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gymengineer

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  1. Drunk? lower case writing, weird non-factual phrasings, etc.
  2. As its just south of Tokyo 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  3. It was one of the more extreme gradient seasons (like 92/93) with IAD going over 22" contrasting with DCA's pitiful seasonal total. You would have enjoyed January 10-22 that season. We had two moderate snowfalls followed by a severe cold wave. The first one was a rain to snow event that actually worked out, and the second one was a somewhat surprise cold 6" deal in our backyards. In the severe cold wave (the second of the season after the Christmas cold blast), IAD set its all time low of -18F in an ideal radiation night that hasn't been challenged since. March was well above average snowfall-wise, starting with the clipper bomb early in the month paralyzing traffic very similarly to 1/28/11. It was a 4-6" blitz in our area, followed by a rare mid-March freezing rain event. Then the month ended with a sub-970 mb low passing over the Delmarva causing plenty of coastal flooding but also a 4" snow in our area.
  4. Just to be clear-- are you disagreeing with the NHC about Sandy's rapid transition to extratropical close to landfall? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf Fig 21 and 23 especially explain their rationale--- not only did the eye dissipate but Sandy's lowest pressure relocated to the cooler air upon transition.
  5. Do you think Sandy was too late in ET transition to count for your scenario? Even if it never hit Cuba and caused billions in damage there, there's no way the name would have remained on the list just based on the US damage.
  6. For me, it would be a radar loop of Carol making landfall. Perhaps the most purely tropical hit of the famous New England storms?
  7. That Sampit River boat reading of 120 mph (~60 ft elevation) would again support a higher maximum gust estimate in the RMW zone. Since I support the NHC's assigned landfall intensity, the other data indicating Category 4 is what made his wind map based on damage to trees and structures stand out as an outlier. Hmm, to add some more confusion, this other map does not match the original one I imbedded. It's somehow tied to Fujita as well, but has a zone of 145 mph+ gusts:
  8. Here's one: Hugo was clearly a Category 4 in its SC landfall based on recon data. The wind map of peak gusts created by Fujita himself was strangely tepid in the eyewall zone. It's even more curious since the Fujita scale wind increments would later be *lowered* after his death, meaning his own estimates of wind speeds corresponding to levels of damage were deemed as over-estimates.
  9. I enjoyed my drive in to work. Squally tropical rains feel different than "regular" rain. I was pretty soaked even with an umbrella. DCA: 22mph/g30.
  10. The NHC assumes that the highest sustained wind didn't happen to be right over an official reporting station. In other words, if you had a continuous row of calibrated anemometers stretching across the entire diameter of maximum winds, at least one of those anemometers should record a sustained hurricane force wind at standard height. It's not just with category 1 hurricanes. Category 4 hurricanes like Hugo and Charley, and even Andrew--the assigned maximum sustained wind is not recorded by any official station. I think Celia (1970) may have been the only exception in Corpus Christi.
  11. Highest observation from an official station that I could find: Biloxi (KBIX) 53/70 That's about par for the course from official stations for a category 1 landfall. Just glance at the Tropical Cyclone Reports from category 1 landfalls like Dolly 2008, Gaston 2004, Cindy 2005. There aren't going to be abundant hurricane-force gusts in official stations. Maybe an unofficial station somewhere between Biloxi and Mobile recorded a >73 mph gust.
  12. Biloxi (KBIX) actually reached 53/70. It was in between hours of course (11:36 pm). https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBIX/2017/10/7/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Biloxi&req_state=MS&req_statename=Mississippi&reqdb.zip=39530&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999
  13. About a 3 ft surge and rising at the coast guard sector Mobile in Mobile Bay thus far.
  14. I'm curious how Nate will compare to Ivan wind-wise in Birmingham. They look to be at the near ideal spot for strong gusts.
  15. Last season, those would have been "inland TS watches," right? That's why I found it weird for news sources to make a big deal about Atlanta being under a TS warning for the first time ever with Irma. That product wasn't available for inland areas before this season, I think. I may be wrong...