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About gymengineer

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    North Bethesda, MD 20852

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  1. New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation. This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip.
  2. That poster was referring to Frances and Jeanne in 2004, and like only 2 miles apart in landfall location.
  3. Actually Delta has laid a pretty big footprint of recorded hurricane force gusts stretching from eastern TX through central LA. KBPT (Beaumont/Port Arthur) gusted above 80 mph as did KARA (Arcadiana Regional Airport), and plenty of sites in between.
  4. The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast.
  5. Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA.
  6. When the pictures from earlier surveys dropped, I think a lot of weather twitter didn’t realize how far inland locations like Grand Chenier are. This tweet from today at the coast got a lot more weather twitter traction.
  7. I tend to think that your majors forecast will still be within one, and possibly too conservative. Laura got there, and Sally almost got there without all conditions being perfect, and Teddy got there too. There’s no reason to think the back half of your window would be completely asymmetrical to the the first half, so I think your forecast will work out.
  8. Meanwhile, Cameron and Calcasieu (Lake Charles) parishes are still at around 98% power outage. It’s just another reflection of the times that Laura fell out of the national headlines so quickly. As one resident put it “where’s the telethon?”
  9. Was anyone else using Matt Lanza's curated twitter lists that he created for hurricane events (a Florence list, a Michael list, a Dorian list, for example)? That was such a good way to get updates and thoughts from meteorologists all around the country during high impact events. They all are gone this week which is disappointing.
  10. I must be missing something- what is this about ENE motion? 8 pm and 9 pm NHC updates were both NNE:
  11. That’s a huge area of 50%+ chance of TS force winds on the Euro ensembles.
  12. Speaking of weenie fodder and a less than realistic solution, check out the 12Z HMON. Apparently just a quick jaunt over the Chesapeake Bay will revive an inland-for-12-hours storm back to being a hurricane....
  13. Unless you really mean that an entire country should be blown up, why say so?
  14. It’s not a competition, fellow school system instructional specialist But I didn’t show what’s already in the cabinet underneath in my previous post.
  15. This one? It wasn’t late in the month but it’s the first one that comes to mind. 30” at Mt. Mitchell.