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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhaps the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.

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1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

Looking back on the last 3 NHC wind and position estimate forecasts, track looks decent. A hair to the right of track. But noticeably weaker. 11 PM had the slower development. 5 AM was aggressive with winds ramping up all day and now they scaled back some at 11 AM (but a sharp spike up to 140 briefly). Perhals the early AM models were a tad too strong with this system early causing the west track. We'll see.

Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once....

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....

This thing hasn’t been,  nor is it currently impressive.  It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together.  
 

“Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao.  I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking.

Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area.

It’s a crusher.  Watching the loop, it literally crawls up to the bay and sits over us.  Getting ready to eat a wrap and some onion rings from my freezer (use it or lose it), just lost my appetite.

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26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

From what I can gather, the main sources of track error are:

Stronger hurricane likely gets a bit further south and west. 

The northeast trough. Does it dig far enough southwest to drag Ian northward or does Ian miss and meander in the GOM for a few days and weaken under shear?

Yea. Along these lines, you can clearly see based on steering flow that there is a few scenarios where this could really stall near TB, but that isn't being well advertised by the guidance. The right hook into TB would lead to a faster rate of weakening due to landfall, and being less vertically stacked while the low to mid level flow becomes increasingly ambiguous. This could allow Ian to meander near the west coast of Fla as a TS, which would result in a severe rainfall threat. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This thing hasn’t been,  nor is it currently impressive.  It’s been forecast to do a lot of things…but for various reasons it can’t seem to put it all together.  
 

“Off to the races” has been expressed at least a few dozen times lol…and then he goes in reverse lmao.  I guess we’ll see? But it would not surprise me in the least if he does not attain major Hurricane status. 

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.

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