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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

May I ask a question. What is causing Ian to get so close to landfall yet something is causing it to say nope, head north. Now whether or not it makes landfall or not most models show similar presentations of a stall and then almost due north projection. Is it that trough and based on the strength/position is what will determine how close it gets or is able to head east into Florida earlier ? 

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

Local surge watch was initialized at 5-8 and then updated to 7-10.  With the GFS and Euro scenarios it would be higher in some locations.

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The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

sat_mesoe1_nores_color_20220926_1846.jpg

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Seems there's almost always some sort of steering breakdown/stall/sharp turn involved right around landfall that complicates the forecast. Harvey, Irma, Florence, Dorian, Sally...now Ian. Storms that just truck right on across the coast like Andrew or Charley seem to be the rare exception (Micheal being the only such case in recent years*, perhaps not coincidentally it's also the only one in their league regarding LF intensity).

*Well, actually Laura and Ida too...A.K.A. the shrimp folk storms. ;)

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

sat_mesoe1_nores_color_20220926_1846.jpg

And just like that, a couple of hot towers firing near the eye

3767f2f2-48cf-462a-be52-0e94e9b97905.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Stupid question here…. Does the shape of Cuba’s coastline help to tighten up Ian’s core in this situation? The outer bands of convection seems to line up very well with the southern coastline currently as they rotate counter clockwise parallel to the shore.

It does but would be best (for the US) if it stayed over the island longer.  In the current trajectory and speed it will be clear of land effects in short order.

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Someone in NC or VA is going to get 8" or more of rain out of this

qpf_acc.us_ma (2).png

Latest outlook from WPC has all the foothills and eastern Mountains in the solid 5 inch contour. With the piedmont areas being in the 3 to 4 inch contours.  Would not be shocked if we are bumped from 5 inch contour to the 7 inch contour for the foothills and eastern mountains. And 4 to 5 for the piedmont. As they have been upping the totals by about a inch each cycle.

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35 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The banding structure is incredible with Ian this afternoon. 

While the storm has ingested some dry air, I would guess that the bursts near the core have at least dropped the central pressure a few millibars since the last fix. 

I would expect the storm to resume a rather quick pace of intensification overnight as it nears the Cuban coast. 

 

sat_mesoe1_nores_color_20220926_1846.jpg


Looks extremely similar to Hurricane Lili in 2002 as she crossed over Cuba. Almost 20 years ago to the day.

lili-cuba.gif

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Quick Question- Here's a weather belief that I hold and I want to know if it's true, false, or unresolved.

 

For Gulf storms that landfall on the northern Gulf Coast or potentially traversing along the Florida West Coast...

 

Does the land interaction cause or increase the risk that the storm turns to the right just before landfall (or, in the case of a storm like this, can it potentially cause it to "turn right" into a landfall)?   

I recall several strong hurricanes appearing to turn or jog to the right along the northern Gulf coast. 

Also, I'm talking generally...which may or may not be specific to this storm.  

Lastly, if this were the case, would this or would this not be factored in to the track forecast?  

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