold shots but didn't quite get as cold in the lower levels as 2016...the core of that cold was centered around 925 I think....I remember we were tracking the top of Stratton and they got down to like -35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A bunch of orchards around here got bad damage from that cold shot. PArticularly the peach trees. Yup I remember that happened all over the region. There were no rhody blooms or forsythias either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I may go full tilt if the GFS op happens. That is normally exactly where you want the GFS from 120-190 most years...given the tendency for the SER we can probably be sure that ends up way too suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We had solid snow cover, here’s a pic from that morning. We had 2 snow events of 3-6” that week. Yea there's that record I referred to. With no balloon sounding now we will never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We set some daily records in 16 for 850s. Let's do Jan 04 If we’re going to do cold, let’s do it big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup I remember that happened all over the region. There were no rhody blooms or forsythias either My rhodies and forsythia bloom every year. The peaches took a hit though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs suppresses everything then rips a low through NNE . Literally can’t win. CMC same kind of idea Watch. This is gonna happen. Completely limp over here. FN anti-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: My rhodies and forsythia bloom every year. The peaches took a hit though. Your climate is different than SNE and you get that kind of cold fairly often . We do not so the flora takes a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 That extended GFS was really plummeting the AO... Even throws a -NAO bone in the form of a retrograde... I like that for the panache of it. Not huge gradient, while a suppressed storm track, are two factors collocated in time that you'll find not uncommon around the times of bigger events of lore. What I don't like about it ? the fact that it's beyond 300 hours - ... I may also have a problem with being 'checked out' too but would likely be willing to negotiate if presented by the right sales pitch lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your climate is different than SNE and you get that kind of cold fairly often . We do not so the flora takes a hit If we have the same cultivars it doesn't matter. But it's possible the forsythia are hardier here. The rhodies are a bit protected on the east side too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I know...but it was still interesting that we had colder 850s in some previous cold shots but didn't quite get as cold in the lower levels as 2016...the core of that cold was centered around 925 I think....I remember we were tracking the top of Stratton and they got down to like -35F I think Feb 16 is ALBs all time record 850 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I think Feb 16 is ALBs all time record 850 low What is CHH or GYX? Pretty sure to the east of the mountains we've gotten colder than -30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: What is CHH or GYX? Pretty sure to the east of the mountains we've gotten colder than -30 GYX CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 That Vday cold shot in 2016 was a week out modeled as a nice snow event followed by cold. Friday night and Saturday we had snow showers and my daughter and I went to Logan to leave for Nicaragua as I was part of a medical delegation. It was maybe 20 as we left mid day. Finally arriving in Nicaragua I was refreshing my phone a zillion times because I knew the cold was special. I checked with my wife who stayed home and all was well although the dog spent a minimal amount of time outside-just for the purpose of “doing her business “. I was thrilled to have those temperatures and not have to endure them-it was in the mid 70s at 2AM where I was. I returned home a week later to showery wx and 55 degrees. A few days later we had just about the best severe I’ve seen since living here-occurring around 3AM and waking up the whole house. Strangely enough the dog took it in stride. We really miss her! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That Vday cold shot in 2016 was a week out modeled as a nice snow event followed by cold. Friday night and Saturday we had snow showers and my daughter and I went to Logan to leave for Nicaragua as I was part of a medical delegation. It was maybe 20 as we left mid day. Finally arriving in Nicaragua I was refreshing my phone a zillion times because I knew the cold was special. I checked with my wife who stayed home and all was well although the dog spent a minimal amount of time outside-just for the purpose of “doing her business “. I was thrilled to have those temperatures and not have to endure them-it was in the mid 70s at 2AM where I was. I returned home a week later to showery wx and 55 degrees. A few days later we had just about the best severe I’ve seen since living here-occurring around 3AM and waking up the whole house. Strangely enough the dog took it in stride. We really miss her! Winter was effectively over that year after that cold shot. Was crazy here from 0 degrees to raining in 24 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 man... I'd be lying if I said wasn't becoming discouraged by this. This signal is very real but ... it just seems nothing is trending into it - GGEM did ... I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: man... I'd be lying if I said wasn't becoming discouraged by this. This signal is very real but ... it just seems nothing is trending into it - GGEM did ... I guess Think we are in a boy who cried wolf situation at the point. Everyone is already expecting everything to trend terribly. If anyone says anything that sounds remotely positive, it’s assumed it will go to crap eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We suppress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We suppress. Cold dry and frozen mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 looks like the Euro's trying to finagle a S/streamer maybe but yeah ... this N/stream elephant ass routine can go to another planet if it wants to - ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: looks like the Euro's trying to finagle a S/streamer maybe but yeah ... this N/stream elephant ass routine can go to another planet if it wants to - ugh Euro might get home with that 2/4-5 shortwave. I’d still watch 2/1 a bit though. There’s been hints for that one. Don’t think it would be a huge event but could produce overrunning snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro might get home with that 2/4-5 shortwave. I’d still watch 2/1 a bit though. There’s been hints for that one. Don’t think it would be a huge event but could produce overrunning snows. I don't know if there's any continuity and it's not an aver to any potential but the follow-up wave ejecting wave through the west has promise too - it's got an aft ridge for a change, and the elephant's stampeded off the maps by then... ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro might get home with that 2/4-5 shortwave. I’d still watch 2/1 a bit though. There’s been hints for that one. Don’t think it would be a huge event but could produce overrunning snows. Blizzard on the Euro. First 2 weeks of Feb usually have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Euro delivers end of the run. 46 year anniversary special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 huh, ...that's the same 4/5th wave the GGEM lifted up, too. Two models latching onto a signal in the D8+ range in 2023 ? that's like a dimmest kid in class winning the chess tournament 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro might get home with that 2/4-5 shortwave. I’d still watch 2/1 a bit though. There’s been hints for that one. Don’t think it would be a huge event but could produce overrunning snows. this is a nice look with the strong southern stream shortwave and confluence in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just 10 more days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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