gymengineer

Members
  • Content Count

    3,032
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by gymengineer

  1. Pouring snowflakes here! Magical outside right now in North Bethesda.
  2. You meant NAMasies for fantasies right? Even so, I think NAMasties captures the spirit of the model better.
  3. 10th highest water level in Annapolis today: https://mobile.twitter.com/rms5539/status/1183131064304308224
  4. So what exactly is causing the moderate coastal flooding tonight across the Bay on nearly calm winds? *Never mind, found the explanation in the AFD. The elevated water from Dorian has shifted north up the Bay. The Annapolis forecast is no joke.
  5. I’m following a curated meteorologist twitter list for Dorian. I’ve never seen meteorologists rage tweeting like right now.
  6. NHC had to drop the pressure from 964 to 958 based on the Frying Pan Shoals bouy data.
  7. It wasn’t as extreme as this situation, but Wilma did crawl across the Cozumel/Cancun corridor with hurricane gusts for ~24 hours.
  8. With the attic reports being just like with Katrina, the death toll news will be grim once the storm clears. This gut wrenching report is from Abaco only. Don’t click on the link if you don’t want to see bodies. https://mobile.twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1168641705089863680
  9. I think it's instructive to review the Graphics Archive for the 3-day graphics for Hurricanes Matthew and Irma: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_3W.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line_and_wind Several have pointed out already that Irma was modeled to be too far east even within the 3-day range as the advisory graphics show. Less has been said that Matthew was modeled to be quite a bit further east of FL than what verified within the 3-day range as well. There was one model, the UKMet, that led the way in showing Matthew as a scraper threat for FL and that same model led the way in showing Irma making landfall in Cuba. I am not implying at all that the UKMet will be right this time. I just wanted to point out significant and consequential track errors for two recent hurricanes.
  10. Of course, adjust your grading if any late March/April events come about. I figured this is a good week to get this thread started. Thanks for starting this thread in the past seasons, @WxWatcher007 2018-2019: I can’t grade it lower than a B. (I tried given how unhappy the mood was generally in here.) The January event was wrapped in positive outcomes during the lead-up and actual event, making it better for me than, say, 2/12-13/14. Saturday morning (1/12/19), just hours before the onset, was great as the model consensus finally resembled the NAM-esque QPF’s, and we got the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for 5-10”. I was already very pleased that the warning verified when I woke up Sunday morning. Not banking on the second half, I went outside to enjoy what had fallen. And then came the best conditions since 2016 for the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Another big plus for me was how the November event maxed out and way exceeded expectations for road accumulations. Add in the late February event that had no problems coating main roads in daytime, and I know I’ll always look back fondly on this season. Below are my winter ratings for the past 25 seasons. Priority is always given to impact. Snow days refers to the number of days Montgomery County Public Schools closed. 09/10= A+ 78.5"; 1) 26.5" (2/5-6/10) 2) 21" (12/18-19/09) 3) 13.5" (2/9-10/10); 9 snow days; this winter clearly stands out as the top I've ever experienced, and since it's a level superior to 95/96 and 02/03, I put those as A's. 95/96= A 65"; 1) 25" (1/6-8/96) 2) 8" (2/16/96) 3) 7-1/4" (2/2-3/96); 9 snow days 02/03= A 53"; 1) 21" (2/16-18/03) 2) 6.5" (2/6-7/03) 3) 6-1/4" (12/5/02); 10 snow days 13/14= A- 52.5"; 1) 15.5" (2/12-13/14) 2) 9" (3/16-17/14) 3) 6.5" (1/21/14); 10 snow days; only thing that knocked this down a notch to an A- for me vs. an A is that it didn't have that one 20"+ storm that closed schools for a week 14/15= B+ 32-1/4"; 1) 7-1/4" (2/21/15) 2) 7" (3/5/15) 3) 3-3/4" (1/6/15); 7 snow days; historic February cold 15/16= B+ 34-3/4"; 1) 29" (1/22-23/16) 2) 2-3/4" (2/14-15/16) 3) 2" (3/3-4"); 7 snow days; I had this season as a B originally but I knew it was likely the more the years go by, the more favorably I’ll look back at the 1/20-1/27 window. 