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About gymengineer

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  1. I must be missing something- what is this about ENE motion? 8 pm and 9 pm NHC updates were both NNE:
  2. That’s a huge area of 50%+ chance of TS force winds on the Euro ensembles.
  3. Speaking of weenie fodder and a less than realistic solution, check out the 12Z HMON. Apparently just a quick jaunt over the Chesapeake Bay will revive an inland-for-12-hours storm back to being a hurricane....
  4. Unless you really mean that an entire country should be blown up, why say so?
  5. It’s not a competition, fellow school system instructional specialist But I didn’t show what’s already in the cabinet underneath in my previous post.
  6. This one? It wasn’t late in the month but it’s the first one that comes to mind. 30” at Mt. Mitchell.
  7. We realized we could get Instacart liquor delivery from Costco two days ago. That’s a game changer for us as the liquor store was worse than anywhere else we’ve been in terms of people being able to maintain distance inside. We taste tested the two types of vodkas, the gin, and the wine. Kirkland brands will do fine for us, and now we can cross off the liquor store as the last remaining destination.
  8. Is KGAI data not useable?
  9. It’s terrible. We all know where the people who post incessantly in it stand. I think earlier on, it represented more of the 80/20 divide in the country. Now it’s just everything must be reacted to all the time. It’s a useless thread for communicating.
  10. But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago. Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York:
  11. It was showing in the 80,000’s when the 100,000-240,000 number was being thrown out by the task force. It went up to the 90,000’s, dropped down to around 60,000 and now is up to around 68,800. There were articles written about how no one could figure out where the 100,000 to 240,000 range came from. In any case, the model is not working out on the back side of the peak for Italy and Spain. The model is incapable of showing a gradual descent.
  12. Albeit not by much, the IHME model actually went up the last two updates.
  13. What Alexandria City P.S. is doing for grading in the 4th quarter is that it is pass/no record for secondary students (grades 6-12). So as long as a student earns a 60% or higher, 4th quarter counts as a pass at a flat 100%, with the 4 quarters being 25% each in weight (e.g. (72+68+75+100)/4)). If the student doesn't hit 60%, then 4th quarter does not exist grade-wise, which means the three previous quarters factor in 1/3 each for determining the final percent.
  14. This twitter thread gets at what a couple of us have been saying about the IHME model’s limitations on getting the backside of the curve correct based on data from Spain, Italy, and now New York: (Click on the tweet #26 itself to see the rest of the thread)
  15. If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.