Hurricane Ian

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Maybe someone can help validate this claim but I seen various sources say "at least 10,000 missing". That number, along with the death toll, still does not factor in Cuba from my understanding. Also, the Ian wikipedia page has been updated and shows "10,000 missing". Just curious if the number being reported is true.

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Maybe someone can help validate this claim but I seen various sources say "at least 10,000 missing". That number, along with the death toll, still does not factor in Cuba from my understanding. Also, the Ian wikipedia page has been updated and shows "10,000 missing". Just curious if the number being reported is true.

I think it's horsecrap. The same thing with Hurricane Maria in 2017. The National Hurricane Center's official death toll was much lower than the allegedly high death toll some in the media stated which has still never been substantiated. 

 

[DeltaPilot]

Anyone have any good links to damage assessment, videos etc for Ian around Ft Meyers?

[twister4999]

Lazy post here, but does anyone have the gif link to the NHC’s projected path through the entirety? It’s probably already been posted. TIA

[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, twister4999 said:

Lazy post here, but does anyone have the gif link to the NHC’s projected path through the entirety? It’s probably already been posted. TIA

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

[sojitodd]

On 10/3/2022 at 9:06 PM, WxSynopsisDavid said:

At least 1 death in NC was attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning because someone started up their generator inside their house and went to sleep shortly after. 

My brother's English teacher in High School died in a similar way-power was out so she was out in the car getting warm-in the garage with the doors closed. Smh. Blizzard of 78 in Ohio

Per Cnn the death toll is 120 in Florida and 5 in N. Carolina. I wonder what the causes of death were?  And the number missing is always super high for a while in disasters like these. That '10,000 missing'' will come down pretty dramatically after a while longer. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 hours ago, sojitodd said:

My brother's English teacher in High School died in a similar way-power was out so she was out in the car getting warm-in the garage with the doors closed. Smh. Blizzard of 78 in Ohio

Per Cnn the death toll is 120 in Florida and 5 in N. Carolina. I wonder what the causes of death were?  And the number missing is always super high for a while in disasters like these. That '10,000 missing'' will come down pretty dramatically after a while longer. 

From the Washington Post yesterday - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-florida-victims/

 

Quote

Ian is probably Florida’s deadliest hurricane since 1935. Most victims drowned.

By Danielle Paquette and Meryl Kornfield

 

October 5, 2022 at 4:10 p.m. EDT

 

/snip/

Yet Ian already is shaping up to be the deadliest storm to pound Florida since 1935. State authorities have documented 72 deaths thus far — slightly under Hurricane Irma’s toll in 2017, according to the National Hurricane Center. County sheriffs have reported dozens more, pushing the total to at least 103. That makes Ian more fatal than Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

 

Ian’s storm surge has claimed the most lives, according to the Florida Medical Examiners Commission, which is tallying direct and indirect deaths. Slightly more than half of Ian’s victims drowned, the latest data shows, underscoring what experts call a frequently overlooked reality: Water usually kills more people than wind.

 

Storm surge as high as 18 feet blasted through homes, trapping some people inside while sweeping others into brownish rivers. One woman was found tangled below her house in wires. Many of those who drowned were elderly.

 

“I don’t want to scare people, but they need to understand: The leading cause of death is going to be drowning,” said W. Craig Fugate, former head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “Storm surge doesn’t sound inherently deadly unless you understand it.”

 

[nwohweather]

14 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

From the Washington Post yesterday - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-florida-victims/

 

 

This is why guys like Jim Cantore are so important. Too many folks are moving to these hurricane states and do not come close to understanding the violence of major hurricane. I’ve been through enough tornadoes and derechos to know you do not mess with 100+ mph wind

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 hours ago, nwohweather said:

This is why guys like Jim Cantore are so important. Too many folks are moving to these hurricane states and do not come close to understanding the violence of major hurricane. I’ve been through enough tornadoes and derechos to know you do not mess with 100+ mph wind

With Ian's Cat 4, 150+ mph sustained winds at landfall, that would be in the range of a high-end EF2 tornado - but over a much larger area. And just based on some of the drone pics, that's the kind of damage that was observed where landfall occurred and where dwellings and other types of buildings weren't hardened for it.  Add to that the surge, and you get a double-whammy.

[Wmsptwx]

They interviewed sanibel mayor and she was pretty unsure of how many were missing and seemed like it was going to take a good while to know numbers.

[Amped]

 

[AChilders]

17 hours ago, Amped said:

 

I spoke with he and Jeff Evans yesterday at a property in Fort Myers Beach. 

[Whineminster]

On 10/11/2022 at 4:52 PM, AChilders said:

I spoke with he and Jeff Evans yesterday at a property in Fort Myers Beach. 

How was that, sad? Place is just gone.

