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drstuess

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About drstuess

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  1. So said chaotic and non-linear system is certain enough for you to say it isnt sensitive to CO2, but not enough for the best modeled and proposed answer to say it is? Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  2. drstuess

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    Not sure you want to say "cognitive dissonance" or stick to your numbers. Just like the AGW discussion itself, when you ignore the bluster at both extremes, there certainly is very intriguing and pragmatic discussion regarding the details and science/engineering. Carbon emmisions are dependent on economic growth, climate, energy mix, and regional policy and market structure making signals noisy and solutions ever evolving. The actual carbon emmisions for 2018 (latest full year data) were down 4.5% year over year, with preliminary data from h1 2019 down even more significantly. There was a notable plateau and period of growing pains in the mid 20-teens, however that seems to have been broken. Nevertheless, Germany has fallen behind 2030 goals. Germany and the plateau is certianly something worth studying ( effects of nuclear decommissioning, effective pricing signals and technology mixtures, etc), but does not show the futility of renewables (see overall carbon) and does not strictly translate to different regions and markets. I am sure we in the US might face our own growing pains, however they will most likely be different and to this point they have not been too bad. Our experience in the us has been different till this point. Additionally, renewables are actually driving prices down in markets Yes, in areas with less favorable renewable resources we will need to have the storage and transmission discussion, but at much higher penetrations than most of the US has currently. Hopefully these discussions can be done in good faith and grounded in reality. As I said, the markets in the US have been pretty effective at taking coals plants off line to this point. That is enough typing on my phone for a year and certianly this thread so I will respectfully bow out, but I think there are a lot more pragmatic and smart people out there in the world that you aren't giving enough credit. Here are some fairly high level sources. 2018 iea global summary https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions/ Fairly nuetral discussion of German emmisions with data up to 2018 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-climate-targets EIA US emissions overview https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37392 Wind ppa prices https://emp.lbl.gov/wind-power-purchase-agreement-ppa-prices Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  3. drstuess

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    I work in/very closely with that industry and that is not really close to the current state of the industry. Sure PTC, etc can factor in how projects in emerging areas like off-shore pencil, however if you look at the actual current PPA prices I would hope you would evolve your perspective. Hint, onshore wind is relatively steady around 20 $/MWh with combined cycle gas close to twice that and coal >3X. The notion that these projects are some financial burden (even without including externalities) is blind to the industry and the future. Yes, the non-dispatchable nature of renewables factors in and some of the higher penetration middle and end game discussions are open, but considering what's currently going on pricing wise and the emergence of lithium ion, renewables are and should be in the mix. If you want to talk misinvestment, maybe look at all the policy efforts in place to prop up coal plants that have no future. Coal plants that are already built are being priced out of relevance... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  4. drstuess

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    What are these yuge malinvestments with huge societal costs? People out in industry aren't running around with their heads cut off...
  5. drstuess

    Attribution Report for the July 2019 Heat in Europe

    So I see we are now hanging our hat on "July was possibly not the hottest month on record" Such good faith, honest discussion. Also, all that damn UHI in Alaska, Greenland amd Antartica, someone should tell them about urban farming and green roofs. https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2019 Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  6. drstuess

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Constant lightning in Narragansett for past 45 minutes. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  7. drstuess

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    That long thunder roll was this guy I think... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  8. drstuess

    NNE Winter Thread

    Heard MRG had 4" in last hour at the base. Puking. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  9. drstuess

    NNE Winter Thread

    Stowe has always been the more upscale and expensive option, Vail did nothing really to change that. As PF has said, they ( a long with most of the industry) has trended to lower price but higher volumes of season passes and really tries to push people in that direction. Sugarbush IMO seemed to have put some pressure on the other resorts in the area in this regard before Vail purchased Stowe, but the Vail had been moving in that direction anyway. They make less money on the people who ski a lot, but more on the people that only ski a few weekends/and travel out west and who are now tempted towards passes. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  10. drstuess

    NNE Winter Thread

    Driving back from skiing... 24 and snowing pretty hard in central VT has given way to 44 and partly cloudy in Manchester, NH. The transition is crazy. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  11. drstuess

    Super, Duper SWFE

    Adding to the car stoke Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  12. drstuess

    NNE Winter Thread

    Hard to gauge, but maybe 18" in MRV. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  13. drstuess

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    Guessing Killington will be more than fine. Mt Ellen will be packed as well; no hiding this weekend. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  14. drstuess

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    Are they usually pretty good at clearing 89 and 100? Hoping to drive up Sunday am from Lebanon area? Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
  15. drstuess

    March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc

    Just slant sticked my way to 2.5 inches of cake batter in the front yard in Narragansett. Long way to go to reel in the 10-18 forecasted. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
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