Hurricane Ian

[Whineminster]

On 10/11/2022 at 4:52 PM, AChilders said:

I spoke with he and Jeff Evans yesterday at a property in Fort Myers Beach. 

How was that, sad? Place is just gone.

[AChilders]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

How was that, sad? Place is just gone.

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, AChilders said:

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

Hopefully many of the homes that weren’t outright devastated can be salvaged. Many homes that have mold or other interior damage or shifted off the foundation will have to be leveled unfortunately. And yes, until there’s a good way to clear the debris (and there will be way more than people can imagine) from these towns and the roads/bridges are back open, there won’t be much improvement. 

[jbenedet]

Preliminary property damage estimates for Ian so far range from $42 billion to as much as $258 billion, with some landing in the middle.

 

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/10/how-costs-disasters-hurricane-ian-are-calculated-and-why-it-takes-so-long-add-them/378465/

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

After Allison 2001, FEMA was in my neighborhood (came to my house) and others, following the freshwater floods, and FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance offered some people money in lieu of further insurance, that is, they would not re-insure people who flooded many times before.  They cleared entire subdivisions near the bayous, and I think they did the same in 2017.  Saltwater flooding, if the risk is that high, FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance should buy the property and leave it undeveloped.  Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize building in disaster prone areas.

[AChilders]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

After Allison 2001, FEMA was in my neighborhood (came to my house) and others, following the freshwater floods, and FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance offered some people money in lieu of further insurance, that is, they would not re-insure people who flooded many times before.  They cleared entire subdivisions near the bayous, and I think they did the same in 2017.  Saltwater flooding, if the risk is that high, FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance should buy the property and leave it undeveloped.  Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize building in disaster prone areas.

Its the price you pay to live in paradise, people will not give up ocean front views (or gulf front), even if they do, real estate vultures will come in and buy it all. 

[gymengineer]

This is an incredible watch by the man whose probe captured the infamous storm surge video. The interview with the couple whose house was being destroyed in the video while they were still inside is jaw dropping.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

This is an incredible watch by the man whose probe captured the infamous storm surge video. The interview with the couple whose house was being destroyed in the video while they were still inside is jaw dropping.

 

That’s the most heavy story I’ve ever heard from a weather event

[WxWatcher007]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Upgraded to cat 5 before landfall, wow 

[Scorpion]

937 mb is not Cat 5

[bdgwx]

140 kts winds are cat 5.

Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Scorpion said:

937 mb is not Cat 5

 937 mb is high for a cat 5. This must be because background pressures were higher than usual increasing the pressure gradient. There was a 1030 mb Canadian high that had come down into the MW. I bet that had something to do with it. Had that instead been, say, 1020 mb or lower, I bet it wouldn't have made cat 5.

[Normandy Ho]

Agree with the upgrade. The data is the data and 140 kts is 140 kts. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 937 mb is high for a cat 5. This must be because background pressures were higher than usual increasing the pressure gradient. There was a 1030 mb Canadian high that had come down into the MW. I bet that had something to do with it. Had that instead been, say, 1020 mb or lower, I bet it wouldn't have made cat 5.

The dry polar high to the NW and shear from the W that would have weakened Ian if it has headed for TPA or points North instead provided a high pressure gradient, and the dry air was wrapping in too late to weaken the core before landfall, and the W/SW upper flow to the NW aided outflow.  The turn inland maximized Ian's potential.  I remember the expectation that it would weaken heading N into the Gulf.

[Brian5671]

22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The dry polar high to the NW and shear from the W that would have weakened Ian if it has headed for TPA or points North instead provided a high pressure gradient, and the dry air was wrapping in too late to weaken the core before landfall, and the W/SW upper flow to the NW aided outflow.  The turn inland maximized Ian's potential.  I remember the expectation that it would weaken heading N into the Gulf.

Interesting too that like Charley it came in much further south than forecast a few days out....all the media attention was on Tampa and instead it comes in 150 miles further S

[Floydbuster]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Interesting too that like Charley it came in much further south than forecast a few days out....all the media attention was on Tampa and instead it comes in 150 miles further S

It's amazing how much Ian was like Charley. The track, the exact landfall point, the exact landfall intensity. The only difference was time of year. Charley was a fast, speedy, tiny little furious early/mid-August hurricane. When Ian struck it was nearly October. 

[Amped]

On 4/3/2023 at 11:08 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Upgraded to cat 5 before landfall, wow 

Before landfall but not at landfall.  Kind of makes sense since it was moving so slow and the strongest winds were on the back side of the storm. The core would have interacted with land for about 6 hrs  before the strongest winds got onshore.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

On 4/3/2023 at 9:42 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Thanks for posting this. I keep forgetting to go look for it. Have been busy dealing with the ongoing aftermath of Ian, and will be cleaning up tree and other debris for a long, long time on our 5 acres of prime swampland, over 30 trees came down and smashed lots of stuff.

As I am reading through this document I noticed they use Max Olson's videos as a reference, on page 50 of the PDF under Figure 10-Deployed USGS Water Level Sensor, and photos from his videos are on page 51 under Figure 11. Josh Morgerman's images are on page 61 Figure 21, and data on page 7. I have seen a bit of criticism thrown at the chasers on this and the previous forum over the past decade and a half. So I would like to thank Max and Josh very much, and all the other responsible chasers who provide visual images and other information for our government and the general public to learn from.

I also want to thank the owners and moderators of this forum for providing a centralized place to discuss the weather and share information. I have found it to be invaluable and necessarily for obtaining the earliest information to start planning for a potential storm, never mind my obsession and love hate relationship with the weather on this planet. So fascinating to watch and so miserable to endure. 

 

[joxey]

The efforts of storm chasers often provide critical real-time data and visuals that help in understanding and predicting storm behaviors, which can be crucial for safety measures and future research. Autodesk online licensing options. Their work, along with forums that centralize discussions and information sharing, plays a significant role in community preparedness and response during such natural events.