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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Based on history with guidance handling these kind of short duration cold bombs ... from 'over active' N/stream modeling forays  ... I'd like to see these kind of numbers < 72 hours lead before I buy fully into this.

I think 2016 is the last time one of these worked out and was only 90% of the original 'holy shitness' appeal.  Otherwise, these notoriously damp some.   No problem with the presumption of a chilly week in general and the 2-day stint of bottom-out readings, but how much -

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No changes, be patient, it’s coming! Plenty of cold to tap into! She’s not going to let us out! 

Some folks knew to get the FOC out of dodge in early December. There were signs and reasons to worry then. I still remember posting how I was worried . I finally somewhat bought into the calls of a big  , snowy December . But once that failed .. your gut tells you things wouldn’t work out. You simply cannot lose Dec and then Jan and now Feb 

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6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

So we jump on 10 day forecasts when they forecast 0, and dismiss the ones that had 30” of snow?

LOL… let’s call it a rat when it’s done. I remain optimistic even with a SE ridge. There will be snow in Feb and March for all of New England, including S and SE areas.

Late Feb to mid March could deliver. With changing wavelengths and still cold around it could happen. 

Most of Feb looks toast though given weeklies. 

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8 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

So we jump on 10 day forecasts when they forecast 0, and dismiss the ones that had 30” of snow?

LOL… let’s call it a rat when it’s done. I remain optimistic even with a SE ridge. There will be snow in Feb and March for all of New England, including S and SE areas.

Temperatures are easier to model at longer lead times than snowfall.

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