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    North Bethesda, MD 20852

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  1. gymengineer

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/05/there-was-no-warning-heres-how-two-damaging-tornadoes-one-deadly-hit-maryland-friday-night/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f2f47a4faf5c I think this event- the Friday night tornadoes- is going to hold up years from now as one of the most important weather stories of the decade for our region, especially with the lack of tornado warnings. It's been a big deal for a long time now to have fatalities fall outside a tornado warning anywhere in the country. (I get that this news has just been drowned out by everything else that's going on.)
  2. gymengineer

    November Discobs Thread

    Was the La Plata tornado in 2002 really the last fatal MD tornado?
  3. Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust.
  4. gymengineer

    Major Hurricane Michael

    And impact on the affected areas after or during an ERC depend on other factors too, such as what happens to the RMW, *where* the biggest population centers are in the storm’s path, and whether an expansion of the wind field actually makes things worse even if the max wind speed comes down. Maria is the ultimate example of how an ERC probably made things worse for the overall landfall. It was incomplete so the inner eyewall was still swinging around the periphery of the larger eye— and we have ground truth video from iCyclone of how crazy the conditions still were in areas impacted by the inner eyewall. Sure, max sustained wind speed dropped by 15 knots during the process, but the inner eyewall areas still got an upper Cat 4 hit, and the tripling of the eye diameter meant the most populated areas of the island got mauled by the dominant eyewall. An eyewall around a 9 n mi eye would not have crippled the entire island in the way that an eyewall around a 28 n mi eye did. We had discussions after Maria about the extreme total damage across a relatively small target—$90 billion is a crazy number for Puerto Rico plus the US Virgin Islands, but it makes sense when anyone loops the radar up to the last functioning image as the outer eyewall is about to consume the entire island. Gilbert ‘88 in Jamaica came up as another example of that type of bulldozing.
  5. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    41/g56 at KRIC is very impressive. Almost 600,000 power outages in NC now and more than 300,000 outages in VA.
  6. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yes, the winds over the Chesapeake Bay are being unanimously modeled as higher than over any coastline currently under a tropical storm warning. @WxWatcher007 thanks for bringing up the early Friday fun for parts of our subforum in the main thread. Too bad it got lost in the shuffle of bad posts. So many bad posts.
  7. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    I'm really curious what the storm surge numbers will end up being. First, I'm glad to see the NHC start to de-couple surge values from the SS scale (like in this document: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf). We know some specific locations such as New Bern and Wilmington set highest water levels. There are some hints now that some of the Atlantic beaches may have also seen very impressive surges. We'll see. If it ends up that Florence beat Fran in the surge department throughout much of the coastline, then the only thing that really could have been much more "historic" for the coastline is the wind. One aspect of the wind that was highly unusual for a storm this far north is how readily inland stations gusted to 70+ mph. That speaks how spread out the wind shield was. Kind of like how Irma taking the path it did (into Cuba and then the west coast of FL) weakened the storm significantly but exposed more of the FL peninsula to dirty-side hurricane force gusts than a just-west of Miami path would have.
  8. gymengineer

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    This will be one of the iconic images from the entire event:
  9. gymengineer

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Something about this photo.....just wow.
  10. gymengineer

    September Discobs Thread

    Check out *this* video. Incredible to see from anywhere in this subforum.
  11. gymengineer

    September Discobs Thread

  12. gymengineer

    September Discobs Thread

  13. gymengineer

    Florence Observations

    I’m glad the Wilmington radar just came back online. To be missing both that and the Moorehead City one would make tracking these training cells much more difficult.
  14. gymengineer

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Other than Isaac before it got upgraded to a hurricane, this must be the highest storm surge forecast for a tropical storm. STORM SURGE: The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft
  15. gymengineer

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Cape Fear River at Wilmington just beat the record crest from Matthew in 2016.