gymengineer
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Everything posted by gymengineer
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More DCA stuff- yesterday morning marked the most consecutive days of 1” snow cover since 1/16. 8 days consecutive beats 1/19.
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I am very glad that you are back; we've overlapped in years of posting. I stopped being active here after the 2020/2021 season. There were so many actual Winter Storm Warnings issued that far unperformed that season that I just didn't feel like following the weather anymore. But, I guess this season is pulling me back as well.
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If DCA manages 3” tomorrow, they’ll be past 50% of their seasonal climo. Then, they would need 13.4” the rest of the season to get to 150%- doable in one storm if this season ends up ultimately following analogs. Or, with just 2 moderate storms…
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Annapolis is forecast in the very short term to end up with higher water levels than Connie (1955) and Fran (1996). Isabel is first with the Chesapeake/Potomac Hurricane being second (1933), and this forecast for the upcoming high tide would be third. Cambridge, MD, is forecast in the very short term to end up with the second highest water level behind Isabel. This storm is still playing out in terms of effects throughout the region.
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Just my opinion- DCA at 52 mph is a pretty impressive SE wind considering Isabel’s peak gust wasn’t that much higher at 58 mph. (Irene and Sandy’s winds were in more common directions.) IAD actually slightly exceeded Isabel’s highest gust there. The sustained winds were of course more impressive in Isabel.
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DCA- 52 mph IAD- 49 mph BWI- 47 mph
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https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=axtv2 Alexandria flooding exceeding guidance for this high tide cycle.
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Driver rescued this morning clinging to a tree: https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/12/noreaster-bringing-rain-winds-chilly-temps-to-dc-area/
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I grew up in Potomac and vividly remember this event as well. The severe weather knocked out power in my neighborhood before the flip. The winds kept being gusty after the flip so it was a very wintry couple of hours. Most of it melted by morning.
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Preliminary recorded wind gust of 205 mph: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-10-31-hurricane-otis-extreme-wind-preliminary-report
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The 18Z GFS fantasy hurricane manages to outdo Gilbert for Jamaica, repeat a version of Flora for Cuba, and then Cleo for Miami all in one journey .
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The Lidia (10/10/23 landfall), Norma (10/21/23 landfall), Otis (10/25/23 landfall) sequence has got to be a record or tied a record for most hurricane landfalls in a single country in that short period of time, right? Let alone the more astonishing fact of a Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfall separated by only 15 days in a single country- I can’t imagine that that’s ever happened in recorded history.
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From npr today- Conditions are grim in the city. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/27/1208982615/acapulco-mexico-hurricane-otis
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Seriously, though, this is one of those instances where it feels like someone controls the weather, not predicts it. I mean that in the best way possible. Just wow.
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The Mid-Atlantic thread on this is moving quicker.
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I know people have pointed out issues with these gust products, but here are the "peak" panels from various 12Z model runs: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230923-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/maryland/gusts-mph/20230923-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230924-0300z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230924-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/can/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230923-2100z.html