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About gymengineer

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    North Bethesda, MD 20852
  1. School Closures in the DC Region

    I know this was in jest, but literally adding on more and more days at the end is no longer an option anymore until we get a new governor
  2. School Closures in the DC Region

    Yeah, I’ve noticed Boston area schools closing a lot more now. What’s especially surprising for today’s closing is that Montgomery County has now used up all its snow days. Only 2 now instead of the 4 or 5 days in the past...
  3. School Closures in the DC Region

    I can only speak to Montgomery County, but for us, closing for an inch almost never happened before this season. 2/7/07 was a closure for 1-1.5”. There have been plenty of examples of 2-hr delays for *more* than 1” of snow, like 1/24/13, 1/11/11 or 1/8/10.
  4. Public Service Announcement - Please Read

    I started at Eastern in February 2005...thought it was like heaven on Earth to have found a discussion board with other weather fanatics. I went through the transition to this site that we all did. I have written 2800-some posts since the board started. That’s about a tenth of the posts from our most prolific posters. I know what I can contribute to this board. I try to limit my posts to that niche. Before hitting “Submit Reply,” I double check that what I send will contribute/add some insight to the discussion. In the model discussion threads, I know that I won’t ever match the speed of those who pay for subscription services. So I stay out of the way and really appreciate the immediate analysis many members offer. I work with teenagers all day, and maybe that makes my patience for entitlement less than others on here. It’s just been annoying to see post after post by people who feel entitled to dump their misery everywhere... treating this online community like a personal playground to crap all over. Emotional posts don’t/have never contribute(d) anything in the main discussion threads. I don’t think the ones who do that realize how much it impedes the flow of the thread, and how defeating the experience of reading posts becomes for a lot of people.
  5. Jan 16/17 light snow event.

    As a life-long MoCo resident, I'd much rather see the precip map shaped like the 12k 0Z NAM than the other way around-- meaning the runs where the eastern part of the region had more precip. Get Germantown and Damascus to 3" and we'll be ok down here. It's much more precarious for us when eastern parts of the county are supposed to be getting the biggest amount, because that means we're on the far western fringe. That just doesn't work out great. It's always IMBY for outcomes.
  6. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    I agree too. That first December event was actually a moderate event for many locations-- IAD got 4"-- which is not a guarantee to have in the bank by 1/15 in any season. Since then, I've seen accumulating frozen precipitation every single week except for one. That's pretty active for these parts. Obviously none have been as big as the first snow event, but nothing's ruling out another moderate event or two by the end of the snow season.
  7. Jan 16/17 light snow event.

    Exactly. We're wanting the models to be accurate within 0.05" intervals if we're looking at 1" as a threshold. To me, that's a within-24-hours level of precision and or even less lead time.
  8. January Banter String

    That really was the oddest closing day I’ve ever seen. A forecast of 1-2”, verifying as an inch or less, closed every single school system. I’d think the school systems go back to 1-2” being a 2-hr delay.
  9. January Banter String

    It seems people have forgotten 13/14 and 14/15 when talking about blizzards or dustings. Aside from the 6”+ ones, we had multiple 3-5” events (1/3/14, 3/4/14, 2/17/15). We get the moderate events still— just not in clunker winters.
  10. Jan 16/17 light snow event.

    CMC, like the RGEM, is slower in onset. Snow doesn’t leave the metro areas until after 0Z Thursday!
  11. Jan 16/17 light snow event.

    If you toggle backward, you can see the NAM runs windshield-wipering between the runs.
  12. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Not as far south dig as the 18Z run that had an echo of the good Euro runs. But the trough is also quite a bit further west. New look.
  13. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    500 on the NAM is, uhm, not the same compared to the 18z.
  14. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    It may be worse now, but the Euro has had many cases of amplifying too far SW over the years. It wasn't alone, but I'm talking about notorious cases like 3/5/01. Locally, the one that sticks out and always makes me want to wait for other models to join was when we were at the 72-hr mark for March 20, 2016-- the 12Z Euro posted its sweetest run yet for our area of heavy snow (1"-type qpf) with falling temps. And of course, that amplifying too early/too far SW bug was the source of the NYC forecast debacle for 1/26/15 when OKX went hard with the Euro over the GFS, forecasting a range that included the single-storm record.
  15. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    2/96 had a 3/09-esque western cutoff. It was also the "original" 1/25/00- very similar lead-time bust with the late evening news broadcast being the first to talk about measurable snow hours before the event started.