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gymengineer

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  1. gymengineer

    Grading Winter 2018-2019

    Of course, adjust your grading if any late March/April events come about. I figured this is a good week to get this thread started. Thanks for starting this thread in the past seasons, @WxWatcher007 2018-2019: I can’t grade it lower than a B. (I tried given how unhappy the mood was generally in here.) The January event was wrapped in positive outcomes during the lead-up and actual event, making it better for me than, say, 2/12-13/14. Saturday morning (1/12/19), just hours before the onset, was great as the model consensus finally resembled the NAM-esque QPF’s, and we got the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for 5-10”. I was already very pleased that the warning verified when I woke up Sunday morning. Not banking on the second half, I went outside to enjoy what had fallen. And then came the best conditions since 2016 for the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Another big plus for me was how the November event maxed out and way exceeded expectations for road accumulations. Add in the late February event that had no problems coating main roads in daytime, and I know I’ll always look back fondly on this season. Below are my winter ratings for the past 25 seasons. Priority is always given to impact. Snow days refers to the number of days Montgomery County Public Schools closed. 09/10= A+ 78.5"; 1) 26.5" (2/5-6/10) 2) 21" (12/18-19/09) 3) 13.5" (2/9-10/10); 9 snow days; this winter clearly stands out as the top I've ever experienced, and since it's a level superior to 95/96 and 02/03, I put those as A's. 95/96= A 65"; 1) 25" (1/6-8/96) 2) 8" (2/16/96) 3) 7-1/4" (2/2-3/96); 9 snow days 02/03= A 53"; 1) 21" (2/16-18/03) 2) 6.5" (2/6-7/03) 3) 6-1/4" (12/5/02); 10 snow days 13/14= A- 52.5"; 1) 15.5" (2/12-13/14) 2) 9" (3/16-17/14) 3) 6.5" (1/21/14); 10 snow days; only thing that knocked this down a notch to an A- for me vs. an A is that it didn't have that one 20"+ storm that closed schools for a week 14/15= B+ 32-1/4"; 1) 7-1/4" (2/21/15) 2) 7" (3/5/15) 3) 3-3/4" (1/6/15); 7 snow days; historic February cold 15/16= B+ 34-3/4"; 1) 29" (1/22-23/16) 2) 2-3/4" (2/14-15/16) 3) 2" (3/3-4"); 7 snow days; I had this season as a B originally but I knew it was likely the more the years go by, the more favorably I’ll look back at the 1/20-1/27 window. 92/93= B 25"; 1) 13.5" (3/13/93) 2) 3" (2/21/93) 3) 3" (2/26/93); 4 snow days 93/94= B 20.5"; 1) 5" (3/1-2/94) 2) 3" (1/20/94) 3) 3" (12/28/93); 11 snow (mostly ice) days (!) 18/19= B 25.7”; 1) 11.5” (1/12-13/19) 2) 4.8” (2/20/19) 3) 2” (11/15/18); 4 snow days; January event was spectacular and I had my best November event since 1995; 6th snowiest winter in 25 seasons 99/00= C+ 22"; 1) 9" (1/25/00) 2) 5.5" (1/21/00) 3) 4.5" (1/29/00); 4 snow days 98/99= C 21.5"; 1) 8.5" (3/9/99) 2) 4.5" (3/14-15/99) 3) 3-3/4" (1/8/99); 5 snow days 04/05= C 20"; tied 1) 4.5" (2/24/05 and 2/28/05) 3) 3-3/4" (1/22/05); 3 snow days 05/06= C 23"; 1) 14" (2/11-12/06) 2) 3-3/4" (12/5-6/05) 3) 2.5" (12/9/05); 2 snow days 06/07= C 14.5"; 1) 5" (2/25/07) 2) 3.5" sleet (2/13-14/07) 3) 1.5" LOL (1/21/07); 4 snow days; the 3-in-a-row snow days for the sleet storm as well as the very cold and active February lifted this winter up to a "C" despite the well-below average snow total 03/04= C- 19"; 1) 7.5" (12/5-6/03) 2) 6" (1/25-26/04) 3) 4" (12/14/03); 4 snow days (2 for ZR in February) + 3 for Hurricane Isabel 10/11= C- 15"; 1) 8.5" (1/26/11); 3 snow days in a row 94/95= D+ 12.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/3-4/95) 2) 4" (1/28/95); 1 snow day in March 17/18= D+ 11.3”; 1) 3.8” (3/21/18) 2) 3” (12/9/17); 5 closing days! This winter got a bump up to a D+ vs. a D because of the impact although the two closings in January were the wimpiest closings I can remember for ~1” across the county; first ever closing for blue-sky-winds with the March windstorm. 96/97= D 14.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/8/97) 00/01= D- 12-1/4"; 1) 3.5" (12/19/00) 07/08= D- 8-3/4"; 1) 4.5" (1/17/08); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have two 4"+ snows 08/09= D- 8.5"; 1) 6.5" (3/1-2/09); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have a 6"+ storm 12/13= D- 10"; 1) 4" (3/25/13 LOL) 16/17= D- 6.5”; 1) 4” (3/13-14/17); 1 snow day for the March snow/sleet event, which held a solid snow cover for four 12Z measurements 97/98= F 3" 01/02= F 2.5" 11/12= F 2"
  2. This is a simple thread. Please just post pictures of March snows in our subforum that had no trouble sticking to the road during daylight hours. My three contributions below are all cellphone pics, so they're pretty crappy in quality. But the point is that I had zero difficulty finding pics in my phone of March daytime snows sticking to roads. March 3, 2014 March 5, 2015 March 21, 2018
  3. Did anyone say any of that in this thread? Of course sun angle matters. Of course it takes more positive factors for snow to stick on roads in March. The point is that it’s not unusual or particularly difficult for snow to stick to roads during the daytime in March. It doesn’t even have to snow all that hard if it’s cold like on 3/2/14.
  4. gymengineer