92/93= B 25"; 1) 13.5" (3/13/93) 2) 3" (2/21/93) 3) 3" (2/26/93); 4 snow days 93/94= B 20.5"; 1) 5" (3/1-2/94) 2) 3" (1/20/94) 3) 3" (12/28/93); 11 snow (mostly ice) days (!) 18/19= B 25.7”; 1) 11.5” (1/12-13/19) 2) 4.8” (2/20/19) 3) 2” (11/15/18); 4 snow days; January event was spectacular and I had my best November event since 1995; 6th snowiest winter in 25 seasons 99/00= C+ 22"; 1) 9" (1/25/00) 2) 5.5" (1/21/00) 3) 4.5" (1/29/00); 4 snow days 98/99= C 21.5"; 1) 8.5" (3/9/99) 2) 4.5" (3/14-15/99) 3) 3-3/4" (1/8/99); 5 snow days 04/05= C 20"; tied 1) 4.5" (2/24/05 and 2/28/05) 3) 3-3/4" (1/22/05); 3 snow days 05/06= C 23"; 1) 14" (2/11-12/06) 2) 3-3/4" (12/5-6/05) 3) 2.5" (12/9/05); 2 snow days 06/07= C 14.5"; 1) 5" (2/25/07) 2) 3.5" sleet (2/13-14/07) 3) 1.5" LOL (1/21/07); 4 snow days; the 3-in-a-row snow days for the sleet storm as well as the very cold and active February lifted this winter up to a "C" despite the well-below average snow total 03/04= C- 19"; 1) 7.5" (12/5-6/03) 2) 6" (1/25-26/04) 3) 4" (12/14/03); 4 snow days (2 for ZR in February) + 3 for Hurricane Isabel 10/11= C- 15"; 1) 8.5" (1/26/11); 3 snow days in a row 94/95= D+ 12.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/3-4/95) 2) 4" (1/28/95); 1 snow day in March 17/18= D+ 11.3”; 1) 3.8” (3/21/18) 2) 3” (12/9/17); 5 closing days! This winter got a bump up to a D+ vs. a D because of the impact although the two closings in January were the wimpiest closings I can remember for ~1” across the county; first ever closing for blue-sky-winds with the March windstorm. 96/97= D 14.5"; 1) 6.5" (2/8/97) 00/01= D- 12-1/4"; 1) 3.5" (12/19/00) 07/08= D- 8-3/4"; 1) 4.5" (1/17/08); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have two 4"+ snows 08/09= D- 8.5"; 1) 6.5" (3/1-2/09); only thing saving this winter from an F is I did have a 6"+ storm 12/13= D- 10"; 1) 4" (3/25/13 LOL) 16/17= D- 6.5”; 1) 4” (3/13-14/17); 1 snow day for the March snow/sleet event, which held a solid snow cover for four 12Z measurements 97/98= F 3" 01/02= F 2.5" 11/12= F 2"
  11. Did anyone say any of that in this thread? Of course sun angle matters. Of course it takes more positive factors for snow to stick on roads in March. The point is that it’s not unusual or particularly difficult for snow to stick to roads during the daytime in March. It doesn’t even have to snow all that hard if it’s cold like on 3/2/14.
  12. This is a simple thread. Please just post pictures of March snows in our subforum that had no trouble sticking to the road during daylight hours. My three contributions below are all cellphone pics, so they're pretty crappy in quality. But the point is that I had zero difficulty finding pics in my phone of March daytime snows sticking to roads. March 3, 2014 March 5, 2015 March 21, 2018
  13. My best friend’s mom passed away yesterday morning from cancer. The end was very rapid. I just had dinner with her (my best friend) and we cried and laughed and sat in silence....on repeat. I miss her mom. Cancer really sucks.
  14. 13th out of 30 seasons, based on a quick count. I may be off by one.
  15. Someone pointed out this is already for DCA- if there’s not even a flurry for the rest of the season, it’s already DCA’s 7th highest seasonal snow total for the past 30 seasons. 7th out of 30! For IAD, it’s already the 9th highest seasonal total out of the last 30.
  16. How come people still can't tell what you're communicating by this kind of post? In the observation thread too....
  17. 0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described.
  18. Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map...
  19. A significant part of this subforum is well above season-to-date snow climo (IAD is 8" above, DCA is 5" above) while a significant part is below. That's not that common for our subforum and it's all because the DC metro area got that small-footprint 10" snowstorm in January. I don't care as much what the pattern shows moving forward as I just have this vague optimistic feeling we will see more snow, much like how I was pleasantly amused with how this past week turned out. I know for someone waiting for the big event, the perspective would be understandably different and the pattern hunt is more important.