[AChilders]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

How was that, sad? Place is just gone.

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, AChilders said:

It honestly gets a little worse every day right now, traffic is obscene getting on and off Estero Island.  Typically takes 3 hours to go 15 miles from Fort Myers city to FMB and 2 hours to get back off the island, debris piles are high and until they are somehow able to open the east end bridge towards Bonita Beach, it will stay that way.  I was there again yesterday. 

Hopefully many of the homes that weren’t outright devastated can be salvaged. Many homes that have mold or other interior damage or shifted off the foundation will have to be leveled unfortunately. And yes, until there’s a good way to clear the debris (and there will be way more than people can imagine) from these towns and the roads/bridges are back open, there won’t be much improvement. 

[jbenedet]

Preliminary property damage estimates for Ian so far range from $42 billion to as much as $258 billion, with some landing in the middle.

 

https://www.route-fifty.com/management/2022/10/how-costs-disasters-hurricane-ian-are-calculated-and-why-it-takes-so-long-add-them/378465/

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

After Allison 2001, FEMA was in my neighborhood (came to my house) and others, following the freshwater floods, and FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance offered some people money in lieu of further insurance, that is, they would not re-insure people who flooded many times before.  They cleared entire subdivisions near the bayous, and I think they did the same in 2017.  Saltwater flooding, if the risk is that high, FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance should buy the property and leave it undeveloped.  Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize building in disaster prone areas.

[AChilders]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

After Allison 2001, FEMA was in my neighborhood (came to my house) and others, following the freshwater floods, and FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance offered some people money in lieu of further insurance, that is, they would not re-insure people who flooded many times before.  They cleared entire subdivisions near the bayous, and I think they did the same in 2017.  Saltwater flooding, if the risk is that high, FEMA and Federal Flood Insurance should buy the property and leave it undeveloped.  Taxpayers shouldn't subsidize building in disaster prone areas.

Its the price you pay to live in paradise, people will not give up ocean front views (or gulf front), even if they do, real estate vultures will come in and buy it all. 

[gymengineer]

This is an incredible watch by the man whose probe captured the infamous storm surge video. The interview with the couple whose house was being destroyed in the video while they were still inside is jaw dropping.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

This is an incredible watch by the man whose probe captured the infamous storm surge video. The interview with the couple whose house was being destroyed in the video while they were still inside is jaw dropping.

 

That’s the most heavy story I’ve ever heard from a weather event

[WxWatcher007]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Upgraded to cat 5 before landfall, wow 

[Scorpion]

937 mb is not Cat 5

[bdgwx]

140 kts winds are cat 5.

Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Scorpion said:

937 mb is not Cat 5

 937 mb is high for a cat 5. This must be because background pressures were higher than usual increasing the pressure gradient. There was a 1030 mb Canadian high that had come down into the MW. I bet that had something to do with it. Had that instead been, say, 1020 mb or lower, I bet it wouldn't have made cat 5.

[Normandy]

Agree with the upgrade. The data is the data and 140 kts is 140 kts. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 937 mb is high for a cat 5. This must be because background pressures were higher than usual increasing the pressure gradient. There was a 1030 mb Canadian high that had come down into the MW. I bet that had something to do with it. Had that instead been, say, 1020 mb or lower, I bet it wouldn't have made cat 5.

The dry polar high to the NW and shear from the W that would have weakened Ian if it has headed for TPA or points North instead provided a high pressure gradient, and the dry air was wrapping in too late to weaken the core before landfall, and the W/SW upper flow to the NW aided outflow.  The turn inland maximized Ian's potential.  I remember the expectation that it would weaken heading N into the Gulf.

[Brian5671]

22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The dry polar high to the NW and shear from the W that would have weakened Ian if it has headed for TPA or points North instead provided a high pressure gradient, and the dry air was wrapping in too late to weaken the core before landfall, and the W/SW upper flow to the NW aided outflow.  The turn inland maximized Ian's potential.  I remember the expectation that it would weaken heading N into the Gulf.

Interesting too that like Charley it came in much further south than forecast a few days out....all the media attention was on Tampa and instead it comes in 150 miles further S

[Floydbuster]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Interesting too that like Charley it came in much further south than forecast a few days out....all the media attention was on Tampa and instead it comes in 150 miles further S

It's amazing how much Ian was like Charley. The track, the exact landfall point, the exact landfall intensity. The only difference was time of year. Charley was a fast, speedy, tiny little furious early/mid-August hurricane. When Ian struck it was nearly October. 

[Amped]

On 4/3/2023 at 11:08 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Upgraded to cat 5 before landfall, wow 

Before landfall but not at landfall.  Kind of makes sense since it was moving so slow and the strongest winds were on the back side of the storm. The core would have interacted with land for about 6 hrs  before the strongest winds got onshore.