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gymengineer

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    North Bethesda, MD 20852

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  1. There’s another prominent member too, like years and years active on the boards. But I’ll let him find his way to this thread.
  2. Did you peak at the 18Z GFS? It still is showing 0.4”+ (!!) liquid for the DC area until tomorrow afternoon. And in the very short term, 0.1-0.2” liquid between 7 pm and 1 am. It’s all alone at this point. After the totality of everything this season, this is just another example of how degraded model performance has been.
  3. Even in that people sure were miserable during the dry slot
  4. Yup, the high at IAD was 15F and 19F on the 2 days leading up to the event (2/19/15 and 2/20/15). Superb airmass that the models just didn’t have a good handle for and hence our great positive bust here in the suburbs.
  5. I think he’s referring to the 2/21/2015 event? The 2/2014 2-parter was a coastal storm.
  6. Is part of the issue for soundings vs. sleet or snow output on TT the color scheme? That first purple color for puking snow is awfully close to, if not the exact same shade, as one of the sleet shades of purple.
  7. As Matt said, something’s off about the WB Kuchera map. This is the hour DC and southwest flip to sleet. The 0.5+” band is narrower than in the 12K, but its nowhere as funky as the Kuchera map suggests.
  8. Most of my colleagues have gotten the second Moderna shot. Every single one had one or more of the following symptoms: fatigue, chills, body ache, muscle soreness, fever, severe headache. I am planning on taking Tylenol after the shot before going to bed.
  9. Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours.
  10. The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/15 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event.
  11. 2.6” at DCA before the changeover to ZR on 2/20/19 and 2.8” at DCA before the changeover on 2/15/16. Those performed more or less as expected and are just within the past 5 years.
  12. Solid ice, not sleet, covering the sides of the paved alley here in N. Bethesda beside my building. Untreated sidewalks are glazed over as well. More ice on an actual street surface than on the trees is a new experience for me.
  13. Good free radar alternative: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad On my phone, I have to tilt it sideways to be able to press the “play” button. But other than that, it works fine.
  14. Anyone else wondering what’s going on with losetoa6? Really off punctuation and syntax for someone who usually posts coherently? Weird grudge? ETA: I’m referring to the exchange with psuhoffman in the long range thread. Although the patterns in this thread are starting to make sense...
  15. Kind of interesting how this one 18Z 12K NAM run set off people in the way it did. Sure it was following the 12Z Euro, but it doesn’t even come close to agreeing with the 3K version of itself for the second wave. However we may end up failing, this one model run isn’t worth the anguish.
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