    February Banter 2019

    My best friend’s mom passed away yesterday morning from cancer. The end was very rapid. I just had dinner with her (my best friend) and we cried and laughed and sat in silence....on repeat. I miss her mom. Cancer really sucks.
  5. gymengineer

    Mid Atlantic Snow Totals Winter 2018-19

    13th out of 30 seasons, based on a quick count. I may be off by one.
  6. gymengineer

    Mid Atlantic Snow Totals Winter 2018-19

    Someone pointed out this is already for DCA- if there’s not even a flurry for the rest of the season, it’s already DCA’s 7th highest seasonal snow total for the past 30 seasons. 7th out of 30! For IAD, it’s already the 9th highest seasonal total out of the last 30.
  7. How come people still can't tell what you're communicating by this kind of post? In the observation thread too....
  8. gymengineer

    2/19-20 Winter Storm Observations

    0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described.
  9. gymengineer

    February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

    Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map...
  10. gymengineer

    February Banter 2019

    A significant part of this subforum is well above season-to-date snow climo (IAD is 8" above, DCA is 5" above) while a significant part is below. That's not that common for our subforum and it's all because the DC metro area got that small-footprint 10" snowstorm in January. I don't care as much what the pattern shows moving forward as I just have this vague optimistic feeling we will see more snow, much like how I was pleasantly amused with how this past week turned out. I know for someone waiting for the big event, the perspective would be understandably different and the pattern hunt is more important.
  11. gymengineer

    January Banter 2019

    Remember the percent of seasonal snowfall average map from the end of last season when the DC area was literally the biggest screw zone for the entire east coast? DCA is 5” ahead of season-to-date climo and has a shot to surpass its total seasonal snow average on Friday, the first day of February. We’re in the inverse of last season.
  12. gymengineer

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter: 12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day 1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark 1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps 1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range 1/29/14: 0.5” overnight 2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages. 2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow 2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range 2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight 2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only 2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice. 4-7” MoCo range 3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range 3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm. 3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain Monthly totals: December- 3.5” January- 11” February- 20.25” March- 17.75” Total: 52.5”
  13. gymengineer

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    It can’t be a bad sign heading into an even better pattern that the two serviceable windows this season have so efficiently given our subforum two 10”+ snowstorms. Richmond wasn’t locked in for their 11” heading into the event either. These are some juiced up storms.
  14. gymengineer

    December Discobs Thread 2018

    There's something kind of fascinating about a Potomac River basin-wide flooding event in mid-December. Now moderate main-stem river flooding is forecast, which is a fitting way of breaking the all-time precip record. If next weekend's rainstorm verifies, then it's an even more fitting way of ending 2018.
  15. gymengineer