  20. Remember the percent of seasonal snowfall average map from the end of last season when the DC area was literally the biggest screw zone for the entire east coast? DCA is 5” ahead of season-to-date climo and has a shot to surpass its total seasonal snow average on Friday, the first day of February. We’re in the inverse of last season.
  21. The 13/14 winter was just insane for the amount of events. Here's my event log from that winter: 12/8-9/13: 1.5” snow to accumulating sleet to freezing rain (>.1” glaze) 12/10/13: 2” slop that had trouble accumulating during the day 1/2-3/14: 4” overachiever, lasting past midnight. Street accumulation on Old Georgetown after dark 1/10/14: Ice on sidewalks from rain in above freezing air temps 1/21/14: 6.5” Biggest storm in 3 seasons—road accumulations even onto Rockville Pike. 5-8” MoCo range 1/29/14: 0.5” overnight 2/4-5/14: ~0.2” glaze of ice. Severe ice storm in Frederick through Carroll and northern Baltimore counties-- >40% power outages. 2/9/14: 0.5” Sunday snow 2/12-13/14: ~15.5” total—13” by 8 am, Rockville Pike completely snow covered at 6 am—drizzle/light rain lull until 3 pm. ULL dropped 2.5” very wet snow that stuck to streets again. 12-20” MoCo range 2/18/14: a bit less than 1” overnight 2/25/14: a bit more than 1” between 9 am and noon—grass and car and Harris Teeter sidewalk only 2/26/14: 2 ¼” between 5:15 am and around 10:30 am. 3/3/14: 5 ¼” after a changeover from rain and sleet by 5 am. Temps dropping through to the lower 20’s by dawn to the teens by noon. Road coverage complete all around my building and in parking lot across the street (plow couldn’t keep up with the snow). Heaviest/lowest visibility band was the last one that swept through between 12:10 pm and 1:00 pm. As temps plunged down into the single digits, any road not completely plowed turned into a sheet of solid ice. 4-7” MoCo range 3/16-17/14: 9”, less on roads. All roads covered overnight in heavy snow with plunging temps, down to low 20’s by dawn. 7-10” MoCo range 3/25/14: 2 ¾”, no road accumulations, but covered bbq patio paved area. Started around 8 am, ended around 7:30 pm. 3/30/14: ¾” surprise heavy snow dumping as fast as it melted to keep on some concrete surfaces. 4/15/14: T-0.1” end squall of sleet to snow after heavy rain Monthly totals: December- 3.5” January- 11” February- 20.25” March- 17.75” Total: 52.5”
  22. It can’t be a bad sign heading into an even better pattern that the two serviceable windows this season have so efficiently given our subforum two 10”+ snowstorms. Richmond wasn’t locked in for their 11” heading into the event either. These are some juiced up storms.
  23. There's something kind of fascinating about a Potomac River basin-wide flooding event in mid-December. Now moderate main-stem river flooding is forecast, which is a fitting way of breaking the all-time precip record. If next weekend's rainstorm verifies, then it's an even more fitting way of ending 2018.
  24. Thanks for asking. It goes without saying that I was occupied all summer and into early fall when I had resigned from my previous 15-year-long position without another job lined up. But, doing it that way still was the best for my former coworkers and school so they didn't have to replace me during the second month of the new school year. I am now the Head of Education of a company that creates distance learning and online courses for child care providers. It's a great fit for my skill set, and my 9-5 is much less stressful than before. Plus I got a salary boost and I'm applying my management skills as I run a department. How're you doing?
  25. This current burst of historic events--16"+ at DCA, 20"+ for the N and W suburbs--from 1996 onward has actually been spaced out across the months that cover meteorological winter. In my back yard, for example, here are all the 20"+ snowstorms from 1996 onward, slotted into a half-month window: Dec 16-31: 12/18-19/09 Jan 1-15: 1/6-8/96 Jan 16-31: 1/22-23/16 Feb 1-14: 2/5-6/10 Feb 15-28: 2/15-18/03 There's only *one* remaining half-month period of meteorological winter where DCA hasn't seen a 16"+ storm and I haven't seen a 20"+ storm- December 1-15. I'm definitely not saying it's going to happen this year. But of course I'd love to see that last window get filled in soon by a big one.