    December Banter 2018

    Thanks for asking. It goes without saying that I was occupied all summer and into early fall when I had resigned from my previous 15-year-long position without another job lined up. But, doing it that way still was the best for my former coworkers and school so they didn't have to replace me during the second month of the new school year. I am now the Head of Education of a company that creates distance learning and online courses for child care providers. It's a great fit for my skill set, and my 9-5 is much less stressful than before. Plus I got a salary boost and I'm applying my management skills as I run a department. How're you doing?
  16. gymengineer

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    This current burst of historic events--16"+ at DCA, 20"+ for the N and W suburbs--from 1996 onward has actually been spaced out across the months that cover meteorological winter. In my back yard, for example, here are all the 20"+ snowstorms from 1996 onward, slotted into a half-month window: Dec 16-31: 12/18-19/09 Jan 1-15: 1/6-8/96 Jan 16-31: 1/22-23/16 Feb 1-14: 2/5-6/10 Feb 15-28: 2/15-18/03 There's only *one* remaining half-month period of meteorological winter where DCA hasn't seen a 16"+ storm and I haven't seen a 20"+ storm- December 1-15. I'm definitely not saying it's going to happen this year. But of course I'd love to see that last window get filled in soon by a big one.
  17. gymengineer

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Have you seen Ian’s recent article about the decreasing averages but increase in huge events? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/29/snowfall-shows-sharp-long-term-decline-washington-region-some-trends-are-surprising/?utm_term=.7fba8f3745b5
  18. gymengineer

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)
  19. gymengineer

    November Discobs Thread

    Was the La Plata tornado in 2002 really the last fatal MD tornado?
  20. Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust.
  21. gymengineer

    Major Hurricane Michael

    And impact on the affected areas after or during an ERC depend on other factors too, such as what happens to the RMW, *where* the biggest population centers are in the storm’s path, and whether an expansion of the wind field actually makes things worse even if the max wind speed comes down. Maria is the ultimate example of how an ERC probably made things worse for the overall landfall. It was incomplete so the inner eyewall was still swinging around the periphery of the larger eye— and we have ground truth video from iCyclone of how crazy the conditions still were in areas impacted by the inner eyewall. Sure, max sustained wind speed dropped by 15 knots during the process, but the inner eyewall areas still got an upper Cat 4 hit, and the tripling of the eye diameter meant the most populated areas of the island got mauled by the dominant eyewall. An eyewall around a 9 n mi eye would not have crippled the entire island in the way that an eyewall around a 28 n mi eye did. We had discussions after Maria about the extreme total damage across a relatively small target—$90 billion is a crazy number for Puerto Rico plus the US Virgin Islands, but it makes sense when anyone loops the radar up to the last functioning image as the outer eyewall is about to consume the entire island. Gilbert ‘88 in Jamaica came up as another example of that type of bulldozing.
  22. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    41/g56 at KRIC is very impressive. Almost 600,000 power outages in NC now and more than 300,000 outages in VA.
  23. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yes, the winds over the Chesapeake Bay are being unanimously modeled as higher than over any coastline currently under a tropical storm warning. @WxWatcher007 thanks for bringing up the early Friday fun for parts of our subforum in the main thread. Too bad it got lost in the shuffle of bad posts. So many bad posts.
  24. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    I'm really curious what the storm surge numbers will end up being. First, I'm glad to see the NHC start to de-couple surge values from the SS scale (like in this document: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf). We know some specific locations such as New Bern and Wilmington set highest water levels. There are some hints now that some of the Atlantic beaches may have also seen very impressive surges. We'll see. If it ends up that Florence beat Fran in the surge department throughout much of the coastline, then the only thing that really could have been much more "historic" for the coastline is the wind. One aspect of the wind that was highly unusual for a storm this far north is how readily inland stations gusted to 70+ mph. That speaks how spread out the wind shield was. Kind of like how Irma taking the path it did (into Cuba and then the west coast of FL) weakened the storm significantly but exposed more of the FL peninsula to dirty-side hurricane force gusts than a just-west of Miami path would have.
  25. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    This will be one of the iconic images from the entire event:
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